Summary of Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech (002518.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech (002518.SZ) - **Industry**: Electric power conversion technology, focusing on data centers and energy storage systems (ESS) Key Financial Highlights - **FY25 Net Income**: Expected in the range of Rmb600 million to Rmb660 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 52% to 67%, with a midpoint growth of 60% [5] - **Recurring Net Income**: Projected between Rmb550 million and Rmb620 million, indicating a 60% to 80% year-over-year increase, with a midpoint growth of 70% [5] - **4Q25 Net Income**: Estimated between Rmb154 million and Rmb214 million, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 313% to 473% [5] - **Sales Growth**: Anticipated total sales CAGR of 27% from 2025 to 2030, driven by overseas high-power electrical sales [1][9] Revenue and Earnings Forecast - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2025E: Rmb5,332 million - 2026E: Rmb7,527 million - 2027E: Rmb9,761 million - 2028E: Rmb11,861 million - 2029E: Rmb14,334 million - 2030E: Rmb17,384 million [6] - **Net Income Forecast**: - 2025E: Rmb632 million - 2026E: Rmb1,046 million - 2027E: Rmb1,451 million - 2028E: Rmb1,865 million - 2029E: Rmb2,356 million - 2030E: Rmb2,940 million [6] Strategic Initiatives - **Overseas Expansion**: Kstar is focusing on increasing its overseas sales, particularly in high-power electricals, which are expected to rise from Rmb100 million in 2025E to Rmb800 million in 2026E [1] - **Product Development**: The company is actively developing next-generation products, including 800V DC systems, to capitalize on the architecture upgrade cycle expected from 2026 [1][11] - **ODM Model**: The overseas ODM model is projected to command a pricing premium of 25% to 50% compared to domestic orders, enhancing profitability [1] Margin and Return Expectations - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected to expand to 33% by 2028E, supported by a higher mix of overseas sales [1] - **Operating Profit Margin (OPM)**: Anticipated to reach 18% by 2028E [1] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Projected average ROE of 25% from 2026 to 2030 [1] Investment Thesis - **Growth Drivers**: - Expansion into overseas markets, particularly North America - Increased domestic data center revenue due to higher capital expenditures from state-owned and private enterprises - Recovery in overseas ESS business driven by normalized channel inventories and demand [19] - **Valuation**: The 12-month price target is set at Rmb67.6, based on a P/E ratio of 26x for 2028E, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price [2][7] Risks - **Key Risks**: - Lower-than-expected growth in US ODM orders - Delays in new product launches, particularly the 800V DC products - Slower growth in overseas ESS and associated margins [20] Conclusion - **Recommendation**: Maintain a Buy rating on Kstar, given its strong growth prospects, attractive valuation, and ongoing transition into a key ODM partner for global data center electrical players [2][19]

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Kstar and Kehua Industry Overview - The report focuses on the data center electricals industry, specifically analyzing two companies: Kstar and Kehua. - Kstar is positioned as a key ODM partner for global players, particularly in the US AI data center market, while Kehua faces challenges due to high domestic competition in China. Kstar Highlights - **Investment Recommendation**: Kstar is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month target price of Rmb67.6, indicating a 26% upside potential [1][2]. - **Valuation**: Kstar is valued at 26x 2028E P/E, reflecting a strong long-term growth outlook with a projected earnings CAGR of 26% from 2028E to 2030E [2]. - **Sales Growth**: Kstar is expected to achieve a total sales CAGR of 27% from 2025E to 2030E, driven by overseas high-power electrical sales, which are projected to increase from Rmb100 million in 2025E to Rmb800 million in 2026E [7][19]. - **Pricing Power**: The overseas ODM model allows Kstar to command a pricing premium of 25-50% compared to domestic orders, contributing to an expected gross profit margin (GPM) of 33% and operating profit margin (OPM) of 18% by 2028E [7][21]. - **Product Pipeline**: Kstar is actively developing next-generation products, including 800V DC and SST systems, with launches planned for early 2026 [10][19]. - **Market Position**: Kstar is gaining market share in the domestic market, particularly with major clients like Alibaba and ByteDance, and is expected to become a significant UPS supplier by 2026 [19]. Kehua Highlights - **Investment Recommendation**: Kehua is rated as "Neutral" with a 12-month target price of Rmb50.5, indicating a 24% downside potential [1][3]. - **Valuation**: Kehua is valued at 30x 2026E P/E, with a lower earnings growth potential of 21% CAGR from 2026E to 2030E compared to Kstar [3]. - **Sales Growth**: Kehua is projected to have a total sales CAGR of 16% from 2025E to 2030E, primarily driven by domestic demand [27]. - **Customer Concentration**: Kehua's growth may be limited due to high customer concentration and intense competition in the domestic market, with a modest sales CAGR of 16% expected [7][39]. - **Overseas Expansion**: Kehua's overseas expansion is slower compared to Kstar, with only 12% of segment sales expected to come from international markets by 2025E [42]. - **Product Portfolio**: Kehua has a strong product portfolio and partnerships with Chinese hyperscalers, but faces challenges in maintaining margins due to competitive pricing pressures [42]. Financial Projections - **Kstar Financials**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from Rmb5,332 million in 2025E to Rmb17,384 million by 2030E [24]. - Expected ROE to improve to 25% by 2030E, up from 16% in 2021-2024 [21]. - **Kehua Financials**: - Total revenue is expected to grow from Rmb4,159 million in 2024 to Rmb7,259 million by 2030E [24]. - ROE is projected to reach 17% by 2030E, still lower than Kstar due to intense domestic competition [43]. Key Risks and Considerations - **Kstar Risks**: Dependence on successful product launches and maintaining competitive pricing in the US market [19]. - **Kehua Risks**: High customer concentration and limited overseas market penetration could hinder growth [42][43]. Conclusion - Kstar presents a more favorable investment opportunity with strong growth prospects and better positioning in the US market, while Kehua faces challenges that may limit its growth potential in the competitive domestic landscape.