BOPET Industry Analysis Summary Industry Overview - The BOPET (Biaxially Oriented Polyethylene Terephthalate) market is characterized by a high proportion of production using the slice method, accounting for approximately 68% of the total production. This method enhances viscosity, ensuring high strength and low shrinkage of the films, with more flexible quality control [1][2] - The BOPET price is projected to fluctuate between 6,900 and 8,100 RMB in 2025, with an average price of 7,499 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6% [1][4] - The industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with insufficient demand in emerging fields and increased competition in domestic sales due to shrinking foreign trade [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Methods**: BOPET is produced mainly through two methods: PTA glycol polymerization (32%) and slice method (68%). The slice method is favored for its ability to enhance film properties and flexibility in production [2] - **Market Challenges**: The BOPET market is currently experiencing oversupply and high inventory levels, leading to cautious outlooks from companies regarding future market conditions. The expected total capacity by the end of 2025 is 7.23 million tons, with a growth rate of about 10% [1][7] - **Price Trends**: The average price for BOPET in 2024 was 7,947 RMB, with a decrease of 448 RMB in 2025. The market is under pressure from high inventory and weak demand, leading to a competitive pricing environment [4][6] - **Production Cuts**: In December, leading companies reached a consensus to reduce production by 20%, with an additional 50% cut during the Spring Festival. However, large-scale reductions are unlikely, and adjustments will be based on actual operational conditions [4][6] Emerging Trends - **High-End Functional Films**: The industry is shifting towards high-end functional films, such as solar backsheet films and optical films, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% expected over the next five years [3][11] - **Import Dependency**: The BOPET industry relies heavily on imports for high-end optical films and functional films, primarily from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The demand from Southeast Asia is increasing due to favorable trade agreements [3][10] - **Seasonal Fluctuations**: The BOPET industry experiences seasonal demand fluctuations, with the first quarter typically being a low-demand period and the third quarter seeing peak demand due to increased consumer goods and electronics [12] Financial Performance - **Profitability**: The profitability of BOPET companies varies significantly, with some using the coating method achieving profits of 400 to 500 RMB, while those using the slice method are still facing losses, albeit at a reduced level [23] - **Future Profitability**: The industry is expected to gradually recover profitability as new production speeds slow down and market conditions stabilize. The high price range is anticipated to remain around 7,500 RMB, with limited room for further increases [22] Conclusion - The BOPET industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply-demand imbalances, pricing pressures, and a shift towards high-end products. Companies are adapting through production adjustments and focusing on emerging market opportunities, particularly in high-end functional films. The outlook remains cautious, with significant challenges ahead in terms of inventory management and competition.