全球炼化及烯烃行业格局展望 20250825 摘要 全球炼油毛利率预计在 2030 年左右达峰值后下滑，受地缘政治、碳关 税和新能源转型等因素影响，不经济炼厂或将关闭或转型为生物燃料生 产设施。已有约 150 万吨/天的炼厂宣布关停或转型，中国占 50%。 预测到 2035 年，全球约 22%的炼油产能（1,840 万桶/天）面临关停 风险，主要集中在欧洲和中东地区。国家石油公司（NOC）因政府支持， 关停意愿较低，而国际石油公司（IOC）更倾向于关闭或出售盈利微薄 的炼油厂。 2020 年后，全球乙烯投资主要由中国主导，民营企业如龙盛和恒力大 量进入该领域。2025-2028 年，中石油、中石化等大型炼油公司将主 导投资，转向增产石化产品，通过加氢处理重油以生产更多石脑油。 全球约 40%-50%的乙烯资产处于负利润或盈亏平衡状态，行业处于周 期底部。中国自 2017 年以来大量新建炼化项目，导致全球供应过剩。 欧洲因能源价格高企及碳税问题，面临较大压力。 全球约有 6,300 万吨乙烯产能面临关闭风险，占 2025 年全球总产能的 27%，高中风险产能约占 55%，主要集中在亚洲和欧洲。中国约有 1,10 ...

研究院 能源化工组 期货研究报告|能源专题报告 2025-08-25 研究员 潘翔 康远宁 0755-23991175 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 碳中和趋势下的船舶替代燃料前景展望 内容摘要 ■ 强制性法规重塑航运业，能源转型成必选项 在全球航运业从环保自觉转向强制合规的时代，国际海事组织（IMO）确立了 2050 年 前后净零排放的宏伟目标。基于"从油井到尾迹"（Well-to-Wake, WtW）的全生命周期 评估框架，传统化石燃料及作为过渡选项的 LNG 均难以满足最终的净零要求，这从根 本上推动了行业向绿色替代燃料的深刻变革。 ■ 甲醇领跑商业化应用 在众多替代方案中，甲醇因其常温常压下的液体形态、成熟的发动机技术及对现有基 础设施的兼容性，正迅速成为商业化应用的领跑者。而氨因其分子不含碳的零排放特 性，被视为远洋航运最具潜力的长期解决方案。但两者均面临绿色生产成本高昂、能 量密度低于传统燃料等关键制约。 ■ 生物燃料为现存船队提供过渡，氢与电聚焦短途市场 可再生柴油（HVO）等生物燃料凭借其"直接可用"的特性，为庞大的现有船队提供了满 足近期减排法规的关键过渡方案，但其发 ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/25 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： AgResource：巴西2025/26年度大豆产量预计增长3% 咨询机构AgResource表示，巴西2025/2026年度大豆产量预计为1.765亿吨，较上一年度增长3%。 AgResource数据显示，2025/ ...

IPO Pipeline Overview - As of August 10, there are 299 companies in the IPO pipeline, with 29 on the Shanghai Main Board, 36 on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 26 on the Shenzhen Main Board, 29 on the ChiNext, and 179 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][2]. Newly Listed Companies - From August 4 to August 10, three companies were newly listed: - Hansan (Nanjing) Technology Co., Ltd. on the ChiNext with a closing price of 82.89 CNY per share, a rise of 186.72%, and a trading volume of 2.048 billion CNY [4][5]. - Yangzhou Tianfulong Group Co., Ltd. on the Shanghai Main Board with a closing price of 56.80 CNY per share, a rise of 140.68%, and a trading volume of 1.971 billion CNY [5]. - Jiangsu Youli Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. on the Beijing Stock Exchange with a closing price of 83.22 CNY per share, a rise of 246.89%, and a trading volume of 732 million CNY [5]. New Counseling Record Companies - Eight companies were newly recorded for counseling from August 4 to August 10, including: - Beijing Jichuang Beifang Technology Co., Ltd., focusing on integrated circuit design [6][7]. - Yao Mazi Food Co., Ltd., specializing in seasoning products [8]. - Changde New Material Technology Co., Ltd., engaged in resource utilization and new materials [8]. - Anhui Jiren Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., focusing on modern traditional Chinese medicine [8]. - Dongguan Yuanli Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., specializing in LCD backlight modules [8]. - Zhongdao Optoelectronic Equipment Co., Ltd., focusing on detection equipment for displays and solar cells [8]. - Tianbo Intelligent Technology (Shandong) Co., Ltd., producing various automotive sensors [9]. - Zhongxing Micro Technology Co., Ltd., providing video technology solutions based on AI and big data [9]. Approval Status of Companies - Three companies successfully passed the review process from August 4 to August 10: - Zhongcheng Zhixin Engineering Consulting Group Co., Ltd. on the Beijing Stock Exchange [10]. - Suzhou Fengbei Biotechnology Co., Ltd. on the Shanghai Main Board [10]. - Zhuhai Nante Metal Technology Co., Ltd. on the Beijing Stock Exchange [10]. - The review for Jiejia Robot Co., Ltd. was canceled [10]. Registration Approval - Two companies received registration approval from August 4 to August 10: - Guangzhou Bibete Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., focusing on innovative drug development [16][17]. - Daming Electronics Co., Ltd., specializing in automotive electronic components [18]. Termination of Review - Only one company, Wenduoli Sunshade Materials (Dezhou) Co., Ltd., withdrew its IPO application during this period [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's LNG bunkering operations have expanded from the eastern port area to the western port area, enhancing the port's green shipping service capabilities and marking a significant step in the transition to renewable energy in the shipping industry [1][2]. Group 1: LNG Bunkering Operations - The "Xin Ao Pu Tuo" vessel successfully bunkered approximately 6,700 cubic meters of LNG for the "Da Fei Cheng Shi" container ship, marking the first LNG bunkering at the western port area of Shenzhen [1]. - Shenzhen has become the fourth globally and the second in China to have simultaneous loading and LNG bunkering capabilities for international vessels [2]. - The eastern Yantian port area has seen a rapid increase in LNG bunkering, with a total of 310,200 cubic meters bunkered in the first half of this year, surpassing the total volume for the previous year [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Future Plans - The global shipping industry is rapidly transitioning to renewable energy, with LNG-powered vessels accounting for 102 out of 647 new ship orders in the first half of this year, representing 55.5% of the total [1]. - The Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Bureau is planning to enhance LNG emergency anchorage and bunkering capabilities while exploring alternative fuels such as biofuels and green methanol [3]. - Research indicates a potential "combinatorial substitution" trend in ship fuel development, with LNG being the preferred short-term alternative and methanol and ammonia having the most promising long-term applications [3].

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Fengbei Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has received approval for its IPO application from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating a positive outlook for the company's growth in the waste oil resource utilization sector [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Fengbei Biotechnology is a high-tech enterprise focused on the comprehensive utilization of waste resources, primarily producing resource-based products from waste oil [4]. - The company's main business includes waste oil resource utilization, with secondary operations in oil chemical products [4]. - Key products include bio-based materials (such as pesticide and fertilizer additives) and biofuels (primarily biodiesel) [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the reporting period was 1,708.69 million yuan, 1,727.78 million yuan, and 1,948.02 million yuan, showing a growth trend [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 135.92 million yuan, 123.04 million yuan, and 115.32 million yuan during the same periods, indicating a decline in profitability [6]. Group 3: Shareholding Structure - The controlling shareholder and actual controller of Fengbei Biotechnology is Pingyuan, who directly holds 59.78% of the shares and indirectly controls an additional 25.62% through other entities [5]. - Pingyuan holds a total of 85.40% of the company's shares and serves as the chairman [5]. Group 4: Key Questions from the Listing Committee - The listing committee raised questions regarding the company's customer and product structure adjustments for 2024, as well as the reasons for the decrease in sales and management expenses compared to 2023 [7]. - Concerns were also expressed about the sustainability of revenue from biofuels and the growth potential of industrial-grade mixed oil, along with the overall stability of the company's operating performance [7].

Summary of Upcoming IPOs - A total of 4 companies are scheduled for IPO review from August 4 to August 8, aiming to raise a combined total of 1.912 billion yuan [1][2]. Company Details Zhongcheng Consulting - Planned fundraising was reduced from 330 million yuan to 200 million yuan, with the removal of EPC business expansion and liquidity support projects [3][13]. - The company specializes in engineering cost consulting, bidding agency, project supervision, and management services [13][14]. Fengbei Biological - The fundraising target was cut from 1 billion yuan to 750 million yuan, eliminating liquidity support projects [7][18]. - The company focuses on the comprehensive utilization of waste oil resources, producing bio-based materials and biofuels [18][19]. Jieke Co., Ltd. - The planned fundraising decreased from 750 million yuan to 676 million yuan, with adjustments made to the funding for the intelligent robot production project and the removal of liquidity support [10][23]. - The company is engaged in the research, production, and sales of collaborative robot products, with applications in various high-tech fields [23][24]. Nante Technology - The fundraising target was reduced from 420 million yuan to 286 million yuan, with the removal of certain expansion projects and adjustments to funding for other projects [12][27]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of precision mechanical components [27][28]. Financial Performance Overview - Zhongcheng Consulting reported total assets of approximately 602.75 million yuan and a net profit of 105.39 million yuan for the year ending December 31, 2024 [17]. - Fengbei Biological's total assets reached approximately 1.236 billion yuan, with a net profit of 123.82 million yuan for the same period [21]. - Jieke Co., Ltd. reported total assets of approximately 104.67 million yuan and a net profit of 622,800 yuan for the year ending December 31, 2024 [25]. - Nante Technology's total assets were approximately 1.417 billion yuan, with a net profit of 98.22 million yuan for the same period [29]. Fundraising Projects Zhongcheng Consulting - Major projects include engineering consulting service network construction and R&D and information technology projects, with a total investment of 1.299 billion yuan [18]. Fengbei Biological - Key projects include the construction of a facility for producing 300,000 tons of oleic acid methyl ester and other bio-based products, with a total investment of 1.04 billion yuan [22]. Jieke Co., Ltd. - The company plans to invest in projects related to the production of collaborative robots and R&D center construction, with a total investment of approximately 754.31 million yuan [26]. Nante Technology - The company is focusing on precision component production and expansion projects, with a total investment of approximately 501.42 million yuan [31].

Group 1 - Oil traders are facing a tense situation as oil prices remain around $70 per barrel despite warnings of a potential market weakness from late this year until 2026 [1] - Energy giant Total (TTE.US) has warned of an oversupply issue as OPEC+ gradually lifts production cuts, while global economic growth slowdown is dragging down demand [1][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have raised their forecasts for oil supply surplus next year, with IEA predicting a surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [1][4] Group 2 - A potential oversupply could help alleviate inflation and impact high-cost oil producers, which may please U.S. President Trump, who has called for lower oil prices [4] - Current key oil storage inventories remain low, reflecting a tight supply market, and refining margins for crude oil are significantly above seasonal norms, supporting ongoing demand [4] - The U.S. government forecasts a global oil supply increase of about 2.1 million barrels per day in Q4 compared to Q1, marking the largest quarterly increase since February [4] Group 3 - Signs of strong demand persist, with Vitol Group reporting a steady rise in jet fuel demand and U.S. weekly crude oil demand data reaching a new high for the year [7] - Historical data shows that demand forecasts are often revised upwards, suggesting that the anticipated oversupply may be smaller than expected [7] - From 2012 to 2024, IEA's demand forecasts have been adjusted upwards by an average of about 500,000 barrels per day [7] Group 4 - Despite the strong demand, JPMorgan's global commodities strategy head Natasha Kaneva warns that a significant oversupply may become evident once summer demand weakens [9] - Kaneva emphasizes that supply is increasing and inventory growth will eventually be reflected in visible stocks in OECD countries, such as the U.S., which are not yet priced into the market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Provincial Ecological Environment Department and 14 other departments have jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Construction of Carbon Footprint Management System in Sichuan Province," which outlines a timeline and roadmap for establishing a product carbon footprint management system to promote green and low-carbon supply chain development and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1][3]. Group 1: Carbon Footprint Management System - The product carbon footprint connects production enterprises and consumers, facilitating greenhouse gas emission reduction across the entire lifecycle [2]. - The management system will consist of "two major cornerstones" (carbon footprint accounting standards and carbon footprint factor database) and "three systems" (product carbon labeling certification, carbon footprint grading management, and information disclosure) [2][3]. - By 2027, the initial establishment of the carbon footprint management system is targeted, with further improvements and expanded application scenarios by 2030 [3]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Focus Areas - The plan includes multiple petrochemical products in its scope, emphasizing the establishment of accounting rules and standards for products such as natural gas, fuel, fertilizers, hydrogen, and lithium batteries [4]. - Priority will be given to carbon footprint accounting for key products in sectors like decoration materials, lithium batteries, and clean energy equipment [4]. - The plan supports the development of low-carbon supply chains, particularly in the fields of power batteries, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics [4]. Group 3: Preparation for Enterprises - Enterprises are advised to enhance their management systems by integrating carbon footprint factors into their supply chain management and establishing monitoring and reporting mechanisms [5][6]. - Strengthening accounting applications is crucial, including collaboration with certification bodies and adherence to various standards for carbon footprint assessment [6]. - Companies should focus on energy-saving and carbon reduction strategies, targeting major emission sources and promoting relevant technologies [6]. - Capacity building is essential, involving talent acquisition, foundational research, and training on carbon footprint management [6].

Group 1 - The core of the new trade agreement between the US and Japan focuses on several cooperation areas, including semiconductor manufacturing, natural gas, and shipbuilding [2] - Japan has committed to purchasing 75% more US rice immediately and has agreed to buy $8 billion worth of US goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, biofuels, and environmentally friendly fuels for aircraft [2][3] - The agreement also includes Japan's purchase of 100 Boeing commercial aircraft, indicating a significant commitment to US manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The US has strategically targeted Japan's rice market, which is a sensitive and culturally significant area for Japan, as a means to exert pressure during negotiations [10][14] - Japan has historically protected its rice market with high tariffs and subsidies, making it a politically charged issue that the US has leveraged to gain concessions [11][23] - The US's approach marks a shift from broad trade wars to more precise pressure tactics, focusing on Japan's vulnerabilities to achieve broader strategic goals [19][22] Group 3 - The agreement is seen as a way for the US to deepen Japan's economic reliance on it, strengthen military alliances, and counter China's influence [36][47] - Japan's acceptance of the rice agreement reflects a painful compromise, balancing the need to maintain trade stability against the backdrop of internal agricultural challenges and external pressures [34][32] - The deal is expected to have significant implications for Japan's agricultural sector, including potential financial burdens on the government to support affected farmers [35] Group 4 - The US aims to use this trade agreement as a tool for broader geopolitical strategies, including shifting critical supply chains away from China and enhancing military integration with Japan [39][40] - The focus on Japan's rice market serves as a test of Japan's willingness to comply with US demands in other strategic areas, indicating a potential shift in the dynamics of US-Japan relations [41][44] - The agreement highlights the changing landscape of international trade, where cultural and political sensitivities are increasingly becoming focal points in negotiations [52][58]