Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is expected to report strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings, driven by robust trading and investment banking performances, with a consensus revenue estimate of $17.32 billion, reflecting a 6.8% year-over-year growth [2][9]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for earnings for the upcoming quarter has been revised 1.3% higher to $2.41, indicating an 8.6% improvement from the prior-year quarter [3]. - Morgan Stanley has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 24.03% [5][7]. Investment Banking (IB) Income - Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) surged in Q4 2025, contributing to increased advisory fees, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for advisory fees at $818.2 million, a 5% year-over-year rise [8]. - The IPO activity was strong, supported by moderating inflation and lower rates, with equity and fixed-income underwriting fees projected to increase by 23% year-over-year [9][10]. Trading Revenues - Trading revenues are expected to be strong due to increased client activity and market volatility, with equity trading revenues estimated at $3.44 billion (up 3.5% year-over-year) and fixed-income trading revenues at $1.95 billion (up nearly 1%) [12][13]. Net Interest Income (NII) - NII is expected to show a modest improvement despite recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the consensus estimate at $2.53 billion, indicating a 1% year-over-year decline [14][15]. Cost Management - Overall costs are anticipated to be elevated due to investments in franchises, which may limit the effectiveness of cost reduction strategies [15]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Morgan Stanley's stock has performed well compared to its peers, trading at a forward P/E of 17.63X, above the industry average of 15.35X, indicating a stretched valuation [21][22]. - The company has strengthened its position in Japan through a partnership with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, enhancing its equity research and sales capabilities [23]. Strategic Initiatives - Morgan Stanley is diversifying its revenue streams by reducing reliance on capital markets and expanding its wealth and asset management franchises through acquisitions [24][25]. - The capital markets backdrop appears constructive, supporting steady improvement in activity levels, which bodes well for future performance [26]. Risk-Reward Profile - Given the favorable market conditions and strategic initiatives, Morgan Stanley's shares are viewed as offering an attractive risk-reward profile [29].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley (MS) is expected to announce its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 15, with strong performance anticipated due to robust trading and investment banking activities [1][2][7] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MS' third-quarter revenues is $16.25 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 5.6% [2] - The earnings estimate for the upcoming quarter has been revised 2% higher to $2.07, reflecting a 10.1% improvement from the same quarter last year [3][4] Investment Banking Performance - Global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have rebounded significantly in Q3 2025, contributing positively to Morgan Stanley's advisory fees, which are estimated at $589 million, a 7.9% year-over-year increase [6][8] - The consensus estimate for investment banking (IB) income is $1.51 billion, suggesting a 3.4% year-over-year rise [10][11] Trading Revenues - Trading revenues are expected to be strong, driven by increased client activity and market volatility, with equity trading revenues estimated at $3.22 billion (5.7% increase) and fixed-income trading revenues at $2.05 billion (2.5% increase) [12][13] Net Interest Income (NII) - The consensus estimate for net interest revenues is $2.34 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 6.4%, supported by stable funding costs and loan growth [15] Expenses and Cost Management - Total non-interest expenses are anticipated to be $11.4 billion, reflecting a 2.7% year-over-year increase, as the company continues to invest in its franchises [16] Earnings Surprise History - Morgan Stanley has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 20.3% [4] Stock Performance - In Q3, Morgan Stanley's stock performance was strong, performing better than peers like JPMorgan and in line with Goldman Sachs [19]

Core Insights - Evercore Inc. (EVR) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 30, 2025, with a consensus estimate for sales at $713 million, reflecting a 2.5% year-over-year increase [1] - The earnings consensus estimate remains unchanged at $1.78 per share, indicating a 1.7% decline from the prior-year quarter [2] - Evercore has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 37.35% [2] Investment Banking & Equities - Global mergers and acquisitions activity in Q2 2025 was stronger than anticipated, although advisory fees are expected to decline by 1.9% year-over-year to $557.3 million [3][4] - The IPO market saw a significant rebound, leading to an expected 10% increase in underwriting fees to $34.1 million compared to the prior-year quarter [5][6] - High trading volumes due to market volatility are likely to have improved commission and related fees, with a consensus estimate of $56.92 million, suggesting a 6.9% increase year-over-year [6] Asset Management - Favorable market conditions and sustained client inflows are expected to result in a 20.9% year-over-year increase in asset management and administration fees, with a consensus estimate of $22.25 billion [7] Expenses - Company expenses are anticipated to rise in Q2 2025 due to increased employee compensation and benefits costs [7] Earnings Outlook - The model indicates a high probability of Evercore beating estimates, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [8][9] - Key factors contributing to potential earnings growth include increased AUM, a rebound in IPOs, and strong trading volumes, although higher compensation expenses may pressure profitability [8]