Core Insights - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares have decreased by 13.1% over the last 21 trading days, indicating a shift in investor interest away from AI-related stocks and highlighting execution risks and margin pressures faced by the company [1] - The stock's recent decline raises questions about whether this weakness is temporary or indicative of deeper issues within the company [1] Company Overview - Super Micro Computer is valued at $19 billion with a revenue of $21 billion, currently priced at $31.66 per share [3] - The company has experienced a revenue growth of 11.9% over the last 12 months, with an operating margin of 4.4% [3] - The liquidity position shows a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.17 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.29 [3] Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 36.0 and a P/EBIT ratio of 28.9, indicating a moderate valuation [8] - Historically, the stock has offered a median return of 30.9% within a year following sharp declines since 2010 [8] Downturn Resilience - If SMCI stock were to dip another 20-30% to $22, it has been noted that the stock has experienced a slightly worse impact than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns [5] - The stock fell 34.5% from a peak of $35.33 on August 7, 2023, to $23.15 on September 21, 2023, compared to a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% for the S&P 500 [9] - Historical performance shows that the stock has fully regained its pre-Crisis peak after significant declines, including a 45.8% drop during the 2020 Covid Pandemic and a 59.6% drop from 2017 to 2018 [10][11] Investment Strategy - A well-diversified portfolio is recommended to mitigate risks and seize growth opportunities, as individual stock choices can be unpredictable [12] - The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which includes 30 different stocks, has consistently outperformed its benchmark indices, delivering superior returns with reduced risk [13]

Super Micro Computer, better known as Supermicro (SMCI), has hit a rough patch after a strong run driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The company’s shares have tumbled more than 33% over the past month as investors reacted to disappointing results and cautious guidance. Supermicro, a leading provider of high-performance servers and storage systems that power AI workloads, has seen its once-blistering growth start to cool. While the company remains a key player in the AI infrastructure market, ...

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock has seen a decline of nearly 30% over the past month due to disappointing quarterly earnings and margin concerns, yet it presents a potential investment opportunity as it trades within a historical support range [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - SMCI is currently trading between $36.88 and $40.76, a support range where it has rebounded significantly in the past, with an average peak return of 37.2% after five instances of similar trading levels over the last decade [3]. - The stock has experienced significant downturns in the past, including a 66% drop during the Global Financial Crisis and a 34% decrease during last year's inflation shock [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - SMCI has shown revenue growth of 11.9% over the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 63.1% over the past three years [6]. - The company has a free cash flow margin of approximately 1.0% and an operating margin of 4.4% LTM [6]. - The lowest annual revenue growth recorded for SMCI in the last three years was 37.1% [6]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 29.2 [6]. Group 3: Business Overview - Super Micro Computer specializes in high-performance modular server and storage solutions, catering to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, AI, 5G, and edge computing sectors [5].

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has experienced a significant stock drop of -11% in a single day and -23.7% over the past month, prompting a reassessment of its competitive position [2][5] - The company specializes in high-performance modular server and storage solutions for enterprise data centers, cloud computing, AI, 5G, and edge computing applications [3] Financial Performance - SMCI's revenue growth over the last 12 months stands at an impressive 46.6%, outperforming competitors such as MKSI, OLED, BMI, and AVT [6] - The company's operating margin is reported at 5.7%, which is modest compared to competitors like OLED, which has an operating margin of 38.9% [6] - SMCI's stock has increased by 51.7% in the past year, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23.9, indicating strong performance relative to its peers [6] Investment Strategy - Regular evaluation of alternatives is emphasized as a fundamental aspect of a robust investment strategy, particularly in light of SMCI's recent stock performance [2] - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which includes 30 stocks, has a history of exceeding benchmark indices like the S&P 500, suggesting a diversified approach may yield better returns with lower risk [7]

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock has experienced a significant decline of 28.4% in less than a month, dropping from $58.68 on October 8, 2025, to $42.03 currently, primarily due to disappointing first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings results released in early November 2025 [1][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of $5 billion for the quarter, which was significantly below expectations and represented a 15% decrease year-over-year [3] - Adjusted earnings per share were also lower than anticipated, attributed to "design win upgrades" that delayed some expected first-quarter revenue to the second quarter [3] Stock Recovery Potential - There is a strong possibility of stock recovery based on historical trends of rebounds following dips, with an Attractive rating currently assigned to the stock [4] - Historically, SMCI has averaged a median return of 39% over one year and a peak return of 67% after experiencing sharp dips of over 30% within 30 days [5][7] Market Position and Product Offering - SMCI specializes in high-performance modular server and storage solutions, targeting enterprise data centers, cloud computing, AI, 5G, and edge computing sectors [5] - The company has encountered 10 instances since January 1, 2010, where a dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was met, with a median peak return of 67% within one year of such events [7]