Core Insights - MGIC Investment (MTG) has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters, with an average surprise of 12.20% [1][4] - The most recent earnings report showed a surprise of 13.64%, with actual earnings of $0.66 per share against an expectation of $0.75 per share [2] - The previous quarter also saw a positive surprise of 10.77%, with actual earnings of $0.72 per share compared to a consensus estimate of $0.65 per share [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for MGIC, indicated by a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +2.37%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's near-term earnings potential [4][7] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicates a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that such combinations lead to positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [5][7] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [6] - A negative Earnings ESP can reduce predictive power but does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss [8] Importance of Earnings ESP - Companies often beat consensus EPS estimates, but this alone may not drive stock price increases; thus, checking the Earnings ESP before quarterly releases is crucial for investment decisions [9]