Core Insights - JD.com and Meituan are intensifying their competition in the instant commerce sector by establishing thousands of central kitchens to enhance the efficiency of online food order fulfillment [1] - Instant commerce in China is rapidly evolving, catering to hundreds of millions of consumers who prefer on-demand delivery for a variety of products and services [2][4] - The competition among instant commerce providers is characterized by heavy reliance on subsidies and operational efficiency rather than traditional competitive strategies [3] Company Strategies - Meituan plans to build 1,200 "Raccoon Restaurants" over three years to streamline operations for multiple restaurant chains, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency [10] - JD.com is investing 1 billion yuan to establish 10,000 self-operated 7Fresh kitchens, promoting a diverse menu to a nationwide audience [11] - Alibaba has integrated its food delivery platform Ele.me and travel agency Fliggy into its core e-commerce business to enhance its ecosystem [14] Market Dynamics - The instant commerce market is experiencing significant promotional activities, with daily transactions reaching hundreds of millions and costs associated with discounts and promotions in the hundreds of millions of yuan [16] - Alibaba's daily orders reached an all-time high of 120 million in August, while Meituan peaked at 150 million in July, indicating a competitive landscape [17] - Daily active users for Taobao, Meituan, and JD.com grew by 16%, 21%, and 24% respectively from January to July [18] Financial Performance - Meituan's CFO indicated expectations of substantial losses in Q3 due to strategic investments in incentives and marketing [22] - Alibaba's cash and investments were reported at 585.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than Meituan's 171.1 billion yuan, providing Alibaba with a financial advantage [23] - S&P analysts predict that all three instant commerce providers will face margin pressures for the next 12 to 24 months, with an estimated expenditure of at least 160 billion yuan to maintain market share [22] Future Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Meituan will maintain a 75% market share in China's food delivery market by 2030, while its share in instant commerce may decrease to 48%, closely competing with Alibaba's expected 47% share [31] - Instant commerce order growth is expected to slow down after promotional activities diminish, although overall volumes are projected to increase by 40% this year compared to 2024 [32]