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小摩重申迈威尔(MRVL.US)“增持”评级:微软亚马逊订单已锁定至2026年,市场猜疑纯属“噪音”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 09:26
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reaffirms "Overweight" rating for Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) with a target price of $90, despite a slight dip compared to the closing price of $92 on December 8, emphasizing that customer orders remain strong despite market noise [1] Group 1: AI Chip Developments - Marvell has secured full-year orders for AWS Trainium 3XPU ASIC chips for 2026, and Microsoft's 3nm Maia AI XPU ASIC chips are on track for mass production in the second half of 2026, continuing to advance to 2027 [1] - Both companies are already working on next-generation designs using 2nm technology, indicating a deepening partnership with no signs of weakening [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth from Additional Products - Beyond main chip business, Marvell is expanding its "attachment" business with supporting chips like SmartNICs and CXL controllers, expected to generate $2 billion in annual revenue by 2028, equivalent to recreating the company's 2019 scale [2] - In the optical networking sector, Marvell is set to deliver 1.6T PAM4DSP chips to Nvidia and Google next year, with strong shipment volumes anticipated [2] - The copper wire business, featuring AEC DSP chips with 100G/200G single-channel rates, achieved a revenue target of $100 million this year, with expectations to double next year [2] Group 3: Long-term Market Positioning - Marvell aims for a potential market size of over $16 billion by 2030 in its "scale-up" network strategy, leveraging proprietary technologies to secure early positions in next-generation solutions for cloud service providers [2] - Management expresses confusion and frustration over market skepticism but remains confident in their growth trajectory through order expansion, capacity enhancement, and innovation in AI computing, networking, and storage [3] - Morgan Stanley advises investors to disregard short-term market noise, as Marvell holds a critical position in the AI custom chip and optical networking sectors [3]