Core Insights - Costco Wholesale reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 earnings, highlighting new global locations, digital upgrades, and expanded hours for executive members [1][8] - The company has seen a 1% increase in weekly US sales due to the new exclusive morning hours for executive members and additional Saturday evening hours for all US members [2] Expansion and Membership - In the fourth quarter, Costco opened 10 new warehouses, including locations in Canada, Korea, Sweden, and five in the US, bringing the total to 914 warehouses globally [3] - The company plans to open another 35 warehouses in fiscal year 2026, indicating ongoing expansion opportunities both domestically and internationally [4] Membership Growth and Sales Performance - Costco's paid membership increased to 81 million, a 6.3% rise from the previous year, with renewal rates at 92.3% in the US and Canada and 89.8% worldwide [6] - Quarterly net sales rose 8% to $84.4 billion, up from $78.2 billion a year ago, while fiscal year net sales climbed 8.1% to $269.9 billion compared to $249.6 billion last year [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q4 fiscal year 2025 reached $84.43 billion, an increase of 8% from $78.18 billion in the same quarter last year [12] - Net income for Q4 was $2.61 billion, or $5.87 per diluted share, up 11% from $2.35 billion, or $5.29 per diluted share in the previous year [12] - Membership fee income increased to $1.72 billion, a growth of 14% year over year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce sales exceeded $19.6 billion, increasing over 15% [7] - Comparable sales were up 5.7%, or 6.4% adjusted for gas deflation and foreign exchange [12] - Gross margin for Q4 was reported at 11.13%, up 13 basis points year over year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Traffic or shopping frequency increased by 3.7% worldwide [13] - The average transaction or ticket was up 1.9% worldwide, adjusted for gas deflation and FX [14] - The U.S. and Canada renewal rate was 92.3%, while the worldwide rate was 89.8% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 35 new warehouses in fiscal year 2026, indicating continued expansion both domestically and internationally [5] - There is a focus on increasing Kirkland Signature product sourcing in the regions where items are sold to lower costs and reduce emissions [8] - The company aims to enhance member experience through improved checkout technology and digital enhancements [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in growing market share despite macroeconomic uncertainties [11] - The company is optimistic about the membership base growth, particularly among younger members [40] - Management noted that the membership renewal rate is expected to decline slightly due to a higher number of online sign-ups [41] Other Important Information - Capital expenditure for Q4 was approximately $1.97 billion, with a total of under $5.5 billion for the full year [20] - The company celebrated milestones such as the 40th anniversary of its $1.50 hot dog and soda combo [7] - Inflation remained in the low to mid-single digit range, with specific commodities experiencing varying inflation rates [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Awareness of extended member hours and potential comp lift - Management indicated that communication about extended hours has been effective, with a 1% comp lift observed [32][33] Question: Membership renewal rate expectations - Management acknowledged that the renewal rate may continue to decline due to a higher number of online sign-ups but remains optimistic about overall membership growth [38][40] Question: Core margins and price increases - Management reported a 29 basis point increase in core margins, with improvements across all main categories [45][47] Question: Sustainability of membership fee income growth - Management expressed confidence in continued growth opportunities for membership income, driven by new warehouse openings and younger member engagement [56][57] Question: E-commerce and grocery demand - Management noted strong growth in Instacart-driven traffic and emphasized the importance of fresh foods in meeting online grocery demand [66][68]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale is experiencing a mixed investment outlook with both bullish and bearish signals affecting its stock performance [2] Group 1: Bullish Factors - Strong fiscal Q3 2025 earnings report showed revenue of $63.21 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, and net income rose 13% despite a one-time $130 million accounting charge [4][6] - Membership retention remains robust with a global renewal rate of 90.2%, and 73% of membership sales are from the premium Executive card, contributing to over 10% growth in quarterly membership income [6][7] - The company maintains a solid financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 and a quick ratio of 1.02, alongside an increase in cash flow from operating activities to $11.34 billion in 2024 [7] Group 2: Bearish Factors - Costco's current P/E ratio of 56.82 is significantly higher than the market average of 23.70 and the retail sector average of 28.34, raising concerns about valuation [9] - Future earnings growth is projected at only 9% over the next 12 months, which may not justify the high valuation [10] - E-commerce growth has slowed from 40% year-over-year to 15% in Q3 2025, potentially impacting overall sales as consumer confidence wanes [14] Group 3: Stock Forecast - The 12-month stock price forecast for Costco is $1,034.79, indicating a potential upside of 3.28% from the current price of $1,001.92 [15] - Analysts suggest that while Costco has a Moderate Buy rating, caution is advised due to current market conditions and technical indicators [18]