东方电气（600875）(01072)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.57%，报26.56港元，成交额7226.53万港元。 据了解，东方电气燃气轮机业务采用"合资技术沉淀+自研产品突破"双轨推进，已形成从15MW到 500MW的完整产品矩阵。公司海外业务快速增长，2025年G50实现F级重型燃机整机出口"零的突破"， 是国内燃气轮机领域的核心龙头。公司中东、中亚等新兴市场持续突破，2025年签约中东重点项目。 消息面上，华西证券（002926）研报指出，在全球AIDC快速发展&电网建设投资持续增长的驱动下， 电力设备需求迎来景气周期。该行认为，掌握优质渠道资源、技术实力领先、积极布局相关产能的企业 有望充分受益，持续看好海外业务有望取得突破、海外业务毛利率高的出海企业，重点关注变压器 &SST、燃气轮机、AI电源、储能产业链等核心环节相关标的。 ...

（记者 张喜威） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：SST即将爆发，如同公司过去抓住青藏高原铁路机遇一 样，具有重大产业机遇的现实意义。包括麦格米特、金盘科技、四方股份在内的上市公司全力冲刺，抢 占人工智能中心供电环节，公司未来会加码、加力、加油争抢机遇吗？ 特锐德（300001.SZ）1月7日在投资者互动平台表示，SST 作为 AI 算力中心 800V HVDC 架构核心核心 环节，是堪比青藏铁路的战略性产业机遇，公司凭借 20 余年高压电力系统 + 10 余年电力电子技术积 淀，已构建110kV/220kV 高压接入 + SST 高低压一体化解决方案能力。公司依托高压与电力电子跨界融 合的差异化优势，在 SST 赛道坚定走超前技术、方案领先之路。未来也将持续以实干抢抓算力能源变 革机遇，力争在 SST 细分领域再创行业标杆！ ...

Group 1 - The company signed a contract worth approximately $0.99 billion (around 6.96 billion RMB) with overseas client F for a data center project, indicating a recovery in order placement rhythm due to improved international relations [1] - The company expects to secure around 2 billion RMB in new overseas orders from January to October, with approximately 700 million RMB coming from AIDC downstream orders, projecting over 1.4 billion RMB in new AIDC overseas orders for the year [1] - The company has established strong partnerships with major CSP clients in overseas markets, anticipating significant growth in AIDC downstream orders by 2026 compared to this year [1] Group 2 - The North American AIDC market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on the transformer market and enhancing its product offerings, which has led to increased market presence among major CSP clients [2] - The company is planning to launch overseas prototypes of SST in Q1 2026, with expectations of significant market potential in the AIDC power supply sector, projected to exceed 100 billion RMB by 2030 [2] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 780 million RMB, 1.04 billion RMB, and 1.32 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 32%, and 27% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

证券研究报告 晨会 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月24日 华源晨会精粹 20251224 公用环保 算力革命与能源革命共振，美国缺电背景下的电力投资机遇：OpenAI 已 将其截至 2033 年算力投资规模上调至 250GW，2030 年美国最高用电负荷有望突破 1000GW（目前在 820GW 上下），需求大幅上调导致美国可能出现缺电问题。电源 侧可能通过建设气电、核电、储能、SOFC 等形式解决，同时电网建设也有望同步。 此外衍生的问题是：（1）如果美国算力投资继续上调或倾尽全力也无法满足算力需 求，行业发展将如何演化？（2）中美科技竞争背景下，算力投资对中国电力供需有 何影响。发电侧：气电、核电是主力电源，储能、SOFC 作为应急手段。我们测算 在 2030 年 1000GW 的最高预测下，考虑/不考虑既定机组退役时，美国电力缺口为 182/89GW。电网侧：电网投资上调，国内企业或迎出口机遇。电源设备：800VDC 是演化趋势，SST 或将是长期解决方案。国内篇：考虑中国 AIDC 投资与美国相当， 中性情景下 AIDC 和充电桩将拉动十五五用电量复合增长率约 1.1pct、乐观 ...

传统快速补能受限，AIDC配储具备经济性且交付快，占比有望提升。假设美国AIDC功耗从2025年 10GW提升至2028年22GW，AIDC配储需求按20%容量、4h系统测算，则北美AIDC配储需求约从2025 年9.6 GWh提升至2028年21GWh。考虑到截止25Q3美国AIDC项目规划装机容量增长45GW，未来配储 比例及配储时长提升，AIDC配储空间弹性有望提升。 北美AIDC变压器供不应求，变压器出口高景气 经济复苏以及AI高速发展，叠加新能源并网以及电网更新改造需求，AI电气设备需求旺盛。中国银河 证券测算，2024年、2027年全球AIDC装机功率约15GW、66GW，假设变压器约4亿元/GW，则2024 年、2027年AIDC全球变压器市场空间约为60亿元、264亿元，CAGR约64%。 根据伍德麦肯兹对北美年度供需估算，目前电力变压器和配电变压器的供应缺口已分别达到30%和 6%，进口产品预计占美国电力变压器供应量的80%、配电变压器供应量的50%。根据海关总署数据，中 国变压器1-11月合计出口579亿元，同比 36%，根据电能革新数据，中国变压器出口均价已从2020年的 1.2万美元/ ...

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed performance this week, with the Dow Jones index declining by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 0.48% and 0.1% respectively [3] - The fluctuations in the AI power and computing sectors were significant, driven by key events related to Oracle and OpenAI [4] Key Events Impacting AI Power and Computing - The core event causing volatility was the financing situation involving Oracle and OpenAI, particularly the news that Blue Owl Capital would not fund a $10 billion deal for Oracle's new data center [6][7] - Conversely, OpenAI reportedly secured $100 billion in funding led by a UAE sovereign fund, raising its valuation by $80 billion and alleviating concerns about Oracle's financial stability [8] AI Power Sector Analysis - Key companies in the AI power sector, Bloom Energy (B.E) and GE Vernova (GE.V), experienced declines of 6.49% and 2% respectively over the week, but rebounded significantly on Thursday and Friday, with B.E rising over 10.7% and GE.V over 2.9% [9] - The initial decline was attributed to lowered expectations for AI capital expenditures, leading to a decrease in power demand growth forecasts [9] - The recovery in the latter half of the week was driven by a reversal of negative sentiment regarding AI power sector valuations [10] AI Computing Sector Analysis - The AI computing sector showed a strong performance overall, with key stocks like Nvidia rising over 3.9%, Oracle over 6.6%, and Lumentum over 10% [10] - The initial weakness was linked to increased uncertainty regarding AI capital expenditures, which negatively impacted growth expectations for AI hardware and software [10] - The subsequent recovery was a result of a reversal in negative market sentiment, leading to improved valuation expectations for the AI computing sector [10] AI Power and Computing Export Logic - The article discusses the export logic for AI power and computing, emphasizing the importance of tracking specific data points related to each segment [11][12] - For instance, the HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) market is highlighted, with a significant supply gap of over 30% in North America, leading to strong price increases [13][14] - The demand for SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells) is also noted, with major tech companies like Meta and Google showing interest in large-scale orders [15] Industry Information - The liquid cooling market is expected to see optimistic demand growth, with significant orders anticipated from major tech firms [18][19] - The PCB market is experiencing tight supply conditions, leading to price increases, while the optical module market is facing extreme capacity constraints [19]

Core Insights - The data center industry has become a core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration in power equipment [1] - The capital expenditure (CapEx) in the data center industry is characterized by large scale, long investment return cycles, and rapid technological iteration, necessitating the incorporation of AI industry multidimensional indicators for accurate demand forecasting [1] Demand Side - Overseas capital expenditure from major companies reached $99.617 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting an 80.39% year-on-year increase and a 9.54% quarter-on-quarter rise [2] - Domestic capital expenditure showed a slowdown, with Alibaba's CapEx at 31.501 billion yuan, an 80.10% year-on-year increase but a 18.55% quarter-on-quarter decrease, while Tencent's CapEx was 12.983 billion yuan, down 24.05% year-on-year and 32.05% quarter-on-quarter [2] Supply Chain - Nvidia reported a record revenue of 362.571 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with data center products accounting for over 85% of total revenue, marking a 62.49% year-on-year increase [2] - TSMC's revenue in November 2025 reached 343.614 billion New Taiwan dollars, a 24.5% year-on-year increase, despite a 6.5% quarter-on-quarter decline [2] - The CPU price index rose to 98.20 in October 2025, while DRAM spot prices surged over 200% from $12.85 to $38.76 between October and December 2025, indicating strong server demand [2] Application Side - The number of AI models is steadily increasing, with the Token call volume on the OpenRouter platform reaching 5.78 trillion, a 6.62% decrease week-on-week [3] - The release of new models such as Grok4Fast and GPT-5nano led to a more than 50% price drop for Tokens scoring over 40 on the ArtificialAnalysis intelligence index in Q3 2025 [3] Investment Recommendations - The construction of AI data centers is expected to drive demand for SST, with an estimated 14 GW of new data center installations globally in 2024, maintaining high growth rates [3] - Recommended stocks include Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), with additional attention to Kehua Data (002335.SZ), Keda Electronics (002518.SZ), Kelu Electronics (002121.SZ), Magmi Tech (002851.SZ), Jinpan Technology (688676.SH), and Sifang Co. (601126.SH) [3]

14 December 2025 | 11:22PM HKT Equity Research CHINA INDUSTRIAL TECH: AIDC POWER EXPERT CALL TAKEAWAYS Possible demand overflow to Chinese suppliers from US power shortage and 800VDC architecture shift; Buy Kstar, Hongfa; Neutral on Sungrow On Dec 10-12, we hosted expert calls on US power transformers and AIDC electricals system. On power transformers, we read positive implications for Chinese suppliers, given the US power transformer order lead time of 3-4 years have driven utilities and data center operat ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the new energy transformer sector and is accelerating its overseas expansion while developing AIDC to create a second growth curve [1] - The company has achieved significant revenue and net profit growth, with a projected CAGR of 35% and 54% from 2020 to 2024, respectively [1] - The company is expected to return to a rapid growth trajectory by 2026, driven by overseas sales and data center business expansion [1] Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Energy and Information Industry, Actively Expanding Global Market - The company has successfully expanded its overseas customer base and is positioning itself in the data center product market [12] - The strategic focus is on energy and information sectors, with new energy products contributing significantly to revenue [15] - The company has a relatively dispersed shareholding structure, with a strong management team [18] 2. New Energy and Distribution Market Opportunities - The overseas market for new energy and distribution transformers is vast, with significant growth potential [37] - The company has made important breakthroughs in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. distribution market [58] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high demand for transformers driven by AIDC and grid upgrades [51] 3. Diversified AIDC Product Layout, Creating a Second Growth Engine - The global AIDC installed capacity is rapidly increasing, driving high demand for medium-voltage transformers [3] - The company has diversified its product offerings in the AIDC sector, achieving significant progress in both domestic and international markets [3] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.8 billion, 4.9 billion, and 7.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 49, 29, and 19 times [1] - The target price for 2026 is set at 45.8 yuan, based on a 40 times P/E ratio [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities in the U.S. power supply, particularly in the context of AI and energy demands, highlighting the "impossible triangle" of energy policy, economic growth, and AI needs [5][6]. Group 1: Energy Supply Challenges - The U.S. power grid is aging, with an average establishment time of over 40 years, leading to structural issues and a mismatch between supply and demand [5]. - The Biden administration's goal to eliminate 100GW of fossil fuel power generation by 2030 is threatened by the sudden surge in AI energy demands, creating a dilemma for energy policy [5]. - The U.S. power system lacks the capability for large-scale inter-regional energy distribution, unlike China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" [5]. Group 2: AI Power Export Opportunities - The article outlines three main directions for AI power export to North America by 2026: power sources (gas turbines, SOFC), power grid equipment (transformers, large-scale storage), and energy-saving technologies for data centers (SST) [6][19]. - The demand for gas turbines is expected to grow significantly, with an average annual demand of 80-110GW projected from 2026 to 2030, driven by the need for stable and green energy sources [8][9]. Group 3: Gas Turbine Market Dynamics - The supply side of the gas turbine market faces challenges due to complex production processes and a shortage of skilled labor, with an average training period of 1-2 years for workers [8]. - Major gas turbine manufacturers like Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries dominate the market, leading to a tight supply situation with orders extending to 2028-2029 [9][10]. Group 4: SOFC and Energy Storage - The demand for SOFC is expected to reach 1.5-2GW by 2026, with a growth rate of over 30-50% annually, driven by major tech companies' procurement needs [14]. - The large-scale storage market in North America is projected to see demand exceed 70-80GWh by 2026, supported by favorable economic returns and declining system costs [17]. Group 5: Data Center Energy Efficiency - SST technology is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption and space requirements for data centers, with a projected market space of $25-35 billion by 2027 [19]. - The SST market is expected to see a penetration rate of 15-20% by 2027, with major players including Eaton and emerging domestic manufacturers [19][20].