22 January 2026 | 1:28AM HKT Equity Research TFC Optical (300394.SZ): 1.6T Optical engines sequential ramp up ahead; 4Q midpoint NI guidance lower-than-expected on near-term TFC Optical announced 2025 net income guidance at Rmb1.88bn~Rmb2.15bn, or +40%~60% YoY, suggesting 4Q25 NI at Rmb416m~Rmb685m, or midpoint at Rmb551m. The 4Q NI guidance is generally in line with our estimates, while the midpoint is 15% below our previous estimates, and we attribute it to the tight supply of EML chipset in 4Q considerin ...

Summary of TFC Optical (300394.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TFC Optical (300394.SZ) - **Market Cap**: Rmb154.9 billion / $22.0 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb152.7 billion / $21.7 billion - **Current Price**: Rmb199.30 - **Target Price**: Rmb271.00 - **Upside Potential**: 36.0% [1][7] Key Industry Insights - **Optical Engines**: TFC Optical is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of 1.6T optical engines in 2026, driven by increased demand for Co-Packaged Switch (CPO) switches and long-term opportunities in scale-up architecture [1][2]. - **Mass Production**: The company has commenced mass production of 1.6T optical engines in the second half of 2025, with projected shipments of 585k, 1.9 million, and 2.3 million units for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][3]. Core Arguments and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue projections have been revised upwards, with estimates of Rmb5,629 million for 2025, Rmb9,666 million for 2026, and Rmb13,069 million for 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 73.1% in 2025 and 71.7% in 2026 [7][24]. - **Earnings Growth**: Net income estimates have been increased by 2% for 2025, 23% for 2026, and 32% for 2027, primarily due to higher revenues and improved gross margins [24][26]. - **Gross Margin Improvement**: Gross margins are expected to improve due to a product mix shift towards higher-margin 1.6T solutions [24][26]. Catalysts for Growth - **Increased Demand**: Rising demand for 1.6T optical engines and large-scale Gen-AI applications requiring higher throughput [3]. - **CPO Switches**: Gradual ramp-up of scale-out CPO switches, which offer lower latency and better power efficiency [22]. - **Scale-Up Architecture**: Long-term opportunities in scale-up architecture to enhance GPU interconnections, providing incremental growth for optical engines [23]. Financial Metrics - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS of Rmb2.72 for 2025, Rmb5.19 for 2026, and Rmb7.24 for 2027 [7][16]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: Expected P/E ratios of 39.5x for 2024, 73.3x for 2025, and decreasing to 27.5x by 2027 [7][13]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Projected free cash flow of Rmb1,121.6 million in 2025, increasing to Rmb4,197.6 million by 2027 [16][30]. Risks and Challenges - **Demand Fluctuations**: Potential slower-than-expected demand for high-speed transmissions, particularly in Gen-AI applications [31]. - **Geopolitical Issues**: Risks related to supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [32]. - **CPO Adoption**: Slower-than-expected adoption of CPO switches could impact earnings [32]. - **Market Competition**: Increased competition from new entrants or suppliers of in-house optical transceiver solutions [32]. Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: TFC Optical is upgraded to a "Buy" rating with a target price of Rmb271, reflecting a strong outlook driven by the ramp-up of 1.6T optical engines and favorable market conditions [1][36].