Economic Outlook - The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is decreasing from a peak of 60% to below 50% due to the Trump administration easing aggressive tariff policies, which has allowed the S&P 500 to recover from a correction in March [1] Company Analysis Walmart (WMT) - Walmart has historically thrived during recessions due to its essential grocery offerings and reputation for affordability, attracting budget-conscious customers [3] - Approximately two-thirds of Walmart's inventory is produced in the U.S., providing a buffer against global trade tensions [4] - Over the past year, Walmart has achieved a 47% return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10% return, with analysts optimistic about steady growth in the coming months [4] HCA Healthcare (HCA) - HCA Healthcare is the largest non-governmental hospital chain in the U.S. and has shown resilience during economic downturns, particularly in critical care sectors [5] - The company reported a remarkable growth of +236.97% and aims for a 29% market share by 2030 [5] - Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for HCA from $405 to $444, indicating a potential 16% upside from the stock's previous closing price [6] Waste Management (WM) - Waste Management has experienced a +135.87% growth over the past five years, as demand for waste collection and recycling services remains stable during recessions [9] - The waste management industry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% by 2030, driven by advancements in recycling technologies and increasing environmental awareness [10] - Recent evaluations by JPMorgan indicate optimism regarding WM's growth prospects, with a valuation of approximately 16x forward-year EV/EBITDA and a free cash flow yield of 3% [11]

Group 1: Mastercard - Mastercard has delivered significant returns, more than doubling investors' money in five years and generating 6x returns in ten years [4] - The company processed transactions worth $9.8 trillion in 2024 and has 1.1 billion cards in circulation worldwide [5] - In Q1, Mastercard's revenue grew by 14% year over year, driven by cross-border volume growth of 15%, with an operating margin of 57.2% [7] - The company is innovating with technologies like artificial intelligence, positioning itself well in the shift from cash to digital payments [8] Group 2: Waste Management - Waste Management has generated nearly 50% in total returns over three years, 160% over five years, and 470% over ten years [9] - The company expanded its business by acquiring Stericycle, expecting $250 million in synergies through 2027, which is double its original expectations [11] - Waste Management is focusing on scaling its core operations through acquisitions and has a robust pipeline of opportunities [12] - The company has increased its dividend for 22 consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [13] Group 3: BYD - BYD has surpassed Tesla in sales volumes and revenue, becoming the world's largest EV maker with over $100 billion in revenue in 2024 [15] - The company's net income jumped 100% year over year in Q1, indicating strong financial performance [15] - BYD is one of the largest battery manufacturers globally, providing a competitive advantage in costs and supply [17] - The company is expanding rapidly, entering new markets and opening showrooms, which positions it for continued growth [17][18]