Sungrow Power Supply Co. (300274.SZ) 2Q25 in line; NT US ESS demand strong on rush project new starts but with LT uncertainties; AIDC power business still in early stage; Neutral 300274.SZ 12m Price Target: Rmb79.70 Price: Rmb102.60 Downside: 22.3% Post market close on Aug 25, 2025, Sungrow announced 2Q25 results in line with GSe, with revenue/gross profit/EBIT/net income at Rmb24,497mn/Rmb8,269mn/Rmb4,603mn/Rmb3,908mn (+33%/+52%/+30%/+37% yoy), -5%/+4%/-10%/-4% vs. GSe, largely in line; GPM/OPM/NPM was 34% ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the AI Data Center (AIDC) industry, particularly the trends and developments in power supply systems and related technologies [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **NVIDIA Supply Chain**: The continuous rise in NVIDIA's supply chain is noted, with domestic power supply products like optical modules, PCBs, and copper foils performing strongly. Companies like Defu and Zhongyi Copper Foil are benefiting from industry inflation [1][3]. - **Power Density Increase**: The power density in data centers is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating that the number of GPUs per rack will rise from 36 to 576 between 2024 and 2029, reaching peak power levels of 1,000 kW [1][4]. - **Transition to HVDC**: The transition from UPS to High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) systems is highlighted, with domestic companies like Tencent and Alibaba moving towards HVDC technology. This shift is expected to enhance efficiency and reliability in power supply systems [1][6][7]. - **Emerging Companies**: Companies such as Megmeet and Oulu Tong are expected to enter the NVIDIA supply chain, while Jianghai Co. is noted for its potential in the supercapacitor field [1][5]. - **Market Expansion**: Sunshine Power's entry into the AIDC market is anticipated to expand market space and lead to a reevaluation of supply chains, indicating optimism for the AIDC sector and advanced power supply technologies [1][9]. Additional Important Content - **Technological Changes**: Significant technological advancements are occurring in three main areas: external power supply systems transitioning to HVDC, internal server power supply moving to DCDC conversion, and onboard power supply reducing voltage levels for electronic circuits [7][8]. - **IDC Service Trends**: The overall service rate for IDC is steadily increasing, with new high-power cabinets expected to launch in 2025. Companies like Kehua Data and Zhongheng Electric are actively pursuing tenders from major players like ByteDance and Alibaba [2][16]. - **Market Dynamics**: The global harmonic governance market is valued at over 5 billion RMB, with significant growth potential in the overseas market, which is four times larger than the domestic market [23]. - **Diesel Generator Demand**: Diesel generators are becoming standard in new data center constructions due to increased power supply quality requirements, with specifications for performance and capacity rising significantly [24][25]. Conclusion - The AIDC industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for efficient power supply systems. Companies that adapt to these changes and enter emerging markets are likely to see significant opportunities for growth and investment.

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rapid growth of global AIDC capital expenditure driven by high demand in the industry, particularly due to advancements in AI technology and the increasing investment in data centers by cloud service providers (CSPs) [2] Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - Global data center installed capacity is expected to exceed 100 GW by 2025, with projected growth rates of 21% and 15% for the periods 2024-2030 under optimistic and neutral scenarios, respectively [2] - AIDC is evolving towards direct current (DC), high voltage, and high density, moving away from traditional power supply methods [2][3] - The market for external power supply is projected to reach 99.6 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 50% from 2024 to 2030 [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - AI server power supplies are adhering to OCP ORV3 standards, with power density increasing as GPU power rises, leading to higher value and profit margins [3] - The introduction of high-power supplies (5.5 kW and above) is expected to coincide with the next generation of technology, enhancing market dynamics [3] - New demands are emerging in the AIDC sector, with products like supercapacitors and battery backup units (BBUs) becoming essential for stabilizing power fluctuations from AI chips [3][4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned in the evolving landscape, including those in power supply, distribution, and related technologies [4] - Key companies highlighted for investment include Megmeet, Zhongheng Electric, and Keda Data, among others, across various segments such as supercapacitors and BBU [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the AIDC industry, driven by high growth in global capital expenditure and increasing demand for data centers [2][11][18]. Core Insights - The AIDC industry is experiencing a significant transformation towards direct current (DC), high voltage, and high density, with a projected market size of 99.6 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 50% from 2024 to 2030 [2][68]. - The global AI market is entering a high growth phase, with the market size expected to reach approximately $274.5 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 36% [11]. - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for data center infrastructure, with notable investments from companies like Alibaba and Tencent [17][22]. - The evolution of power supply systems in data centers is shifting from traditional UPS to more efficient HVDC systems, which are expected to dominate the market in the coming years [34][49]. Summary by Sections AIDC Capital Expenditure Growth - Global AIDC capital expenditure is experiencing high growth, with CSPs increasing investments in data centers, leading to a projected total installed capacity of over 100 GW by 2025 [2][18]. - The capital expenditure from domestic CSPs is expected to see explosive growth, with Alibaba's capital expenditure forecasted to increase by 239% in 2024 [17][22]. Power Supply System Evolution - The AIDC is rapidly evolving towards direct current and high voltage systems, with a significant focus on improving power supply efficiency and reducing system costs [34][49]. - The report highlights the transition from traditional UPS systems to HVDC systems, which are expected to enhance energy efficiency and reduce operational costs [49][52]. Market Opportunities - The report identifies new market opportunities in auxiliary power sources such as BBU and supercapacitors, which are becoming standard in AI server configurations [2][4]. - The global server power supply market is projected to reach 147 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 42% from 2024 to 2030 [2][68]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for server power supplies is characterized by high barriers to entry, with established players like Delta Electronics and Lite-On Technology dominating the market [81]. - The report emphasizes the importance of customer relationships and technological capabilities as key competitive advantages in the server power supply sector [84][85].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the data center power supply industry, particularly focusing on the transition from AC to DC architectures, highlighting the potential for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share [4][9]. Core Insights - The trend of increasing power density in data centers is driving the upgrade of power supply architectures from AC to DC, with significant penetration expected for DC systems due to their efficiency, lower failure rates, and space-saving advantages [4][8]. - Domestic manufacturers are expected to benefit from their leading R&D capabilities and delivery strengths, enhancing their investment value in related power supply sectors [4][9]. - The shift towards DC power supply is anticipated to stimulate demand growth in supporting sectors such as energy storage, relays, and low-voltage electrical equipment [4][9]. Summary by Sections Market Space - The demand for AI data centers is driving the power per cabinet to rise to between 20-100 kW, necessitating a more compact and higher voltage power supply system. The global data center development scale is projected to grow from 11 GW in 2024 to 35-40 GW by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 35% [8][60]. - If the penetration rate of HVDC in China increases from 15% to 40% and from 0% to 45% overseas, the global HVDC market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 161.86% [66]. Industry Chain - The demand for HVDC and other DC power sources is highly elastic, with domestic manufacturers poised to increase their market share due to their advanced R&D and delivery capabilities. The report emphasizes the importance of capturing incremental opportunities in the industry [9][70]. - The traditional UPS market is relatively stable, with the top five domestic manufacturers holding over 65% market share, while the HVDC and SST markets are still in their infancy, presenting opportunities for early movers [71][73]. Data Center Power Supply - The report notes a high concentration of cloud service providers in the data center power supply market, with domestic manufacturers expected to gain market share. The traditional UPS market is dominated by a few key players, while the HVDC market is still developing [71][78]. - The report highlights that the efficiency of HVDC systems is superior to that of traditional UPS systems, with a single HVDC system achieving over 94% efficiency [22][47].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Hewei Electric (禾望电气) [1][7]. Core Insights - Hewei Electric is positioned as a power electronics platform company with a strong moat, expected to leverage the AI wave to expand into new fields, particularly in AI data center (AIDC) power supply solutions [4][13]. - The company has a solid growth trajectory in its core businesses of new energy control and transmission, with significant opportunities in the rapidly growing AIDC market [7][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Hewei Electric focuses on new energy control and transmission, with its core business covering wind power converters, photovoltaic inverters, energy storage systems, and hydrogen production systems [4][13]. - The company has expanded its product offerings since its establishment in 2007, leveraging its expertise in high-power technology [4][13]. 2. AIDC Market Potential - The demand for AIDC is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of approximately 40% from 2023 to 2028 [29]. - By 2025, the global AIDC market is anticipated to account for 79% of new data center installations, with a substantial increase in power consumption [29][30]. 3. Product Development and Market Position - Hewei Electric is a leader in wind power converters, with a comprehensive product range covering 750kW to 30MW power segments, and is expected to see high growth in sales [4][5]. - The company is also well-positioned in the photovoltaic and energy storage markets, maintaining a strong market presence and competitive advantage [4][5]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Hewei Electric are projected to reach 49.08 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 31%, and net profit expected to grow by 45% to 6.39 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory through 2027, with revenue and profit growth driven by its core businesses and new opportunities in AIDC [7][20]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the AIDC sector, noting that Hewei Electric's early mover advantage in high-power technology positions it favorably against competitors [4][5][28]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-efficiency power supply solutions in the context of rising AI computing needs [4][5][28].