Summary of Deutsche Bank Research Institute Report on Long-Term Investing Industry Overview - The report focuses on long-term investing strategies and asset class performance across various macroeconomic environments, drawing on data from 56 economies over more than 200 years [2][6][11]. Key Findings Historical Performance of Asset Classes - Median global inflation-adjusted returns in USD terms show: - Equities: 4.9% p.a. - 60/40 Portfolio: 4.2% - Government Bonds: 2.6% - Bills: 1.9% - Gold: 0.4% - Cash: -2.0% [6][14]. - Gold has underperformed compared to financial assets historically, but in the 21st century, it has outperformed with a return of 7.45% p.a. [6][16]. - The best-performing equity markets over the last century were in Sweden (7.5% p.a.) and the US (7.2% p.a.), while Italy had the worst performance for equities (2.5% p.a.) and bonds (-1.1%) [6][19]. Economic Growth and Returns - Nominal GDP growth is a key driver of asset-class returns, averaging 5.7% annually since 1900 [6][19]. - Developed markets (DM) have seen a decline in nominal GDP growth, with projections of around 4% over the next five years, which is below historical averages [6][32]. - Real GDP growth in developed markets is at its lowest level in a century, reinforcing the link between economic growth and investment returns [6][41]. Investment Risks and Probabilities - The probability of equities underperforming cash over 25 years is only 0.8%, but this rises to 6.3% over 10 years and 13.6% over five years [10]. - For government bonds, the probability of underperforming inflation is around 25% across various time frames [10]. - A 60/40 portfolio has historically offered the lowest probability of nominal losses, with just a 0.1% chance of negative returns over 25 years [10]. Demographic Trends - Both developed and emerging markets are experiencing slow population growth, with 32 economies projected to see a decline in their working-age population by 2050 [9][54]. - Countries with declining working-age populations may struggle to sustain real GDP growth, impacting future investment returns [59][60]. Inflation and Returns - Historical data indicates that equities serve as an effective hedge against inflation, with nominal equity returns rising with inflation [50]. - However, real returns tend to decline slightly as inflation increases, suggesting that equities perform best in lower-inflation environments [50][52]. Currency Depreciation - Over the past century, only three economies (Switzerland, Singapore, and the Netherlands) have seen their currencies appreciate against the US dollar, while many have depreciated significantly [91][93]. - The US has been a significant relative winner in currency terms, influencing returns when measured in USD [97]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of starting valuations in predicting long-term performance, with low P/E portfolios outperforming high P/E portfolios historically [9][81]. - The relationship between equities and bonds has reverted to a positive correlation post-COVID, suggesting that both asset classes may move in tandem more often in the future [83][87]. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for investors looking to navigate long-term investment strategies in a changing economic landscape.

Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The article discusses the historical difficulty in identifying market bubbles in real-time, emphasizing the role of crowd behavior in driving prices to unsustainable levels [1] - Financial advisors are encouraged to act as behavioral coaches rather than mere forecasters, highlighting the importance of personal resilience during market volatility [2] - The oil market is currently oversupplied, with global inventories at near four-year highs, which is limiting the impact of sanctions on Russia [3] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio may not be sufficient to protect retirement savings from long-term stagnation in investment returns, referred to as the "lost decade" [4] Group 2: Alternative Investments and Fundraising - Franklin Templeton is focusing on expanding its outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) business by catering to the demand for customized portfolio management from wealth and family office clients [5] - Alternative investment fundraising has reached approximately $148.4 billion year-to-date, with public non-traded business development companies leading the way at $34.5 billion [6] - There are concerns that retail investors may not fully understand the complexities and risks associated with alternative investment products being marketed to them [7] Group 3: Infrastructure and Real Estate Investments - McKinsey's research indicates that global data centers will require $6.7 trillion in investment to meet the growing demand for computing power, with an additional $5.2 trillion needed for AI-related infrastructure by 2030 [8] - Investment in qualified opportunity zone funds (QOFs) saw a significant decline in Q3 2025, raising only $436.8 million, as investors show caution ahead of a projected "dead period" for opportunity zone investments [9] - Apollo Global Management has appointed Bert Crouch as head of its real estate equity division, following its acquisition of Bridge Investment Group, which nearly doubled its real estate assets under management to $110 billion [10][2] Group 4: Leadership Changes in Financial Firms - Goldman Sachs Asset Management has appointed David Blank from UBS as the head of sales for separately managed accounts and portfolio solutions, indicating a strategic move to enhance its offerings in this area [11]

Core Insights - Individuals in their mid-60s should begin serious retirement planning as retirement approaches [1] - The management of an IRA over the next five years is crucial for determining retirement outcomes [2] Investment Strategies - **Investing in Bonds**: A full investment in investment-grade bonds yielding an average of 5.6% could grow an IRA of $250,000 to approximately $328,291 by retirement [4] - **Investing in the S&P 500**: Allocating all assets to an S&P 500 index fund could yield a potential value of $402,628 by age 70, assuming a 10% average market return, though this is riskier given the short investment horizon [5] - **Building a 60/40 Portfolio**: A traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds portfolio could grow to about $380,615 by age 70, based on a historical growth rate of 8.77% per year [7] Financial Advisory - A strategic mix of stocks and bonds can provide a balance of growth and safety, and consulting a financial advisor may help align asset allocation with individual risk tolerance and goals [8]