Report Information - Report Date: March 16, 2026 [2] - Report Author: Ye Qianning [2] - Author's Qualification Number: Z0016628 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1292 [2] Commodity Information Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5928, futures price is 5888, basis is 40, basis rate is 0.68%, historical quantile is 60.40% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 6170, futures price is 6176, basis is -6, basis rate is -0.10%, historical quantile is 23.80% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3250, futures price is 3142, basis is 108, basis rate is 3.44%, historical quantile is 50.10% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3270, futures price is 3505, basis is -25, basis rate is -0.76%, historical quantile is 9.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 850, futures price is 812, basis is 38, basis rate is 4.69%, historical quantile is 31.20% [1] - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1734, futures price is 1738, basis is -3, basis rate is -0.19%, historical quantile is 63.24% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1243, futures price is 1178, basis is 65, basis rate is 5.52%, historical quantile is 40.70% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2604)**: Spot price is 100515, futures price is 100310, basis is 205, basis rate is 0.20%, historical quantile is 74.79% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2604)**: Spot price is 25120, futures price is 24960, basis is 160, basis rate is 0.64%, historical quantile is 90.62% [1] - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2695, futures price is 2956, basis is -261, basis rate is -8.81%, historical quantile is 2.86% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2604)**: Spot price is 24010, futures price is 24140, basis is -130, basis rate is -0.54%, historical quantile is 29.79% [1] - **Tin (SN2604)**: Spot price is 386600, futures price is 374110, basis is 12490, basis rate is 3.34%, historical quantile is 98.75% [1] - **Nickel (NISEOF)**: Spot price is 137950, futures price is 136930, basis is 1020, basis rate is 0.74%, historical quantile is 91.45% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2605)**: Spot price is 14450, futures price is 14190, basis is 430, basis rate is 3.03%, historical quantile is 76.39% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 159000, futures price is 152080, basis is 6920, basis rate is 4.55%, historical quantile is 98.45% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SISEOF)**: Spot price is 9200, futures price is 8675, basis is 525, basis rate is 6.05%, historical quantile is 33.86% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2604)**: Spot price is 1131.3, futures price is 1133.00, basis is -1.8, basis rate is -0.15%, historical quantile is 48.20% [1] - **Silver (AG2606)**: Spot price is 20887.0, futures price is 20923.0, basis is -36.0, basis rate is -0.17%, historical quantile is 28.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9750, futures price is 9768.0, basis is -18.0, basis rate is -0.18%, historical quantile is 21.40% [3] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2630, futures price is 2591.0, basis is 39.0, basis rate is 1.51%, historical quantile is 53.00% [3] - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Spot price is 10540, futures price is 9821.0, basis is 719.0, basis rate is 7.32%, historical quantile is 95.60% [3] - **Corn (C2605)**: Spot price is 2430, futures price is 2386.0, basis is 44.0, basis rate is 1.84%, historical quantile is 57.90% [3] - **Corn Starch (CS2605)**: Spot price is 2800, futures price is 2729.0, basis is 71.0, basis rate is 2.60%, historical quantile is 30.20% [3] - **Live Hogs (LH2605)**: Spot price is 10150, futures price is 11150.0, basis is -1000.0, basis rate is -8.97%, historical quantile is 18.20% [3] - **Eggs (JD2605)**: Spot price is 3000, futures price is 3433.0, basis is -433.0, basis rate is -12.61%, historical quantile is 11.50% [3] - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 16650, futures price is 15415.0, basis is 1235.0, basis rate is 8.01%, historical quantile is 85.50% [3] - **White Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5500, futures price is 5447.0, basis is 53.0, basis rate is 0.97%, historical quantile is 7.80% [3] - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9800, futures price is 9998.0, basis is -198.0, basis rate is -1.98%, historical quantile is 14.90% [3] - **Jujubes (C1605)**: Spot price is 7900, futures price is 9095.0, basis is -1195.0, basis rate is -13.14%, historical quantile is 36.60% [3] - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3390, futures price is 3128.0, basis is 262.0, basis rate is 8.38%, historical quantile is 68.50% [5] - **Soybean Oil (V2605)**: Spot price is 8900, futures price is 8690.0, basis is 210.0, basis rate is 2.42%, historical quantile is 44.00% [5] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX605)**: Spot price is 10128.5, futures price is 10018.0, basis is 110.5, basis rate is 1.10%, historical quantile is 62.90% [3] - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 6930.0, futures price is 6934.0, basis is -4.0, basis rate is -0.06%, historical quantile is 57.30% [3] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 4560.0, futures price is 4729.0, basis is -169.0, basis rate is -3.57%, historical quantile is 3.90% [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF604)**: Spot price is 8400.0, futures price is 8382.0, basis is 18.0, basis rate is 0.21%, historical quantile is 48.70% [3] - **Styrene (EB2604)**: Spot price is 9865.0, futures price is 10000.0, basis is -135.0, basis rate is -1.35%, historical quantile is 9.80% [3] - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2825.0, futures price is 2805.0, basis is 20.0, basis rate is 0.71%, historical quantile is 56.70% [3] - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1900.0, futures price is 1889.0, basis is 11.0, basis rate is 0.58%, historical quantile is 20.60% [3] - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 8275.0, futures price is 8416.0, basis is -141.0, basis rate is -1.68%, historical quantile is 2.30% [3] - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 8700.0, futures price is 8603.0, basis is 97.0, basis rate is 1.13%, historical quantile is 54.90% [3] - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 5670.0, futures price is 5724.0, basis is -54.0, basis rate is -0.94%, historical quantile is 70.30% [3] - **Caustic Soda (SH605)**: Spot price is 2093.8, futures price is 2604.0, basis is -510.3, basis rate is -19.59%, historical quantile is 0.50% [3] - **LPG (PG2604)**: Spot price is 6148.0, futures price is 5734.0, basis is 414.0, basis rate is 7.22%, historical quantile is 58.40% [3] - **Asphalt (BU2604)**: Spot price is 3970.0, futures price is 4089.0, basis is -119.0, basis rate is -2.91%, historical quantile is 26.80% [3] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2604)**: Spot price is 15600.0, futures price is 15725.0, basis is -125.0, basis rate is -0.79%, historical quantile is 18.90% [3] - **Glass (FG605)**: Spot price is 976.0, futures price is 1135.0, basis is -159.0, basis rate is -16.29%, historical quantile is 9.05% [3] - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Spot price is 1257.0, futures price is 1277.0, basis is -20.0, basis rate is -1.59%, historical quantile is 46.94% [3] - **Pure Benzene (BZ2604)**: Spot price is 8270.0, futures price is 8288.0, basis is -18.0, basis rate is -0.22%, historical quantile is 86.10% [3] - **Propylene (PL2605)**: Spot price is 8050.0, futures price is 8342.0, basis is -292.0, basis rate is -3.50%, historical quantile is 6.40% [3] - **Bottle Chips (PR2605)**: Spot price is 8950.0, futures price is 8306.0, basis is 644.0, basis rate is 7.75%, historical quantile is 99.40% [3] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price is 16900.0, futures price is 16765.0, basis is 135.0, basis rate is 0.80%, historical quantile is 98.32% [3] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2603.CFF**: Spot price is 4669.1400, futures price is 4658.0, basis is -11.1400, basis rate is -0.24%, historical quantile is 36.70% [3] - **IH2603.CFE**: Spot price is 2956.8468, futures price is 2957.0, basis is 0.1532, basis rate is 0.01%, historical quantile is 56.20% [3] - **IC2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8239.7980, futures price is 8213.8, basis is -25.9980, basis rate is -0.32%, historical quantile is 44.70% [3] - **IM2603.CFE**: Spot price is 8214.2926, futures price is 8187.0, basis is -27.2926, basis rate is -0.33%, historical quantile is 50.70% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2606)**: Spot price is 100.03, futures price is 102.47, basis is 0.00, basis rate is 0.00%, historical quantile is 29.80%, conversion factor is 0.9762 [3] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2606)**: Spot price is 100.17, futures price is 105.97, basis is 0.03, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 33.60%, conversion factor is 0.9450 [3] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2606)**: Spot price is 99.85, futures price is 108.24, basis is 0.07, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 26.20%, conversion factor is 0.9219 [3] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2606)**: Spot price is 121.90, futures price is 111.11, basis is 0.40, basis rate is 0.36%, historical quantile is 58.00%, conversion factor is 1.0935 [3] Data Source - Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [3] Historical Quantile Calculation - Based on the basis levels of each variety in the