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工业富联 - 人工智能业务布局推动利润率扩张;目标价上调至 82 元人民币
2025-11-14 05:14
Summary of Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Market Cap**: US$179.54 billion - **Current Share Price**: Rmb67.99 - **Price Target**: Rmb82.00, implying a 21% upside from the current price [2][4][6] Key Financial Highlights - **9M25 Profit**: Achieved 97% of the full-year profit target for 2024, indicating strong execution and scale benefits [2] - **Revenue Growth**: - 3Q25 overall server revenue increased by 75% YoY, with expectations for further acceleration in 4Q25 [9] - CSP server revenue up 2.1x YoY in 3Q25, expected to sustain similar growth in 4Q25 [9] - CSP GPU AI server revenue increased by over 5x YoY in 3Q25, with another expected increase of over 5x in 4Q25 [9] - **Earnings Estimates**: - Raised by 4% for 2025, 21% for 2026, and 31% for 2027, reflecting enhanced processing yield and product mix [4][33] Strategic Insights - **AI Server Expansion**: - The company is expected to widen its AI data center infrastructure offerings from AI GPU-centric to AI ASIC server customers in 2026 and beyond [2] - Management aims to increase AI server assembly share towards a 40% target, which is anticipated to drive profits higher [16][17] - **Product Offerings**: - Extended offerings include various types of board assemblies for AI server rack systems, enhancing customer exposure [17] - New customer wins expected from hyperscalers, Nvidia cloud partners, and sovereign AI [5] Market Position and Valuation - **Valuation Metrics**: - New price target implies P/E ratios of 27x for 2026 and 21x for 2027, which is compelling compared to Chinese AI hardware peers [4] - Bull case price target raised from Rmb79.00 to Rmb123.00, implying a 41x P/E for 2026 [36] - Bear case price target raised from Rmb28.20 to Rmb44.00, implying a 15x P/E for 2026 [37] Upcoming Catalysts - **Tech Day**: Hon Hai, the parent company, will host its annual Tech Day on November 21, with expectations for new project announcements [5] - **4Q25 Outlook**: Anticipated top-line growth of over 15% YoY with further margin expansion [5] Risks and Considerations - **Potential Risks**: - Slower-than-expected development in AI business and lower-than-expected shipments of consumer products could impact growth [16][37] - Increased competition in manufacturing and lower-than-expected demand in 5G and data centers are also potential risks [27] Conclusion Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. is positioned for significant growth driven by its AI server offerings and strategic expansions. The company has demonstrated strong execution and is expected to benefit from favorable market conditions, although it must navigate potential risks associated with competition and demand fluctuations.