Summary of the 2025 Taiwan AI Forum Insights Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Event**: 2025 Taiwan AI Forum - **Date**: September 12, 2025 - **Analysts Involved**: Howard Kao, Sharon Shih, Irene Yen from Morgan Stanley Key Insights 1. **Conventional ABF Supply**: Conventional ABF (Advanced Build-up Film) is expected to remain oversupplied, particularly with the entry of new competitors [6] 2. **Advanced ABF Substrate**: Although currently oversupplied, the advanced ABF substrate market may reach a more balanced supply-demand situation by calendar year 2026-2027 [6] 3. **PCB Design Trends**: There is a noticeable trend in AI accelerator server PCB designs shifting towards HDI (High-Density Interconnect) or HDI+HLC (High Layer Count) hybrid designs [6] 4. **Rubin Ultra ABF**: The Rubin Ultra ABF is projected to double in area size compared to the original Rubin, featuring a higher layer count but lower yields, necessitating approximately double the production capacity [6] 5. **CoWoP Technology**: CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Panel) will utilize mSAP (Modified Semi-additive Process) PCB technology with line/space as small as 15µm to integrate RDL (Redistribution Layer) interposers into the SLP (System-in-Package). However, the larger area size of the platform PCB compared to the substrate may require T glass, which is currently constrained in supply [6] 6. **Fiber Cloth Shortages**: - T glass (low CTE glass cloth) is anticipated to remain in undersupply until 2027, with new capacity expected to come online from Nittobo in the second half of 2026 [6] - Level-1 low Dk (Dielectric Constant) glass cloth is currently oversupplied [6] - Level-2 low Dk glass cloth supply constraints are gradually easing [6] 7. **Operational Costs in Thailand**: The operational costs in Thailand are approximately 15% higher than in China, compounded by weaker logistical support and lower efficiency, making profitability challenging for some companies in the initial two years [6] Additional Considerations - **Industry View**: The overall view of the Greater China Technology Hardware industry is categorized as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating expectations of performance in line with the broader market [4] - **Analyst Certification**: Analysts Howard Kao and Sharon Shih certify that their views on the companies discussed are accurately expressed and that they have not received compensation for specific recommendations [11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed during the 2025 Taiwan AI Forum, highlighting the current state and future expectations of the Greater China Technology Hardware industry.