Summary of Global Optical Transceivers Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Global Optical Transceiver market**, with significant updates on the **TAM (Total Addressable Market)** forecast for 2026-2028, driven by the increasing demand for AI servers and advancements in optical transceiver technology [1][26]. Key Insights - The **Global Optical Transceiver value TAM** is raised by **43%** and **46%** for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with projected shipments of **800G** and **1.6T** units reaching **38 million** and **14 million** in 2026 [1][28]. - The **CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)** for shipments of **800G and above optical transceivers** is expected to be **34%** from 2026 to 2028, reaching **94 million** units by 2028 [1][21]. - The **ASIC penetration rate** for AI chips is projected to increase to **50%** by 2027, up from **45%**, indicating a shift towards more efficient AI server architectures [1][26]. Market Dynamics - **Upstream supply constraints** such as EML and CW lasers are critical factors affecting delivery timelines for optical transceiver manufacturers [1][29]. - The transition from **pluggable optical transceivers** to **on-board optics (NPO)** and eventually to **co-packaged optics (CPO)** is anticipated to influence market dynamics significantly [1][30]. Shipment and Revenue Estimates - The **Global Optical module market** is projected to grow from **$33.7 billion** in 2025 to **$49.5 billion** in 2028, with a notable shift in product mix towards higher-speed modules [1][28]. - Shipments of **400G or lower** are expected to decline from **94%** of total shipments in 2025 to **80%** by 2028, indicating a market shift towards higher-speed optical transceivers [21][22]. Competitive Landscape - Companies rated as **Buy** include: - **Optical transceiver makers**: Innolight, Eoptolink, TFC Optical - **CW lasers/Epiwafer suppliers**: Landmark, VPEC - **Data center switch**: Ruijie [2]. Potential Risks - **Geopolitical tensions** may impact the supply and demand dynamics of AI chip platforms, particularly in the Chinese market [29]. - The **size of AI server clusters** could affect the number of optical modules used, with smaller clusters potentially leading to lower attach rates [29]. Technology Trends - The **adoption of Silicon Photonics (SiPh)** is expected to increase, with projections indicating that SiPh will account for **15%** of the market by 2028, particularly in high-speed applications [9][25]. - The **migration to higher-speed connections** (800G and above) is becoming mainstream for large-scale data centers, with significant growth expected in the **1.6T** and **3.2T** segments starting from 2026 [22][23]. Conclusion - The Global Optical Transceiver market is poised for substantial growth driven by advancements in AI server technology and increasing demand for high-speed connectivity solutions. The ongoing shifts in technology and market dynamics present both opportunities and challenges for industry players.