Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of commodity demand in Europe, driven by defense investments and long-term low-carbon transition constraints, suggesting a shift from energy vulnerability to strategic autonomy and efficiency upgrades, alongside the reconstruction post-Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may create a demand narrative comparable to China's 4 trillion plan in the 2010s [6][42]. Group 1: Background and Current Economic Context - The inventory cycle model has been a fundamental aspect of commodity research, with significant fluctuations in inventory levels being a result rather than a cause of price changes [3]. - Current manufacturing inventories in China and the U.S. have been at a low for nearly 20 months, not solely due to insufficient de-inventorying but also due to a lack of sustained market recognition of traditional demand narratives [5]. - The European economy is facing challenges from reduced competitiveness, government debt issues, and the impacts of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, with GDP growth expected to improve slightly but still showing negative growth in major economies like Germany and France [9][12]. Group 2: Defense Spending and Strategic Autonomy - The ReArm Europe plan aims to raise 800 billion euros for defense spending, with member states allowed to increase defense spending to over 3% of GDP, which could create significant fiscal space and drive demand for commodities [14][15]. - Germany's new government is pushing for constitutional reforms to support defense and infrastructure spending, indicating a shift towards a crisis response model that emphasizes economic recovery through military and infrastructure investments [18][19]. Group 3: Commodity Demand and Supply Chain Resilience - The shift in European defense spending is expected to lead to increased demand for industrial metals and critical materials, particularly as military capabilities are rebuilt and local production is prioritized over imports [26][28]. - The EU's energy strategy focuses on reducing reliance on Russian energy, with plans to diversify imports and enhance renewable energy sources, which will impact the demand for various commodities [30][33]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Critical Minerals - The article highlights the growing importance of critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, in the context of national security and clean energy transitions, with supply chain vulnerabilities becoming a focal point in geopolitical strategies [34][38]. - The concentration of critical mineral production in specific regions, such as China for rare earths and the Democratic Republic of Congo for cobalt, underscores the strategic competition for these resources [41].