二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 01 日 豆粕：地缘事件影响市场情绪，或稳中偏强 豆一：关注两会政策情绪，或稳中偏强 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（02.23～02.27），美豆期价小幅上升，利多因素：美国关税政策缓和（2 月 25 日美国贸易代 表杰米森·格里尔表示，特朗普政府不打算提高对中国商品的关税）、美豆油偏强带动（美国生物燃料生 产前景明朗：生物燃料掺混要求预计 3 月底前最终确定、大型炼油厂至少弥补一半生物燃料掺混豁免额度 等）；偏空因素：美国关税政策不确定（美国贸易代表格里尔表示，将继续推进对中国履行中美第一阶段 经贸协议情况 301 调查，并可能采取关税措施）、市场担忧中方采购美豆需求受到影响。截至 2 月 27 日， 美豆主力 05 合约周涨幅 1.41%，美豆粕主力 05 合约周涨幅 1.85%。 上周（02.24～02.27），国内豆粕和豆一期价"先跌后涨、重心上移"。豆粕方面，一方面美豆、巴 西贴水稳中偏强，带来成本端支撑；另一方面，中美贸易事件不确定性扰动：美国贸易代表格里尔表示， 将继续推进 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend before the release of imported soybeans from state reserves next week, supported by the strong US soybean exports, lower-than-expected Brazilian shipments in February, and the dry weather in Argentina [1]. - The oil market is cautiously optimistic, with limited downside space and the upside rebound height depending on policy guidance. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations in the next two days, which may affect the crude oil and oil markets [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - The 2025/26 soybean harvest rate in Brazil's Paraná state has reached 37%, with an estimated production of 22.12 million tons. The harvest progress is behind last year but normal compared to this year. The area of harvested soybeans is 2.16 million hectares out of the 5.77 million hectares planted [1]. - In Argentina, rainfall has been sporadic and insufficient to relieve drought, and crop ratings may decline, which is worrying for corn and soybean yields [1]. - US soybean exports are strong, and the lower - than - expected Brazilian shipments in February may lead to a decrease in arrivals in April. The dry weather in Argentina also supports the market's strong trend [1]. Oils - Indian buyers have cancelled 65,000 - 75,000 tons of South American soybean oil shipments, and it may expand to 100,000 - 120,000 tons in the next few days to lock in price - difference profits [2]. - The US EPA has sent a final biofuel quota regulation to the White House for review, which may have a significant impact on corn and soybean demand, biofuel production profits, and retail fuel prices [2]. - US soybean oil is supported by biofuel policies, while Malaysian palm oil is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The inventory in February is expected to decline again, but the large original inventory will suppress the near - month rebound height [2].

2026 年 2 月 26 日 豆粕：美国贸易言论，影响盘面波动 豆一：中美贸易情绪缓和，盘面或调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4679 +46（+0.99%） 4670 -4（-0.09%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2831 +50（+1.80%） 2821 -3（-0.11%） | | | CBOT大豆05（美分/蒲） | 1165.25 +10.75（+0.93%） | | | CBOT豆粕05（美元/短吨） | na 321.8 +7.4（+2.35%） | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 3080～3200， 较昨+10至+40； 现货基差M2605+380， 持平； 3月M2605+300； | | | 平； | 5-7月M2605+20； 持平； 6-9月M2609+0/+30， | | | | 4月 ...

2月25日，丰倍生物跌3.55%，成交额1.74亿元。两融数据显示，当日丰倍生物获融资买入额1721.77万 元，融资偿还3269.51万元，融资净买入-1547.74万元。截至2月25日，丰倍生物融资融券余额合计 7981.37万元。 融资方面，丰倍生物当日融资买入1721.77万元。当前融资余额7981.37万元，占流通市值的4.77%。 融券方面，丰倍生物2月25日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00元； 融券余量0.00股，融券余额0.00元。 资料显示，苏州丰倍生物科技股份有限公司位于江苏省常州市金坛区兴河东路19号，成立日期2014年7 月25日，上市日期2025年11月5日，公司主营业务涉及以废弃油脂资源综合利用业务为主,油脂化学品业 务为辅。主营业务收入构成为：废弃资源综合利用业务91.18%，其中:生物基材料79.60%，其中:生物燃 料11.58%，油脂化学品8.66%，其他(补充)0.16%。 截至12月10日，丰倍生物股东户数2.76万，较上期减少50.19%；人均流通股1123股，较上期增加 100.77%。2025年1月-9月，丰倍生物实现营业 ...

能源是全球南方国家实现工业化和现代化的关键基础。长期以来，各国在能源发展过程中面临"安全—经济—清洁"三者难以兼顾的难题。以风能、光伏为代 表的新能源技术迅速发展，成本下降超过八成，经济性显著增强。这一变化使能源"不可能三角"逐步向"可能三角"转变，即在更多情况下可以同时保障能源 安全、降低用能成本，并推动绿色低碳发展。 全球南方国家拥有丰富的清洁能源资源，开发这些资源不仅有助于提升能源安全，还能带动投资与就业，促进经济绿色增长。各国应根据自身资源条件和发 展阶段，制定差异化的能源发展战略。低收入和小岛屿国家应优先提升能源可及性，确保供电安全和基本民生需求，同时结合分布式能源发展特色产业。具 备工业化条件的国家需保障工业用能，加快新能源开发，以传统能源作为支撑，为经济发展奠定基础。中高收入或能源条件较好的国家则应加强清洁能源技 术创新，推动能源结构优化和经济体系绿色转型。 构建稳定的能源绿色低碳发展制度是关键。各国应加快完善能源政策体系，推进市场机制和制度创新，优化绿色投融资框架，形成系统化、可持续的支持体 系。国际社会也应在经贸规则、绿色产品流通、技术合作和投资等方面提供支持，助力全球南方实现能源可持续发展 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural product processing industry Core Insights - The agricultural product processing industry in China is experiencing robust growth, driven by rising consumer income, health awareness, and technological advancements, with an expected growth rate of over 8% in the next five years [14] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards smart, green, and high-end processing, integrating advanced information technology and environmental concepts to enhance production efficiency and product quality [12][14] - The market is characterized by a diverse product range, including grain processing, oil processing, fruit and vegetable processing, livestock product processing, and aquaculture processing, with emerging sectors like biofuels and biochemicals gaining importance [4][9] Industry Overview - Agricultural product processing refers to the transformation of primary agricultural products into value-added products through various technical means and processes, including physical, chemical, and biological treatments [3] - The industry serves as a bridge between agriculture and industry, effectively extending the shelf life of agricultural products and enhancing their quality and value [3] Industry Development History - The industry began with small-scale workshops and has evolved significantly since the 1950s, transitioning from rudimentary processing to large-scale mechanized operations, although challenges in product diversity and technology remain [9][11] - Post-reform, the industry has seen rapid growth due to market economy establishment and foreign policy, leading to increased enterprise numbers and product diversification [11] Current Industry Analysis - As of 2024, the market size of China's agricultural product processing industry has surpassed several trillion RMB, indicating strong development momentum and market potential [13] - The industry is primarily concentrated in regions with significant agricultural production, such as Northeast, North China, East China, and South China, forming specialized agricultural processing clusters [15][17] Market Demand and Consumer Trends - Consumer demand for processed agricultural products is becoming more diverse, with a shift towards functional foods, organic products, and convenience foods driven by rising health awareness [19][20] - The emphasis on product quality is increasing, with consumers prioritizing nutritional value, safety, and transparency in food production [21] Technological Development and Innovation Trends - The application of smart manufacturing technologies is becoming widespread in agricultural product processing, enhancing production efficiency and quality stability [37] - The introduction of biotechnology and enzyme engineering is revolutionizing traditional food processing methods, improving product taste and nutritional value [38] Policy Environment and Regulatory Impact - The government is actively promoting agricultural modernization through various policies, including subsidies for processing equipment and support for agricultural technology innovation [53] - Environmental protection and energy-saving policies are increasingly influencing industry practices, encouraging companies to adopt green development strategies [58] Competitive Landscape and Major Company Analysis - The industry is characterized by a mix of large leading enterprises and numerous small and medium-sized enterprises, creating a competitive yet complementary environment [18] - Leading companies are focusing on R&D investment and brand building to enhance their core competitiveness and market influence [72][73]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, which have created mixed signals in the market. The report notes that oil prices have experienced a decline, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at $67.75 and $62.89 per barrel, respectively, as of February 13, 2026 [2][9] - The report indicates an increase in US crude oil production, reaching 13.713 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 498,000 barrels per day from the previous week. However, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has decreased by 3 to 409 rigs [33][42] - The report also mentions that US crude oil inventories have risen by 8.44 million barrels, marking a 1.02% increase, with commercial crude oil stocks increasing by 8.53 million barrels, a 2.03% rise [46] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of February 13, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $67.75 per barrel, down $0.30 (-0.44%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $62.89 per barrel, down $0.66 (-1.04%) [2][23] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms is 368, a decrease of 2 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms is 131, also down by 1 [26] Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production is reported at 13.713 million barrels per day, an increase of 498,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs is 409, down by 3 [33] Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude oil processing volume is 16 million barrels per day, a decrease of 29,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.40%, down 1.1 percentage points [45] Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory stands at 844 million barrels, with a 1.02% increase of 8.529 million barrels from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels, a 2.03% rise [46] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Fengbei Bio experienced a decline in stock price and trading volume, with significant net financing outflows on February 12, indicating potential investor concerns [1] - On February 12, Fengbei Bio's stock price fell by 3.03%, with a trading volume of 199 million yuan. The net financing buy was -6.46 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 97.52 million yuan, accounting for 5.87% of the circulating market value [1] - The company specializes in the comprehensive utilization of waste oil resources, with its main business revenue composition being 91.18% from waste resource utilization, including 79.60% from bio-based materials and 11.58% from biofuels [1] Group 2 - As of December 10, the number of shareholders for Fengbei Bio was 27,600, a decrease of 50.19% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 100.77% [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Fengbei Bio achieved an operating income of 2.251 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.32%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 117 million yuan, up 35.32% year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bunge recently released its 2025 financial report and 2026 earnings guidance, highlighting that future events will primarily revolve around policy implementation and financial performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Bunge forecasts its adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be in the range of $7.50 to $8.00, which is below the Wall Street analysts' consensus estimate of $8.71 [2] - The company identified major pressure factors including commodity market volatility, trade disruptions, and narrowing processing margins [2] - Market attention will focus on whether the actual quarterly financial results for 2026 align with the guidance, particularly regarding profit changes in North American operations influenced by biofuel policy [2] Group 2: Industry Policy and Environment - The U.S. Treasury Department released a draft of the 45Z tax credit rules in early February 2026, but the final rules for biofuel blending quotas are still under review, expected to be announced around March 2026 [3] - If the rules maintain the initial proposal levels, it could stimulate demand for oilseeds like soybeans, but the actual impact on Bunge's profitability will depend on the details of the implementation [3] - Delays or changes in policy may continue to suppress customer order willingness, with Bunge's management emphasizing that "market outlook is difficult to predict," necessitating close monitoring of policy announcements and their ripple effects on the agricultural sector [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Fengbei Biotechnology's stock has experienced a decline of 2.54%, with a total market value of 7.937 billion yuan and a cumulative drop of 6.73% over three consecutive days [1] - Fengbei Biotechnology, established on July 25, 2014, focuses on the comprehensive utilization of waste oil resources, with 91.18% of its revenue coming from this segment, including 79.60% from bio-based materials and 11.58% from biofuels [1] - The company's stock price is currently at 55.31 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 189 million yuan and a turnover rate of 10.80% [1] Group 2 - E Fund's fund holds a small position in Fengbei Biotechnology, with 88 shares representing 0.0002% of the circulating shares, ranking as the fourth largest holding [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 126.72 yuan today and a total floating loss of 351.12 yuan during the three-day decline [2] - E Fund's fund has a total asset size of 5.93 billion yuan, with a year-to-date return of 15.3% and a cumulative return of 20.92% since inception [2]