Core Insights - The latest report by DNV indicates that sustainable biomass production can only meet 30% of the total demand for bio-based fuels across various industries, posing significant challenges for decarbonization efforts [1] - DNV forecasts that while bioenergy demand will grow from 57 exajoules to 77 exajoules by 2050, the limited supply of sustainable biomass will force competing industries to make difficult choices regarding resource allocation [1] Biofuels in Aviation - The impact of raw material limitations on bio-based aviation fuel is particularly severe, with DNV predicting that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will only meet 4% of global aviation fuel demand by 2030, peaking at 30% by 2060, which is significantly lower than industry visions and regulatory targets [1] - The HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) technology is currently the only viable method for large-scale production of sustainable aviation fuel, but it faces severe raw material shortages, with estimates suggesting it will only satisfy 5% of global aviation fuel demand by 2030 [1] Biofuels in Shipping - In contrast to the aviation sector, DNV predicts that by 2060, the shipping industry will become the largest consumer of bioenergy in the transportation sector, with biofuels accounting for 26% of its total energy demand, surpassing the 25% fossil fuel usage [2] - The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) binding "Net Zero Framework," which includes a global carbon pricing mechanism starting in 2028, is a key driver for the increased demand for biofuels in shipping [2] - DNV expects that by 2030, the market share of biofuels in the shipping industry will rise to 4%, with a projected 77% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, although the goal of "net zero emissions by around 2050" may not be fully achievable [2] Biofuels in Road Transport - The demand for biofuels in the road transport sector is expected to peak and then decline as the electrification process accelerates, with DNV forecasting that by 2032, electric vehicles will account for over 50% of global passenger car sales [2] - In regions like Latin America and Southeast Asia, biofuels will play a "moderate role" in replacing oil, making up about 5% of road transport energy demand, with bioenergy and hydrogen combined only meeting 1% of global passenger car energy needs by 2060 [2] Biofuels in Industrial Manufacturing - DNV emphasizes that industrial manufacturing, particularly in high-temperature production processes, is a key growth area for modern bioenergy, especially biogas [3] - Biogas is expected to meet 10% of total bioenergy demand by 2060, with the highest shares in Europe and the OECD Pacific region [3] - As the demand for biofuels approaches technical supply limits, sustainability pressures are increasing, with potential conflicts arising from land use for energy crops versus food crops and natural ecosystems [3]