点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 （王招华/方驭涛） 2025-11-23 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【电新环保】看好风电及氢氨醇板块，美国缺电寻找超跌反弹机会——电新环保行业周报20251123 1）氢氨醇作为新能源消纳和绿电非电领域应用的重要方向有望获得更多投资，氢氨醇板块当前市场预期 较低，亦可与风电板块形成共振，重点关注。2）美国缺电逻辑持续演绎，未来科技仍为主线，重点关注 海外储能、SST等板块超跌反弹的机会。3）2026年国内独立储能招标有望维持2025年的较好水平。4）锂 电方面重点关注供给变数较大的锂矿及盈利尚不支持扩产的隔膜环节的投资机会。 （殷中枢/郝骞/陈无忌/和霖/邓怡亮） 2025-11-23 您可点击今日推送内容的第3条查看 今 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - North America is facing a systemic electricity shortage driven by the expansion of AI computing power, changes in manufacturing patterns, and electrification, leading to increased electricity demand and pressure on supply [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply Dynamics - The rapid growth of AI is a major driver of increased electricity demand, with significant investments in data centers expected to continue [1][2]. - The aging power grid in North America and the retirement of old coal and gas projects are exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance, with a projected annual increase in electricity load exceeding 30GW over the next five years [2]. - The net electricity imports in the U.S. have surged by 125% year-on-year, indicating a rapidly expanding electricity gap [2]. Group 2: Impact on Electricity Prices and Industries - The tightening electricity supply has led to a 6% increase in retail electricity prices in the U.S. compared to the previous year, with potential implications for corporate electricity costs and profitability [2]. - The ongoing electricity shortage is expected to benefit various sectors in China, including machinery, electrical equipment, photovoltaic new energy, and non-ferrous metals, as demand from North America increases [4]. Group 3: Opportunities for Chinese Companies - The demand for gas turbines is expected to rise as they are seen as the optimal short-term solution for powering data centers, benefiting companies like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi [4]. - The need for upgrading the aging power grid in North America presents opportunities for Chinese electrical equipment manufacturers, with a projected supply gap of 66% for transformers in the region [5]. - The increasing demand for energy storage solutions is anticipated as a response to the high power density and fluctuating electricity needs of AI data centers, creating opportunities for Chinese companies with technological advantages [5][6]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The aluminum demand for cables in North America is expected to rise due to the accelerated construction of the power grid, which may support the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry [7]. - The transition to high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and solid-state transformers (SST) is seen as a favorable trend for companies with advanced technology and project experience in these areas [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid advancements in HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) and SST (Solid State Transformer) technologies, highlighting the increasing interest in power export and the implications of recent developments in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: SST Developments - NVIDIA has indicated that the SST penetration rate is expected to reach 15-20% by 2027, urging suppliers to accelerate technological advancements [1]. - Meta has reversed its previous stance against SST solutions, providing SST architecture parameters (3MW) to various manufacturers, with Eaton expected to deliver samples in Q1 next year and another domestic SST company in Q2 [1]. Group 2: Solid State Breakers - The progress of SST is faster than anticipated, with expectations for solid-state circuit breakers to significantly increase in value [2]. - Solid-state circuit breakers can achieve rapid fault current interruption in microseconds, minimizing the impact on the power grid and enhancing safety and reliability [6][7]. - When solid-state breaker technology matures and costs decrease, it will become an ideal choice for DC power system protection, offering high-speed response, long electrical lifespan, and reduced maintenance costs [7]. Group 3: Comparison of DC Protection Devices - A comparison of different types of DC protection devices shows that solid-state breakers outperform traditional mechanical breakers in terms of speed, reliability, and maintenance [6]. - Solid-state breakers do not produce electric arcs, which further reduces the risk of damage to power sources and loads [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The article notes the ongoing trend of power export, particularly in the context of the US power system and the recent trade framework established between China and the US [1]. - The acquisition of Power Distribution by Eaton and the introduction of liquid cooling solutions for SST are also highlighted as significant industry movements [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing concern over the electricity shortage in the United States, highlighting the growing demand for expert consultations and the positive market performance in the related sectors [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Electricity Shortage in the U.S. - The topic of electricity shortage in the U.S. has gained significant attention, with major North American companies discussing the issue [2]. - There is a noticeable increase in expert consultation requests related to the electricity sector, indicating heightened interest from institutions and brokerages [4]. - The related market sectors have shown strong performance, indicating a favorable investment climate [5]. Group 2: HVDC/SST Developments - Eaton's solid-state transformer (SST) products are currently in a small-scale pilot testing phase, with three units supplied to Century Interconnect for testing [6]. - The product specifications are customized to meet local grid standards, such as the 13.8 kV for the U.S. market compared to 10 kV in China [6]. - Future research and development will focus on expanding product lines to accommodate various voltage specifications and enhancing functionalities to integrate renewable energy [7]. Group 3: Market Projections and Financial Estimates - A detailed financial projection for the HVDC and SST market indicates a potential market space of 735 billion yuan for HVDC and 504 billion yuan for SST in North America [10]. - The estimated revenue from HVDC contract manufacturing is projected to be around 36.75 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 10% [10]. - The overall market valuation for SST and SOFC components is estimated at 239.4 billion yuan, excluding certain option-based businesses [10]. Group 4: Cost Breakdown for Data Center Operations - The cost of establishing 1 GW of computing power in data centers is estimated to be between 35 billion to 60 billion USD, with a detailed breakdown provided in a Bernstein report [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company is actively seizing opportunities in artificial intelligence and expanding its overseas market presence, with a focus on three main areas: intelligent computing centers, smart energy solutions, and clean energy [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.706 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 344 million yuan, up 44.71% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.973 billion yuan, representing an 18.65% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 711.41% [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses for the first three quarters reached 348 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 102.94% [4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the integration of three key areas: AI, liquid cooling, and energy solutions, to create a robust platform for heterogeneous computing power [2]. - The company is also developing products tailored for overseas markets and has established deep collaborations with leading domestic companies [4]. Product Development - The company has launched a full lifecycle service for liquid cooling data centers and has developed high-density liquid cooling products to address the energy consumption challenges of high-performance GPUs [3]. - The company is preparing for the transition to 800V high voltage direct current (HVDC) as a mainstream power supply solution for future AI data centers [4]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 556 million yuan, 913 million yuan, and 1.270 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 50, 30, and 22 times [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively advancing its AIDC division's product development and market expansion, focusing on core products such as HVDC and SST [1] Group 1: Product Development - The product development and research are progressing smoothly and will follow the company's planned pace [1] - The company emphasizes that specific progress will be disclosed through official channels [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - As the AIDC business gradually develops, significant changes and evolution within the related industry chain are underway [1] - The company aims to leverage its accumulated experience in relevant fields and deepen communication with industry partners to seize development opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of 46.80 RMB [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported strong revenue and profit performance in Q3 2025, achieving revenue of 1.446 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million RMB, up 38.4% year-on-year and 32.0% quarter-on-quarter [1][4]. - The growth in revenue and profitability is expected to be driven by the company's overseas data center and energy storage businesses, with significant contributions anticipated from major internet clients starting in 2026 [1][4]. - The energy storage business has shown robust growth, with revenues of approximately 600 million RMB for the first nine months of 2025, surpassing the total revenue for the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Data Center Business - The company achieved approximately 2.2 billion RMB in revenue from its data center business in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% and an improvement in gross margin by about 2 percentage points [11]. - Key partnerships have been established with major internet clients such as Kuaishou, ByteDance, and JD.com, which are expected to enhance revenue starting in 2026 [11][2]. - The overseas market has become a primary growth driver, with revenue from international data centers surpassing domestic revenue in Q3 2025 [11]. Energy Storage Business - The energy storage segment is primarily focused on commercial and household storage, utilizing a dual model of proprietary branding and OEM for major clients [3]. - The gross margin for the energy storage business improved by approximately 3 percentage points year-on-year due to increased shipments to overseas clients [3]. - The company has established a strong market position in high-demand regions such as Europe, North America, Africa, and the Middle East, which is expected to further enhance profitability [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been revised upward for 2025-2027 to 650 million, 910 million, and 1.1 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting increases of 5.4%, 12.6%, and 8.8% from previous estimates [4]. - The company is assigned a 30x PE valuation for 2026, with a target price of 46.80 RMB, indicating a positive outlook based on anticipated growth in data center and energy storage businesses [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that traditional overseas power supply manufacturers are facing risks of reshaping their market landscape due to the large-scale application of 800Vdc technology, prompting them to seek collaboration or outsourcing with Chinese companies [1] - Chinese companies possess key advantages such as accumulated power electronics technology, rapid response capabilities, and high-quality engineering teams, which may allow them to participate as Tier 1 suppliers in the upgrade process and potentially achieve excellent returns [1] Group 2 - The current power supply system for data centers relies on UPS as the primary power source, with electricity first entering through the utility grid and being transformed through various voltage levels before reaching the cabinets [1] - According to NVIDIA's white paper, the second-generation solution will introduce new HVDC systems while retaining UPS as a transitional element, expected to be implemented in NVL144 cabinets by the second half of 2026 [2] - The third generation will eliminate UPS and incorporate self-generation facilities and electrochemical storage to handle power fluctuations from AI loads, with applications anticipated in NVL576 cabinets by the second half of 2027 [2] - The fourth generation aims to further integrate HVDC, transformers, and distribution systems, promoting the use of medium-voltage rectifiers and solid-state transformers, with structural innovations expected to be commercially available by 2028 and technological breakthroughs by 2029-2030 [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying valuable research reports and understanding when to utilize them to avoid missing investment opportunities [1] - It highlights a core segment of AI computing power that accounts for 20% of total investment, which is currently experiencing a surge in North American orders, with two companies receiving significant attention from institutions [1] - Major players like Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Google are actively engaging in the burgeoning SST market, which is projected to explode, with four key companies expected to benefit from this growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector, aiming to develop new products and solutions to meet emerging demands in the energy supply field [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company established the AIDC division in June 2025 to enhance its product offerings and address new market needs [1] - The company plans to leverage its existing technology to develop new power supply products such as HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) and SST (Solid State Transformer) [1] - The company aims to accelerate product development through in-depth market research and active communication with downstream customers [1] Group 2: Long-term Vision - The company aspires to become a comprehensive energy solution provider for AIDC, focusing on continuous innovation in product efficiency, stability, and intelligence [1] - The company intends to expand its business scope to provide overall energy solutions for data centers and intelligent computing centers [1] - The company hopes to enhance its brand influence and market competitiveness in the AIDC sector [1]