Group 1 - The article discusses the author's previous hold rating on Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO), indicating a desire for more clarity on tariff situations and macroeconomic conditions [1] - The author emphasizes a diverse investment background, incorporating fundamental, technical, and momentum investing strategies to enhance their investment process [1] - The purpose of writing on Seeking Alpha is to track investment ideas' performance and connect with like-minded investors [1] Group 2 - There are no disclosed stock, option, or derivative positions in any mentioned companies, nor plans to initiate such positions within the next 72 hours [2] - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and is not compensated for it, aside from Seeking Alpha [2] - Seeking Alpha clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results and that the views expressed may not reflect the platform's overall stance [3]

Core Insights - The year 2025 has been characterized as interesting for the retail sector, with ongoing challenges and changes impacting operations [2] - The changing trade war has influenced the company's navigation strategies, but positive initiatives are yielding results [2] - New store growth has led to positive comparable store sales in the mid-single digits for recently opened locations [2] - The company's dot-com business is experiencing acceleration due to a back-to-basics approach that enhances site navigation [3]

Core Insights - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. reported revenue of $1.6 billion for the quarter ended July 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.3% but a slight miss of 0.67% against the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.61 billion [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.94, down from $2.03 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of -8.49% compared to the consensus estimate of $2.12 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Comparable Sales Growth was 0.2%, outperforming the six-analyst average estimate of -0.4% [4] - Total Merchandise Sales reached $1.59 billion, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $1.57 billion, with a year-over-year change of +3.3% [4] - Net Sales in the Merchandise Division for Outdoors was $448.94 million, surpassing the average estimate of $431.73 million, marking a year-over-year increase of +14.6% [4] - Net Sales for Sports and Recreation was $369.79 million, falling short of the average estimate of $382.84 million, representing a year-over-year decline of -8% [4] - Net Sales for Footwear was $323.24 million, slightly above the average estimate of $321.82 million, with a year-over-year increase of +3.6% [4] - Net Sales for Apparel was $451.12 million, exceeding the average estimate of $429.69 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of +3.3% [4] - Other Sales amounted to $6.75 million, significantly below the average estimate of $26.31 million, with a year-over-year change of +2.7% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Academy Sports and Outdoors have returned +3.9% over the past month, slightly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.8% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q2 2025 were approximately $1.6 billion, up 3.3% year-over-year, with a comparable sales increase of 0.2% [5][18] - Gross margin was 36%, down two basis points from the previous year, while merchandise margin improved by 40 basis points [19][20] - Operating income was $172 million, and diluted earnings per share was $1.85, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.94 [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The dot-com business grew approximately 18% during Q2, contributing positively to overall sales [5][18] - Performance across major categories was consistent, with low single-digit increases in footwear, apparel, sports and recreation, and outdoor categories [6][10] - Seasonal categories like swim and summer footwear experienced a slow start but rebounded in late June and July [6][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong double-digit growth in foot traffic was observed among consumers in the top two income quintiles (households making over $100,000) [8][9] - Traffic share remained flat in the middle-income segment ($50,000 to $100,000), while there was erosion in the lower-income cohort (under $50,000), though at a slower pace than in Q1 [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company’s primary growth strategy includes opening new stores, with three new locations opened in Q2, bringing the total to 306 stores [10][11] - Focus on enhancing the dot-com business through improved site navigation, order fulfillment, and expanded product assortment [12][15] - Initiatives to improve existing store productivity include adding popular brands and implementing new technology like RFID handheld scanners [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the business momentum, particularly in light of positive comp sales and market share gains [10][23] - The company is closely monitoring consumer behavior in response to inflation and pricing adjustments, with a focus on maintaining a strong value proposition [8][32] - Future guidance indicates a tightening of the low end of comp sales expectations, now ranging from negative 3% to positive 1% for the year [22][23] Other Important Information - The company has taken measures to mitigate tariff impacts, including adjusting unit buys and optimizing pricing strategies [17][39] - Inventory levels are expected to normalize as the year progresses, with a current elevated inventory per store [20][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on consumer behavior post back-to-school period - Management noted continued episodic shopping patterns, with positive comps during back-to-school but a slight pullback afterward attributed to less clearance activity [26][27] Question: Impact of tariff pricing on average ticket - Average unit retails (AURs) were up low to mid-single digits, with expectations for further price adjustments in the back half of the year [29][30] Question: Guidance on SG&A and operating leverage - SG&A is expected to deleverage by approximately 100 basis points for the full year, with continued investments in growth initiatives [35][36] Question: Promotional environment and merchandise margin - The promotional environment remains competitive, with higher take rates on promotions, but merchandise margin has not significantly benefited from product mix changes [73][74] Question: Performance of higher-income consumers - The top two income quintiles showed double-digit traffic growth, which is expected to continue driving comp growth [75][76] Question: Expansion of Nike and Jordan assortments - The company has significantly expanded its Jordan assortment since launch, with plans for further expansion in the coming year [80][86]

Core Viewpoint - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASO) is given a hold rating due to concerns about the near-term outlook despite positive execution in store expansion, premium brand partnerships, and traction with higher-income customers [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company shows encouraging execution on store expansion and premium brand partnerships [1] - There is a noted increase in traction with higher-income customers [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - Weakness is observed among core lower-income consumers, which poses a risk to the company's performance [1] - Inventory risks and macroeconomic uncertainties are highlighted as significant concerns for the company [1]

Financial Performance - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $135 billion, a decrease of 09% year-over-year[29] - Comparable sales decreased by 37%[29] - Gross margin was 340%[29] - GAAP EPS was $068, while adjusted EPS was $076[29] Growth and Expansion - Academy Sports + Outdoors operates 303 stores across 21 states[9] - The company opened 5 new stores in Q1 2025[12, 29] - The company plans to open 20-25 new stores in 2025[12] - Year One Sales target for new stores is $12 million - $16 million, with a spend of $4 million - $5 million per store[14] Revised Fiscal 2025 Guidance - Net sales are projected to be between $597 billion and $6265 billion[38] - Comparable sales are expected to range from -40% to 10%[38] - Adjusted earnings per common share, diluted, are projected to be between $545 and $625[38]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $1,350 million, down 0.9% year-over-year, resulting in a negative 3.7% comparable sales (comp) [11][25] - Operating income was $69.3 million, with diluted EPS at $0.68 and adjusted EPS at $0.76 [30] - Gross margin improved to 34%, a 60 basis point increase from the previous year, driven by merchandise margin expansion [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Footwear and apparel were the strongest categories, with athletic footwear posting a positive 4.5% comp, driven by brands like Nike and Brooks [26][27] - Outdoor category saw low single-digit declines primarily due to softer sales in ammunition, while fishing and firearms performed well [12][28] - E-commerce channel experienced a positive 10% comp for the quarter, with significant contributions from the Jordan brand [25][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Increased foot traffic from customers with household incomes over $100,000, indicating a shift towards value-seeking behavior [10][37] - The company noted a sequential improvement in sales throughout the quarter, with April finishing positively after a slow February [11][44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing exposure to products made in China, aiming to decrease this from 9% to approximately 6% by year-end [8][10] - New store expansion remains a key growth engine, with plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in 2025 [14][15] - The company is leveraging technology, including RFID and handheld devices, to improve inventory accuracy and customer experience [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about navigating the current tariff environment while maintaining value for customers [5][24] - The company anticipates continued pressure on consumer spending due to inflation but believes its value proposition will attract more customers [24][108] - Guidance for 2025 was updated to reflect a range of sales outcomes based on potential tariff scenarios, with expected sales between $5.97 billion and $6.26 billion [35][36] Other Important Information - The company returned over $100 million of free cash flow to investors in Q1, including share repurchases and dividends [33] - Strategic investments in digital and supply chain technologies are expected to normalize SG&A expenses as the year progresses [30][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Retention of higher-income consumers - Management noted that higher-income consumers are shopping more frequently and are retaining their loyalty, shopping across various product categories [40][41] Question: Performance in May and comp trends - May showed a slight decline in sales, but management remains optimistic about Q2 due to upcoming shopping events like Father's Day [44][45] Question: Impact of weather and consumer health - Management indicated that weather had a significant impact on sales, particularly in basketball and golf, and noted that consumers are cautious in their spending [94][50] Question: Tariff outlook for FY26 - Management emphasized the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate future tariff impacts, but specifics on the tariff situation remain uncertain [79][80] Question: Gross margin guidance - Management explained that gross margin guidance remains unchanged due to strategic inventory management and partnerships with suppliers to mitigate cost increases [54][56]