Investors might want to bet on Radian (RDN) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.The power of a changing earnings pi ...

Essent Group (ESNT) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 08, 2025 10:00 AM ET Speaker0Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Pryla, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Essent Group Limited Second Quarter Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.Question speakers' there Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ph ...

Core Insights - MGIC Investment (MTG) has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters, with an average surprise of 12.20% [1][4] - The most recent earnings report showed a surprise of 13.64%, with actual earnings of $0.66 per share against an expectation of $0.75 per share [2] - The previous quarter also saw a positive surprise of 10.77%, with actual earnings of $0.72 per share compared to a consensus estimate of $0.65 per share [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for MGIC, indicated by a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +2.37%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's near-term earnings potential [4][7] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicates a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that such combinations lead to positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [5][7] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [6] - A negative Earnings ESP can reduce predictive power but does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss [8] Importance of Earnings ESP - Companies often beat consensus EPS estimates, but this alone may not drive stock price increases; thus, checking the Earnings ESP before quarterly releases is crucial for investment decisions [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $185 million for Q4 2024, with an annualized return on equity of 14% [7] - For the full year, net income increased to $763 million from $713 million in the prior year [8] - The insurance in force at the end of the quarter was over $295 billion, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [8] - The annual persistency rate remained stable at 85% throughout the year [9] - The book value per share grew to $20.82, reflecting a 12% increase year-over-year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company wrote $16 billion of new insurance in Q4 and $56 billion for the full year, marking a 21% increase from the prior year [9] - The in-force premium yield was 38.6 basis points, remaining relatively flat during the year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The housing market remains resilient, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics and a generally positive economic outlook [11] - Consensus forecasts suggest that the mortgage insurance market in 2025 will be similar in size to 2024, with elevated mortgage rates expected to lead to high persistency [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a dynamic approach to capital management, focusing on financial strength and flexibility [10] - The reinsurance program is a key component of risk and capital management, providing capital diversification and reducing required assets [11] - The company aims to continue returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends while maintaining a strong insurance portfolio [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's leadership and market position, highlighting the successful execution of business strategies [22] - The company anticipates continued favorable credit trends and a stable risk profile, which may lead to elevated payout ratios [10] - Management noted that while the economic environment has been favorable, future conditions remain uncertain [33] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $700 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, representing a 92% payout ratio of net income [10] - Operating expenses for Q4 were $49 million, down from $55 million in the previous year, with expectations for further reductions in 2025 [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the new notice claim rate and its drivers? - Management explained that the increase in new delinquencies is due to higher exposures from recent vintages, but they are targeting the same severity to exposure ratio as before [24] Question: What are the drivers behind the lower operating expenses? - Management attributed the lower operating expenses to cumulative changes made over the past couple of years, aligning resources to add value [25][26] Question: How does GSE reform impact the company? - Management acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding GSE reform but emphasized the importance of having the right guardrails in place to protect taxpayers and ensure a stable market [29][30] Question: What is the normalized delinquency rate? - Management indicated that while the current environment is favorable, they expect more normalized delinquency rates to be in the range of 20% to 40% over time [36] Question: Can you elaborate on the pricing environment for new insurance written? - Management noted that the risk-return profile remains favorable, allowing for effective capital deployment [50]