There are fears that shadow banking could fuel the next financial crisis The $2tn (£1.5tn) private credit industry is being quizzed by the City watchdog over fears its unrecognised losses could fuel a financial system meltdown, The Telegraph can reveal. Officials from the Financial Conduct Authority have in recent weeks been piling pressure on so-called shadow banks – an increasingly critical source of funding for the speculative AI boom – to more rigorously mark down the value of loans that are at risk ...

Core Viewpoint - The Treasury is criticized for its passive approach towards the risks associated with the shadow banking bubble and private markets, which could threaten the UK's financial stability [1][2][5]. Group 1: Treasury's Engagement and Risks - The Treasury has shown a "limited grasp" of the risks posed by the private markets boom, leading to concerns about financial stability [1][2]. - The report highlights a passive attitude from the Treasury, which is surprising given the potential risks from shadow banking and private markets [2]. - The rapid growth of private credit, particularly corporate loans from non-bank lenders, raises concerns about stability and the impact of a potential crash on the financial system [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Concerns and Warnings - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warns that lax lending standards could lead to more issues in the future [3]. - The collapse of two US companies, First Brands and Tricolor, has fueled concerns about weakening lending standards [2]. - Lord Hollick emphasizes the need for the Treasury to actively seek information and engage with the risks associated with private markets, as they involve significant amounts of savers' money [3][4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions and Market Growth - The Bank of England is praised for planning the world's first "stress test" of the shadow banking sector, with results expected in early 2027 [5][6]. - The report notes that while tougher regulations have increased the resilience of banks, they have also pushed some lending activities outside the regulated banking sector [6]. - Britain's private market has grown by 56% since 2015, reaching $185 billion (£138 billion), making it the second-largest after the United States [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is conducting a stress test on the private equity sector to assess its resilience in a hypothetical financial crisis, highlighting concerns over the opacity and risks associated with the $11 trillion shadow banking market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stress Test Overview - Major financial groups such as KKR, Blackstone, Apollo, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management are participating in the stress test [2]. - The system-wide exploratory exercise (SWES) will be conducted next year, with full conclusions expected by 2027 [3]. Group 2: Market Growth and Employment Impact - The private equity and private credit sectors have expanded from $3 trillion to $11 trillion in assets over the past decade [4]. - In the UK, 10% of private sector workers are employed by private equity-backed companies, which account for 15% of corporate debt and a significant portion of riskier lending [4]. Group 3: Recent Market Concerns - The collapse of American companies First Brands and Tricolor has raised alarms about potential risks in the private credit market, which heavily relies on lending to companies rather than banks [5]. - A downturn in private markets could adversely affect banks that lend to private equity-backed firms, potentially undermining financial stability and economic growth [5]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Risks - Private equity-owned companies currently employ approximately two million people in the UK, indicating a significant impact on employment [6]. - A rapid contraction of companies backed by private equity could lead to increased unemployment and negatively affect related markets, such as housing and mortgage lending [6]. Group 5: Industry Characteristics and Risks - The rapid growth of private credit is characterized by its opacity and illiquidity, which may lead to adverse outcomes [7].

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock is facing a $500 million loss due to alleged fraud in its shadow banking business, raising concerns about the stability of the shadow banking industry [1][2][6]. Group 1: BlackRock and HPS Investment Partners - BlackRock's private credit investment arm, HPS Investment Partners, is pursuing legal action to recover loans made to a US telecom firm accused of faking customer payments [1][2]. - HPS provided loans to Bankim Brahmbhatt, owner of Broadband Telecom and Bridgevoice, under the condition that he pledged customer receivables as collateral [3][5]. - Allegations include that Brahmbhatt forged contracts, emails, and invoices to misrepresent the legitimacy of the receivables [3][6]. Group 2: Industry Concerns - The incident has intensified worries about the opaque nature of the shadow banking industry, which has attracted significant investments but is now facing potential crises [2][6]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised alarms regarding the unregulated private credit market, while JP Morgan's CEO has warned of hidden risks within the financial system [7][6]. Group 3: Legal and Financial Implications - A lawsuit was filed by Alter Domus, a financial services firm acting for HPS, in August, and several companies linked to Brahmbhatt have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection [5][6]. - The recent failures of companies like First Brands and Tricolor have caused market instability, highlighting the risks associated with bad loans in the financial sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The $3 trillion shadow banking industry is exhibiting "bubble-like characteristics" that could potentially lead to a global financial shock, according to Fitch Ratings [1]. Group 1: Market Concerns - The recent $12 billion collapse of First Brands and warnings from two regional US banks about bad loans have raised concerns about underlying issues in the private credit market [2]. - The private credit market has grown by 50% in recent years, with the IMF estimating that banks globally have approximately $4.5 trillion in exposure to private credit players [3]. Group 2: Risk Factors - Fitch notes that private credit is transitioning from a niche product to a significant asset class, increasing in both scale and complexity, which could expose the financial system to unexpected risks [4][5]. - The involvement of individual investors alongside major banks and fund managers, along with increased leverage among borrowers, are contributing to the bubble-like trends [5]. - "Spread compression," where investors accept lower yields on risky investments, may indicate weaker lending standards [6]. Group 3: Current Market Dynamics - Despite the emerging risks, Fitch has not observed "classic bubble signs," as investors are still cautious in pricing high-risk credit [7]. - Banks' exposure to risky borrowers is primarily indirect, and they possess limited liquidity risk, allowing them to withdraw funds from private credit vehicles if necessary [7]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Signs of an economic slowdown in the US could lead to increased defaults among heavily indebted borrowers, particularly in sectors like auto parts and used cars [8].

Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The FTSE 100 index increased by 0.25% as markets closed, driven by optimism surrounding potential trade talks between the US and China [1] - British stocks saw a boost as investors returned to the London markets following fears of renewed trade tensions, which had previously led to declines [7] - The price of gold experienced its largest drop in four years, falling by 3.8%, as hopes for progress in US-China trade talks diminished its appeal as a safe haven [10][11] Group 2: Private Credit Market Concerns - The Bank of England is considering a "system-wide exploratory scenario" stress test to assess the stability of the private credit market, often referred to as shadow banking, amid rising concerns [2][32] - Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, expressed serious concerns that recent high-profile bankruptcies in the US could indicate broader risks within the private credit sector [3][13] - The private credit market, valued at $3 trillion, is drawing parallels to the financial engineering practices that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis [6][5] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges and Government Borrowing - The UK government borrowed £20.2 billion in September, marking the highest borrowing for that month since the pandemic, with total public sector spending rising significantly [53][54] - Economists warn that the Chancellor may need to implement tax increases of around £25 billion to balance the books, as current fiscal headroom has been nearly eliminated [15][23] - The Office for Budget Responsibility noted that while tax receipts have improved, overall borrowing remains higher than forecast due to local authority overspending and bankruptcies [27][28]

Core Insights - Wall Street investors are selling shares in major money managers due to concerns over their $3 trillion push into lending, with shares in Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, and Ares dropping over 10% in the last month despite a rising US stock market [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 has increased by 3.4% during the same period, with a year-to-date gain of over 15% driven by excitement around artificial intelligence [2] - The money managers affected were initially private equity investors but have expanded into private credit, contributing to a $3 trillion private credit market that has grown by $1 trillion in the past five years [3] Group 2: Risks in Lending - Concerns are rising about borrowers' ability to repay private loans, especially in light of potential stock market crashes linked to over-inflated tech stocks [4] - The collapse of First Brands, a US car parts supplier, has intensified fears, with reports of $2.3 billion "vanishing" from a private lender [5] - JP Morgan has indicated that despite low default rates, there are signs of stress among borrowers, suggesting potential widespread issues if economic conditions worsen [5][6] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The private credit sector has seen significant involvement from pension and insurance funds, as well as banks, indicating its extensive reach [6][7] - Apollo has announced plans to invest up to $4.5 billion in projects with EDF, including the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station, and aims to lend $275 billion annually over the next five years [7]