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Alluvial Fund Third Quarter 2025 Letter To Partners
Seeking Alphaยท 2025-10-23 00:15
Performance Overview - Alluvial Fund achieved a return of 15.5% in Q3 2025, with a total return of 33.6% year-to-date, outperforming benchmark indexes [3][8] - This performance marks the third-best quarterly result in the fund's nine-year history [3] Portfolio Highlights - The largest position in the portfolio is Zegona Communications, which is undergoing significant asset sales that will enhance cash flow and reduce leverage [11][12] - FitLife Brands acquired Irwin Naturals out of bankruptcy for $42.5 million, funded by cash and bank debt, and is expected to perform well due to strong leadership [15][16] - PHI Group, a helicopter operator, is noted for its profitability and potential for a sale or public listing, trading at half the value of peers [29] Market Insights - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of the current market rally, particularly regarding speculative companies like Rigetti Computing, which has a market value of $18 billion despite minimal revenue [9][10] - The fund maintains a cautious approach, focusing on companies with durable cash flows and valuable assets [10] Sector and Geographic Allocation - The fund's geographic allocation is primarily in the United States (59.1%), followed by the United Kingdom (23.2%) and Eurozone (10.1%) [23] - Sector allocation includes Communications (21.0%), Consumer Staples (20.7%), and Real Estate (12.9%) [24] Notable Developments - NewPrinces Group plans to list a minority stake in UK food producer Princes, potentially realizing significant value from its investment [19] - Unidata SpA, an Italian broadband provider, has seen cash flow grow by 67% since 2022, yet its shares are down nearly 40%, indicating a potential undervaluation [25] Risk Management - The fund is trimming its position in Zegona for risk control, emphasizing the importance of managing exposure to unforeseen negative events [14] - The fund's allocation to Expert Markets securities is limited to 10% to manage liquidity risk [28]