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Does Carvana's High Price-to-Sales Multiple Still Make Sense?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-07 14:41
Core Insights - Carvana Inc. (CVNA) is trading at a forward sales multiple of 3.65, significantly higher than its peers and its own five-year average [1][7] - Despite appearing expensive, Carvana's strong sales momentum and operational improvements may justify the premium valuation [3][14] Sales Performance - Carvana's retail sales increased by 33.1% year-over-year to 416,348 units last year, with Q1'25 sales rising 45.7% due to strong demand [4][7] - The company anticipates further sequential growth in retail unit sales for Q2 and expects substantial growth for the full year 2025 [4] Operational Efficiency - Carvana is enhancing operational efficiency through various technology and process initiatives, including cost reductions in reconditioning and transport [5] - The company reported record adjusted EBITDA of approximately $488 million in Q1'25, more than doubling from the previous year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.5%, the highest among public car dealers [6][7] Market Performance - Carvana's stock has surged over 70% year-to-date, contrasting with a 13.8% decline in the auto sector, while competitors like CarMax and Lithia Motors have seen declines [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 214% increase in annual earnings to $4.99 per share for 2025, with a further 23% increase expected in FY26 [12] Investor Sentiment - Investors are responding positively to Carvana's results, indicating that the market is betting on continued growth rather than mere speculation [14] - As long as the growth narrative remains intact, Carvana's elevated valuation multiple appears justified [14]