Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. ASO is strengthening its merchandising, RFID technology and operational capabilities to drive more consistent performance amid choppy sales trends.Reflecting a positive outlook for the company’s trajectory, Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernández reiterated the Outperform rating on Academy Sports and Outdoors, raising the price forecast from $58 to $65.Fernández highlighted Academy is exploring improvements in supply chain, e‑commerce, marketing, loyalty and custom ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Products industry is experiencing challenges due to the ongoing tariff war and soft macroeconomic data, but there is a positive trend in fitness product sales driven by growing health and fitness awareness [1][3] - The industry includes companies that provide a range of recreational products and services, thriving on economic growth that fuels consumer demand [2] Trends Impacting the Industry - The tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump is affecting the industry, with concerns about its impact on the U.S. economy amid inflation and global geopolitical tensions [3] - The golf industry is booming, with rising demand for golf equipment due to technological advancements and increased participation among young people, particularly in emerging markets like India and China [4] - There is robust demand for fitness-related products in the U.S., driven by health awareness and lifestyle changes, leading to increased investment in home workout equipment and digital fitness platforms [5] Industry Performance - The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Products industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 204, placing it in the bottom 17% of over 246 Zacks industries, indicating dismal near-term prospects [6][7] - The industry's earnings outlook is negative, with a 13.6% decrease in northbound earnings estimates since January 31, 2025 [8] Stock Market Performance - The industry has outperformed the S&P 500, with a collective growth of 49.8% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 11.8% increase [10] Valuation Metrics - The industry trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 35.08X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 22.64X and the sector's 18.45X [13] Notable Companies - **Peloton**: Transitioning to a profitability-driven recovery, with high-margin subscription revenues contributing nearly 70% of total sales. Expected fiscal 2025 earnings growth of 72.9% and a stock increase of 84.8% in the past year [16][17] - **Playboy**: Benefiting from an asset-light licensing model and a rebound in its China licensing business, with a stock increase of 137.5% in the past year [20][21] - **Academy Sports and Outdoors**: Gaining from a growth strategy focused on brand partnerships and digital upgrades, but shares have declined by 2.3% in the past year with expected earnings decline of 1.7% for fiscal 2025 [24]

Q3 EARNINGS Fiscal 2021 Academy Sports + Outdoors delivered the best third quarter financial results in the Company's history. Q 3 2 0 2 0 $1.60 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 2 0 1 9 $1.15 $1.35 2 0 21 $1.59 IN BILLIONS Net Sales IN MILLIONS Gross Margin Q 3 2 0 2 0 $400.0 $600.0 $800.0 $200.0 $0.0 $440.5 RATE 32.7% 2 0 1 9 $362.4 RATE 31.6% | $560.8 | RATE | | --- | --- | | 35.2% | | 2 0 21 Comparable Sales Q 3 2 0 2 0 20.0 30.0 10.0 0.0 2 0 1 9 6.2% 2 0 21 17.9% 16.5% This is the ninth consecutive quarter of positive ...

Q4 + Fiscal 2021 Earnings Academy Sports + Outdoors reported record fourth quarter 2021 results. Net Sales IN MILLIONS Q4 2019 2020 2021 $1.60 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 $1.8 $1.6 $1.4 Q4 2019 2020 2021 $400.0 $600.0 $800.0 $200.0 $0.0 $584.1 $499.1 $370.5 RATE 27.0% RATE 31.2% RATE 32.3% 2 Gross Margin IN BILLIONS Q4 Pro Forma Adjusted Net Income* Q4 Pro Forma Adjusted Diluted EPS* Q4 2019 2020 2021 $200.0 $100.0 $0.0 $17.6 $103.1 $145.3 Q4 2019 2020 2021 $1.00 $2.00 $0.00 $1.09 $0.23 *See Non-GAAP Measures Reconcilia ...

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) as a significant opportunity for growth, similar to past successes with companies like Amazon and Nvidia [1] Group 1: Company Summaries - **The Honest Company**: Specializes in personal and baby care products with clean ingredients, reported $97 million in revenue for Q1 2025, a 13% year-over-year increase, and is positioned for profitable growth [4] - **Stride**: A technology-based learning company with an 18% year-over-year revenue increase to $613 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, and profits of $99 million, with analysts predicting a 14% rise in stock price [6] - **Revolve Group**: An online fashion retailer utilizing AI, reported a 10% year-over-year sales increase and a 5% rise in net income, with mixed analyst opinions on stock price targets [8][9] - **Nomad**: A European frozen foods company with a 6% compound annual growth rate over the past decade, despite a recent sales decrease, all analysts rate it a buy with a target price 40% higher than current levels [10] - **Driven Brands**: Offers automotive services, reported a 7% sales increase in Q1, and plans to open 200 new stores in 2025, with a 30% average price target increase anticipated [11] - **Oddity Tech**: A cosmetics and skincare company using AI, reported a 27% revenue increase in Q1, but is seen as potentially expensive in the short term [12] - **Urban Outfitters**: Experienced an 11% revenue increase in Q1 fiscal 2026, with earnings per share nearly doubling, and all analysts expect further stock price increases [13] - **Shake Shack**: Reported a 10.5% sales increase in Q1 and more than doubled net income, with a positive long-term outlook despite a recent stock price surge [14] - **Academy Sports**: A sporting goods retailer facing short-term pressure but has long-term growth potential through new store openings and digital expansion, with a 20% average price target increase [16] - **Chef's Warehouse**: A specialty foods distributor with a 9% revenue increase in Q1 and earnings per share rising from $0.05 to $0.25, all analysts predict an 8% to 20% stock price increase [17][18]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of thorough research and understanding of businesses before making investment decisions [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Insights - The author has a beneficial long position in ASO shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The focus is on identifying and developing deep knowledge of great businesses, which suggests a strategic approach to investment [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The article highlights the role of individual investors in the stock market and the need for education in investing [1] - It mentions that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a common consideration in investment analysis [3]

Core Viewpoint - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASO) is given a hold rating due to concerns about the near-term outlook despite positive execution in store expansion, premium brand partnerships, and traction with higher-income customers [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company shows encouraging execution on store expansion and premium brand partnerships [1] - There is a noted increase in traction with higher-income customers [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - Weakness is observed among core lower-income consumers, which poses a risk to the company's performance [1] - Inventory risks and macroeconomic uncertainties are highlighted as significant concerns for the company [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of making contrarian bets based on macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories to achieve outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile [1] - The author has over fifteen years of experience in the investment field, focusing on identifying potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure stating that the author has no current stock or derivative positions in any mentioned companies and has no plans to initiate any such positions in the near future [2] - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations or advice, highlighting that past performance is not indicative of future results [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Truist Securities analyst Joseph Civello maintains a Hold rating on Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. while raising the price forecast from $45 to $47, indicating a conflict between the company's successful transformation and ongoing macroeconomic pressures on its middle-income demographic [1][7]. - The analyst acknowledges operational improvements since 2019 but expresses caution regarding the prolonged suppression of consumer demand due to the challenging economic climate [2][8]. - Academy Sports reported quarterly adjusted earnings per share of 76 cents, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 90 cents, and net sales of $1.35 billion, which also fell short of the expected $1.37 billion [3][8]. Group 2 - The first-quarter sales for Academy Sports experienced a slight decline of 0.9%, with comparable sales falling by 3.7% [3]. - Despite the success of expanded Nike and new Jordan collections, overall traffic fell mid-single digits in the first quarter, and May comparable sales declined low-single digits due to a volatile macro environment [4][8]. - The analyst projects FY25 earnings per share to be $6.00 and has lowered the FY26 earnings estimate from $6.80 to $6.60 [8].

Sales Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a comparable sales decrease of 3.7%, an improvement from a 5.7% decline in the same quarter of 2024[83] - Net sales decreased by $12.8 million, or 0.9%, in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to decreased comparable sales[98] - Comparable sales decreased by 3.7%, driven by a 5.2% decrease in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 1.5% increase in average ticket[100] Store Operations - The company operated 303 stores as of May 3, 2025, an increase from 284 stores at the end of the prior year quarter, with 5 new stores opened during the current quarter[78] - The company opened 5 new stores in Q1 2025, contributing $45.3 million to net sales, with a total of 19 new stores opened since Q1 2024[99] - The average store size is approximately 70,000 gross square feet, with locations primarily in the southern United States[77] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, was $109,764, compared to $142,578 for the same period in 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 23%[112] - Adjusted Net Income for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, was $51,597, down from $81,620 in the prior year, representing a decline of about 37%[114] - Adjusted Earnings per Share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2025 was $0.76 (diluted), compared to $1.08 in the same quarter of 2024, a decrease of approximately 30%[114] Cost and Expenses - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose by $36.2 million, or 10.2%, to $389.6 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to strategic investments in new stores and technology[103] - SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales increased from 25.9% in Q1 2024 to 28.8% in Q1 2025[95] - Interest expense decreased by $0.4 million, or 4.7%, in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to lower interest rates[105] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Net cash provided by operating activities for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, was $157,472, down from $199,677 in the prior year, indicating a decline of about 21%[116] - Capital expenditures for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, totaled $50,830,000, an increase of 57.5% compared to $32,227,000 for the same period in 2024[129] - Cash used in investing activities rose by $18.6 million, from $32,355,000 in Q1 2024 to $50,988,000 in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased spending on corporate and IT programs[132] Supply Chain and Product Strategy - The product assortment for the first quarter of 2025 included outdoor (28%), sports (26%), recreation (24%), and apparel (22%) categories, reflecting a diverse range of offerings[75] - The company reduced its cost exposure to products imported from China to approximately 9% of total cost of goods sold for its private label business, aiming to diversify its global supply chain[79] - The company emphasizes a localized merchandising strategy to connect with a broad range of consumers, tailoring offerings to regional preferences[75] Shareholder Returns and Debt - The company approved a new share repurchase program allowing for the purchase of up to $700 million of its outstanding shares, with $536.5 million remaining for repurchases as of May 3, 2025[125] - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share for the fiscal quarter ended May 3, 2025, totaling $8,716 paid on March 25, 2025[128] - The company has a total long-term debt obligation of $103,994 for 2025, with significant payments due in 2027 amounting to $424,000[118] Economic and Market Conditions - The company monitors macroeconomic trends, including inflation and tariffs, which could impact consumer spending and sales growth[79] - The company is focused on enhancing its omnichannel capabilities, integrating e-commerce with physical stores to drive operational efficiencies[77] - E-commerce net sales represented 10.0% of merchandise sales in Q1 2025, up from 9.0% in Q1 2024[101]