Core Insights - Investors are increasingly focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) as a significant opportunity for growth, similar to past successes with companies like Amazon and Nvidia [1] Group 1: Company Summaries - **The Honest Company**: Specializes in personal and baby care products with clean ingredients, reported $97 million in revenue for Q1 2025, a 13% year-over-year increase, and is positioned for profitable growth [4] - **Stride**: A technology-based learning company with an 18% year-over-year revenue increase to $613 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, and profits of $99 million, with analysts predicting a 14% rise in stock price [6] - **Revolve Group**: An online fashion retailer utilizing AI, reported a 10% year-over-year sales increase and a 5% rise in net income, with mixed analyst opinions on stock price targets [8][9] - **Nomad**: A European frozen foods company with a 6% compound annual growth rate over the past decade, despite a recent sales decrease, all analysts rate it a buy with a target price 40% higher than current levels [10] - **Driven Brands**: Offers automotive services, reported a 7% sales increase in Q1, and plans to open 200 new stores in 2025, with a 30% average price target increase anticipated [11] - **Oddity Tech**: A cosmetics and skincare company using AI, reported a 27% revenue increase in Q1, but is seen as potentially expensive in the short term [12] - **Urban Outfitters**: Experienced an 11% revenue increase in Q1 fiscal 2026, with earnings per share nearly doubling, and all analysts expect further stock price increases [13] - **Shake Shack**: Reported a 10.5% sales increase in Q1 and more than doubled net income, with a positive long-term outlook despite a recent stock price surge [14] - **Academy Sports**: A sporting goods retailer facing short-term pressure but has long-term growth potential through new store openings and digital expansion, with a 20% average price target increase [16] - **Chef's Warehouse**: A specialty foods distributor with a 9% revenue increase in Q1 and earnings per share rising from $0.05 to $0.25, all analysts predict an 8% to 20% stock price increase [17][18]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of thorough research and understanding of businesses before making investment decisions [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Insights - The author has a beneficial long position in ASO shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The focus is on identifying and developing deep knowledge of great businesses, which suggests a strategic approach to investment [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The article highlights the role of individual investors in the stock market and the need for education in investing [1] - It mentions that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a common consideration in investment analysis [3]

Core Viewpoint - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASO) is given a hold rating due to concerns about the near-term outlook despite positive execution in store expansion, premium brand partnerships, and traction with higher-income customers [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company shows encouraging execution on store expansion and premium brand partnerships [1] - There is a noted increase in traction with higher-income customers [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - Weakness is observed among core lower-income consumers, which poses a risk to the company's performance [1] - Inventory risks and macroeconomic uncertainties are highlighted as significant concerns for the company [1]

Over fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on my macro view and stock-specific turnaround stories to garner outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile. If you want me to cover a specific stock or have a question for an article, just let me know!Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own ...

Truist Securities analyst Joseph Civello reiterated the Hold rating on Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. ASO, raising the price forecast from $45 to $47.The Hold rating reflects a conflict between the company’s successful business transformation and the persistent macroeconomic pressures on its key middle-income demographic.While the analyst praised the operational improvements since 2019, he remained cautious that the challenging economic climate will continue to suppress consumer demand longer than broadl ...

Sales Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a comparable sales decrease of 3.7%, an improvement from a 5.7% decline in the same quarter of 2024[83] - Net sales decreased by $12.8 million, or 0.9%, in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to decreased comparable sales[98] - Comparable sales decreased by 3.7%, driven by a 5.2% decrease in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 1.5% increase in average ticket[100] Store Operations - The company operated 303 stores as of May 3, 2025, an increase from 284 stores at the end of the prior year quarter, with 5 new stores opened during the current quarter[78] - The company opened 5 new stores in Q1 2025, contributing $45.3 million to net sales, with a total of 19 new stores opened since Q1 2024[99] - The average store size is approximately 70,000 gross square feet, with locations primarily in the southern United States[77] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, was $109,764, compared to $142,578 for the same period in 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 23%[112] - Adjusted Net Income for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, was $51,597, down from $81,620 in the prior year, representing a decline of about 37%[114] - Adjusted Earnings per Share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2025 was $0.76 (diluted), compared to $1.08 in the same quarter of 2024, a decrease of approximately 30%[114] Cost and Expenses - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose by $36.2 million, or 10.2%, to $389.6 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to strategic investments in new stores and technology[103] - SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales increased from 25.9% in Q1 2024 to 28.8% in Q1 2025[95] - Interest expense decreased by $0.4 million, or 4.7%, in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to lower interest rates[105] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Net cash provided by operating activities for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, was $157,472, down from $199,677 in the prior year, indicating a decline of about 21%[116] - Capital expenditures for the thirteen weeks ended May 3, 2025, totaled $50,830,000, an increase of 57.5% compared to $32,227,000 for the same period in 2024[129] - Cash used in investing activities rose by $18.6 million, from $32,355,000 in Q1 2024 to $50,988,000 in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased spending on corporate and IT programs[132] Supply Chain and Product Strategy - The product assortment for the first quarter of 2025 included outdoor (28%), sports (26%), recreation (24%), and apparel (22%) categories, reflecting a diverse range of offerings[75] - The company reduced its cost exposure to products imported from China to approximately 9% of total cost of goods sold for its private label business, aiming to diversify its global supply chain[79] - The company emphasizes a localized merchandising strategy to connect with a broad range of consumers, tailoring offerings to regional preferences[75] Shareholder Returns and Debt - The company approved a new share repurchase program allowing for the purchase of up to $700 million of its outstanding shares, with $536.5 million remaining for repurchases as of May 3, 2025[125] - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share for the fiscal quarter ended May 3, 2025, totaling $8,716 paid on March 25, 2025[128] - The company has a total long-term debt obligation of $103,994 for 2025, with significant payments due in 2027 amounting to $424,000[118] Economic and Market Conditions - The company monitors macroeconomic trends, including inflation and tariffs, which could impact consumer spending and sales growth[79] - The company is focused on enhancing its omnichannel capabilities, integrating e-commerce with physical stores to drive operational efficiencies[77] - E-commerce net sales represented 10.0% of merchandise sales in Q1 2025, up from 9.0% in Q1 2024[101]

Q1 2025 Investor Update June 2025 Safe Harbor/Forward Looking Statements This presentation by Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (the "Company") contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements are based on Academy's current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements may incorporate words such as "believ ...

分组1 - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.76 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.91 per share, and down from $1.08 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -16.48% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.35 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.37%, and compared to year-ago revenues of $1.36 billion [2] - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 22.9% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 gained 2.1% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $2.14 on revenues of $1.63 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6 on revenues of $6.15 billion [7] - The Leisure and Recreation Products industry, to which Academy Sports and Outdoors belongs, is currently in the bottom 22% of the Zacks Industry Rank, indicating potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Academy Sports and Outdoors is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, suggesting expected underperformance in the near future [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q1 fiscal 2025 were $1,350 million, down 0.9% year-over-year, resulting in a negative 3.7% comparable sales (comp) [13][26] - Operating income was $69.3 million, with diluted EPS at $0.68 and adjusted EPS at $0.76 [30] - Gross margin improved to 34%, a 60 basis point increase from the previous year, driven by merchandise margin expansion and favorable shrink [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Footwear and apparel were the strongest categories, remaining roughly flat year-over-year, while sports and recreation also showed improvement [14][26] - Athletic footwear posted a positive 4.5% comp, led by brands like Nike and Brooks, while the Jordan brand exceeded internal expectations [27][19] - Outdoor category faced challenges, particularly in ammunition sales, but fishing and firearms showed solid increases [14][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company observed increased foot traffic from customers with household incomes over $100,000, indicating a shift towards value-seeking behavior among higher-income consumers [12][37] - E-commerce sales increased by 10% for the quarter, with penetration growing to over 10% [17][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on new store expansion, planning to open 20 to 25 new stores in fiscal 2025, with five locations opened in Q1 [15][16] - E-commerce growth is a key pillar, with efforts to enhance the online shopping experience and expand product offerings [17][18] - The company is leveraging technology, including RFID and handheld devices, to improve inventory accuracy and customer experience [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about navigating tariff impacts and consumer behavior, emphasizing the importance of value in a challenging economic environment [7][25] - The company is adjusting its guidance to account for various tariff scenarios, with sales expectations ranging from $5.97 billion to $6.26 billion [35][36] - Management noted the fragility of the U.S. consumer environment but remains confident in long-term growth strategies [24][25] Other Important Information - The company returned over $100 million of free cash flow to investors in Q1, including share repurchases and dividends [34] - Strategic actions taken to mitigate tariff impacts included pulling forward $85 million in domestic inventory receipts at pre-tariff prices [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Retention of higher-income consumers - Management noted that retention among higher-income consumers has been strong, with these customers shopping more frequently across various product categories [41][42] Question: Performance in May and impact of Jordan brand - Management indicated that while May showed a slight decline, the Jordan brand continues to perform well, and they remain optimistic about Q2 due to upcoming shopping events [45][46] Question: Health of the consumer and impact of weather - Management attributed softness in certain categories to weather conditions and noted that consumer behavior is cautious, with a focus on value [52][53] Question: Tariff outlook for fiscal 2026 - Management emphasized the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate future tariff impacts, but refrained from speculating on specific outcomes [80][81] Question: Gross margin guidance - Management explained that gross margin guidance remains unchanged due to effective inventory management and partnerships with suppliers to mitigate cost increases [56][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $1,350 million, down 0.9% year-over-year, resulting in a negative 3.7% comparable sales (comp) [11][25] - Operating income was $69.3 million, with diluted EPS at $0.68 and adjusted EPS at $0.76 [30] - Gross margin improved to 34%, a 60 basis point increase from the previous year, driven by merchandise margin expansion [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Footwear and apparel were the strongest categories, with athletic footwear posting a positive 4.5% comp, driven by brands like Nike and Brooks [26][27] - Outdoor category saw low single-digit declines primarily due to softer sales in ammunition, while fishing and firearms performed well [12][28] - E-commerce channel experienced a positive 10% comp for the quarter, with significant contributions from the Jordan brand [25][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Increased foot traffic from customers with household incomes over $100,000, indicating a shift towards value-seeking behavior [10][37] - The company noted a sequential improvement in sales throughout the quarter, with April finishing positively after a slow February [11][44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing exposure to products made in China, aiming to decrease this from 9% to approximately 6% by year-end [8][10] - New store expansion remains a key growth engine, with plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in 2025 [14][15] - The company is leveraging technology, including RFID and handheld devices, to improve inventory accuracy and customer experience [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about navigating the current tariff environment while maintaining value for customers [5][24] - The company anticipates continued pressure on consumer spending due to inflation but believes its value proposition will attract more customers [24][108] - Guidance for 2025 was updated to reflect a range of sales outcomes based on potential tariff scenarios, with expected sales between $5.97 billion and $6.26 billion [35][36] Other Important Information - The company returned over $100 million of free cash flow to investors in Q1, including share repurchases and dividends [33] - Strategic investments in digital and supply chain technologies are expected to normalize SG&A expenses as the year progresses [30][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Retention of higher-income consumers - Management noted that higher-income consumers are shopping more frequently and are retaining their loyalty, shopping across various product categories [40][41] Question: Performance in May and comp trends - May showed a slight decline in sales, but management remains optimistic about Q2 due to upcoming shopping events like Father's Day [44][45] Question: Impact of weather and consumer health - Management indicated that weather had a significant impact on sales, particularly in basketball and golf, and noted that consumers are cautious in their spending [94][50] Question: Tariff outlook for FY26 - Management emphasized the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate future tariff impacts, but specifics on the tariff situation remain uncertain [79][80] Question: Gross margin guidance - Management explained that gross margin guidance remains unchanged due to strategic inventory management and partnerships with suppliers to mitigate cost increases [54][56]