Winter Is Coming | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | JD.com, Inc. (JD.O) | From | To | | Rating | Equal-weight | Underweight | Tapering trade-in effects and incessant investment in new businesses are set to significantly slow JD's revenue growth and structurally erode its margins and ROE in the long term – hence weakening its ability to improve shareholder return. Downgrade to UW. M Worst positioned Chinese e-Commerce stock in the next 12 months: JD had benefited the most (vs. other e-Commerce plat ...

Core Insights - JD.com is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on November 13, with revenue estimates at $41.33 billion, reflecting an 11.4% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share are projected at 46 cents, indicating a 62.9% decline from the previous year [1][9] Earnings Performance - In the last quarter, JD.com achieved an earnings surprise of 13.76%, consistently beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past four quarters with an average surprise of 18.89% [2] Earnings Predictions - Current analysis indicates a negative Earnings ESP of -3.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3] Growth Factors - JD.com entered Q3 2025 with strong momentum, reporting a 22% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2, with active customer engagement increasing over 40% [4] Retail Performance - Continued strength in JD Retail is anticipated, with prior revenue growth of 21% and an operating margin of 4.5%. Categories like electronics and home appliances benefited from government trade-in incentives, while general merchandise showed steady growth [5][9] Food Delivery Segment - JD Food Delivery, launched in February, is expected to have expanded its logistics and merchant base, although high operating costs may have impacted profitability [6] Strategic Acquisition - JD announced a voluntary public takeover offer for CECONOMY AG, valued at EUR 2.2 billion, highlighting its international diversification strategy, though it may face regulatory and integration challenges [7][18] Stock Performance - JD.com shares have declined 8.3% year-to-date, underperforming compared to the Internet-Commerce industry and major indices, while competitors like Amazon and PDD Holdings have seen significant stock appreciation [10] Valuation Metrics - JD.com currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9.06X, significantly lower than the industry average of 25.33X, indicating a potentially undervalued position relative to expected earnings growth [13][18] Investment Considerations - JD.com shows stable growth prospects supported by retail demand and strategic diversification, but ongoing investments in logistics and international ventures may pressure near-term profitability [15][19]