Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The economic return for the quarter was negative 4.8%, consisting of a $0.34 dividend per common share and a $0.76 decline in book value per common share [7] - The debt to equity ratio decreased from 7.1x at the end of March to 6.5x at the end of June, indicating a more defensive posture due to elevated near-term uncertainty [7] - As of July 18, 2025, the estimated book value per common share is between $7.99 and $8.31, reflecting a slight recovery in performance [8][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency RMBS portfolio decreased by 15% quarter over quarter as the company managed risk amid trade policy uncertainty [18] - The allocation to Agency CMBS increased from 15% at the end of Q1 to just over 17% as of June 30, 2025, due to the decline in the Agency RMBS portfolio [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Interest rates declined across the front end of the Treasury yield curve during Q2, while long-term rates increased, reflecting expectations for accommodative policy from the FOMC [6][11] - The two-year Treasury yield declined by 16 basis points, while the thirty-year yield increased by 20 basis points, leading to the steepest two-thirty spread in nearly 3.5 years [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a cautious near-term outlook but is optimistic about the long-term demand for Agency mortgages due to attractive valuations and stabilization in interest rate volatility [8][25] - The focus remains on specified pools with predictable prepayment behavior, particularly in lower loan balance collateral [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that financial conditions were volatile in Q2 but ended modestly accommodative, with expectations for two rate cuts by year-end and additional cuts in 2026 [5][25] - The company believes that further easing of monetary policy will lead to a steeper yield curve and a decline in interest rate volatility, supporting long-term demand for agency mortgages [25] Other Important Information - The company’s liquidity position is strong, providing a cushion for potential market stress while allowing for capital deployment as the investment environment improves [25] - The financing market for Agency CMBS remains robust, with no concerns about deterioration during a widening event [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view the relative risk versus reward for high coupon RMBS? - The company believes that spreads reflect the risk accurately and has reduced exposure to higher coupon RMBS due to their sensitivity to interest rate volatility [29][30] Question: What is the company's comfort level on leverage? - The company is comfortable with its current leverage, which is lower than in Q1, and does not feel the need to increase leverage to meet return goals [33][34] Question: What is the outlook for swap spreads and the mix of hedges? - The company anticipates that swap spreads will widen, which would be beneficial, and is currently at maximum allocation to interest rate swaps [37][38] Question: What are the views on core earnings and dividends? - The company expects ROEs to remain attractive, supporting the current dividend without significant changes in the near term [41][45] Question: How does the company feel about CMBS spreads when the Fed cuts rates? - The company is comfortable with the financing market for Agency CMBS and expects spreads to tighten as the Fed cuts rates [60][62]

Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. July 25, 2025 John Anzalone Kevin Collins Mark Gregson David Lyle Brian Norris Chief Executive Officer President Chief Financial Officer Chief Operating Officer Chief Investment Officer Cautionary Notice Regarding Forward-Looking Statements 2 Q2 2025 Results | Financial Results | | | | | Investment Allocation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Q2 25 | Q1 25 | | | | | Net income (loss) per common share | ($0.40) | $0.26 | | | | | Earnin ...

Core Viewpoint - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported a challenging second quarter in 2025, with a significant economic return of (4.8)%, driven by market volatility and a decline in book value per share, despite maintaining a consistent dividend payout. Financial Performance - The company experienced a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $26.6 million, translating to a loss per share of $0.40, compared to a net income of $16.3 million and earnings per share of $0.26 in Q1 2025 [10][11]. - Total interest income decreased to $70.6 million from $73.8 million in Q1 2025, while total interest expense also fell to $52.9 million from $55.0 million, resulting in a net interest income of $17.7 million, down from $18.8 million [9][10]. - The average earning assets at amortized cost decreased to $5,078.9 million from $5,422.6 million, and average borrowings also declined to $4,577.6 million from $4,930.2 million [9]. Portfolio and Valuation - As of June 30, 2025, the company’s investment portfolio was valued at $5.2 billion, comprising $4.3 billion in Agency RMBS and $0.9 billion in Agency CMBS, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.5x, down from 7.1x at the end of Q1 2025 [3][10]. - The estimated book value per common share as of July 18, 2025, is projected to be between $7.99 and $8.31, reflecting a cautious near-term outlook for Agency RMBS but a favorable long-term outlook due to expected investor demand [4][10]. Dividends and Capital Activities - The company declared a common stock dividend of $0.34 per share, consistent with the previous quarter, to be paid on July 25, 2025 [22]. - During the quarter, the company sold 282,750 shares of common stock for net cash proceeds of $2.2 million and repurchased 96,803 shares of Series C Preferred Stock for $2.3 million [23][24]. Economic Return and Non-GAAP Measures - The economic return for the quarter was calculated as the change in book value per common share of ($0.76) plus dividends declared of $0.34, resulting in an economic return of (4.8)%, compared to a positive return of 2.6% in Q1 2025 [6][10]. - Earnings available for distribution per common share decreased to $0.58 from $0.64 in Q1 2025, indicating a decline in the company’s ability to generate income for distribution [10][43].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q2 GAAP net loss related to common stockholders was $78.6 million, or $0.94 per common share [4] - Net interest income was $33.1 million, while distributable earnings available to common stockholders were $64.9 million, or $0.77 per common share [4] - The quarter ending book value was $16.9 per common share, with an estimated book value of $16.81 as of July 21 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR raised approximately $104.6 million of capital by issuing about 6.3 million shares of common stock through an at-the-market offering program during Q2 [4] - Since June 30, an additional $58.8 million was raised by issuing approximately 3.5 million shares [5] - Monthly common stock dividends were paid at $0.24 per share, totaling $0.72 for the quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was near 6.75% through late June and early July, dampening refinancing activity [10] - MBS to SOFR spreads widened by approximately 10 basis points quarter over quarter, remaining historically cheap [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR's strategy focuses on growing and deploying capital thoughtfully during spread dislocations while maintaining robust liquidity and dynamically adjusting hedges for disciplined risk management [17] - The company is optimistic about structural demand for MBS improving later in the year due to evolving regulatory clarity and a potential resumption of Fed easing policy [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macro landscape is influenced by U.S. fiscal sustainability, Fed independence, and trade dynamics, which are expected to weigh on the market for some time [8] - The company believes that a resumption of the Fed cutting cycle this year could reignite liquidity flow into agency MBS [9] Other Important Information - ARMOUR's estimated net portfolio duration is closely managed at 0.46 years, with implied leverage at eight turns [12] - The MBS portfolio remains concentrated in production MBS with ROEs in the 18% to 20% range [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Managing spread duration risk during volatility - Management expressed comfort with current leverage levels and noted that spreads remain historically attractive, indicating a potential for modestly increasing leverage [20][21] Question: Allocation to higher coupons and best value in the coupon stack - Management remains favorable towards 5.56 coupons, which are currently modeling the highest ROE, while the allocation to higher coupons has declined due to volatility [25][26] Question: Role of long treasury position within the portfolio - The five-year treasury position is used as part of the hedging strategy and as a proxy for Agency CMBS positions, allowing for tactical adjustments based on spread conditions [28][29] Question: Total expenses after fees waived - Management indicated that the higher expenses were due to increased professional fees and do not expect the same run rate going forward [33] Question: Balancing total return versus carry in the hedge portfolio - Management stated that they are positioned for a bullish steepener and are dynamically adjusting hedges based on macroeconomic views [37][38] Question: Expectations for leverage increase - Management noted that they are comfortable modestly increasing leverage given stable liquidity conditions and attractive spreads, while remaining cautious about making large bets [48][52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market capitalization as of June 30 is over $1,500,000,000, representing nearly 50% growth since June 2024 [8] - Net interest income continues to trend upwards as new investments with attractive yields are added to the portfolio [10] - The portfolio has grown to $14,000,000,000, which is 25% larger since the end of the first quarter and over 50% larger than the same time last year [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company raised $560,000,000 of new capital this year, allowing it to continue raising capital at a premium to book value [11] - The portfolio's liquidity at quarter end was $891,000,000, or 55% of total equity, indicating a strong liquidity position [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continue to offer attractive returns, with ROEs on newly acquired positions ranging from the mid-teens to low 20% [19] - Mortgages remain extremely cheap relative to corporate bonds, with a mixed technical picture in the medium term affecting spread tightening [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on raising capital, deploying it into historically cheap investments, and managing its portfolio carefully through volatile periods [7] - A strategic increase in leverage from 7.4% to 8.3% was executed as the policy environment became more supportive [17] - The company is building a world-class operating platform by bringing several functions in-house to achieve scale and retain institutional knowledge [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of a proactive approach to navigating market volatility and uncertainty [16] - The current environment is viewed as highly favorable for long-term capital deployment, with wide agency MBS spreads allowing for historic returns [23] - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning to capitalize on market dynamics and generate strong risk-adjusted returns [23] Other Important Information - The company has appointed Michael Angelo as the chief legal officer and corporate secretary, bringing relevant experience from various financial institutions [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the leverage range you're targeting? - Management indicated that leverage has been flexed down when the risk environment does not warrant incremental risk, and they are currently at a level that reflects a return to normal [29][30] Question: What are the conditions that might require other investors to be more active in the mortgage-backed space? - Management noted that banks would likely return when they see actual Fed rate cuts, while money managers have been overweight mortgages relative to corporates [40][41] Question: What are your thoughts on swap spreads and their future? - Management stated that current swap spreads are attractive, providing a large margin of safety, and they expect to continue generating strong returns despite potential fluctuations [46][48] Question: How do you view the coupon allocation between pools versus TBAs? - Management explained that they are working into a larger pool position, which offers more certainty in cash flows and is expected to be as attractive as thirty-year RMBS [62][63] Question: Can you provide an overview of the returns on Agency CMBS relative to RMBS? - Management highlighted that Agency CMBS offers a stable economic return profile and is being considered for its compelling return potential in the current market [60][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market capitalization as of June 30 is over $1.5 billion, representing nearly 50% growth since June 2024 [8] - Net interest income continues to trend upwards as new investments with attractive yields are added to the portfolio [10] - The portfolio has grown to $14 billion, a 25% increase since the end of the first quarter and over 50% larger than the same time last year [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company raised $560 million of new capital this year, allowing it to continue raising capital at a premium to book value [11] - The investment portfolio grew by over $3 billion in the quarter, reflecting a strategic increase in leverage from 7.4% to 8.3% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continue to offer attractive liquidity, credit quality, and return potential, with ROEs on newly acquired positions ranging from the mid-teens to low 20% [18] - Mortgage spreads remain wide, and the net supply of Agency RMBS is low by historical standards, creating a medium-term headwind for spread tightening [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on raising capital, deploying it into historically cheap investments, and managing its portfolio through volatile periods [7] - A long-term strategy to build a world-class operating platform includes bringing several functions in-house to enhance scale and organizational resilience [13] - The company aims to be the manager of choice for the agency mortgage market, leveraging its position as a significant player in the mortgage REIT community [42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current environment as highly favorable for long-term capital deployment, with wide agency MBS spreads supported by a technical backdrop [22] - The company is well-prepared to capitalize on market dynamics and generate strong risk-adjusted returns despite potential volatility [22] Other Important Information - The company has appointed Michael Angelo as the chief legal officer and corporate secretary, bringing relevant experience from various financial institutions [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the leverage range you're targeting? - Management indicated that leverage has been flexed down when the risk environment does not warrant incremental risk, and they are currently at a level that reflects a return to normal [29][30] Question: What conditions might require other investors to be more active in the mortgage-backed space? - Management noted that banks would likely return when they see actual Fed rate cuts, while money managers have been active due to attractive mortgage valuations relative to corporates [38][40] Question: What is the current thinking behind the coupon allocation between pools versus TBAs? - Management explained that they are favoring a larger pool position due to the stable economic return profile and the ability to hedge effectively with interest rate swaps [56][62] Question: Any thoughts on adding longer duration as you go down in coupon on the hedge side? - Management confirmed that their hedges remain focused on the longer part of the curve, targeting a duration that is generally flat with the overall portfolio [72][74] Question: Any one-time items in the G&A expense line item? - Management indicated that the first half of the year tends to be higher due to annual meetings and compensation increases, but they expect expenses to trend down in the latter half of the year [76]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a neutral stance on basis exposure due to weak near-term demand outlook and macro uncertainties [36]. Core Insights - The demand for conventional MBS is muted, with overseas investors likely holding a similar amount of conventionals and Ginnies, contrary to common assumptions [3][25]. - CMO issuance has significantly increased, representing approximately 34% of MBS issuance year-to-date compared to just 9% in 2020-2021, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9][18]. - The GSEs may expand their investment portfolios, which could bridge the gap until bank demand returns, potentially tightening mortgage basis [30][36]. Market Recap - Rates have rallied sharply due to weak inflation and jobless claims, with CPI and PPI coming in below expectations [10]. - Mortgage spreads have not tightened consistently due to opportunistic buying from marginal buyers, particularly overseas investors [21]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that overseas investors have been quieter this year, impacting the demand side of the equation [21]. - Servicing transfer volumes have decreased, but in-the-money loans tend to have faster speeds post-transfer [9]. - The GSEs' retained portfolios have a significant gap compared to regulatory caps, which could lead to increased investment in mortgages if the GSEs focus on generating earnings [30][31]. Investor Composition - The estimated composition of conventional MBS holders includes 26% Fed, 33% US Banks, 10% Overseas, 27% Money Managers, 1% GSEs, and 3% REITs [27]. - For Ginnie MBS, the composition is 17% Fed, 37% US Banks, 31% Overseas, and 15% Money Managers [29]. CMO Issuance Trends - CMO issuance has averaged $32 billion per month this year, driven by demand for floaters as investors seek to minimize duration risk [18]. - The report notes that CMO issuance levels have decoupled from overall MBS issuance, which remains muted [21]. Regulatory Considerations - Potential changes to LLPAs could tighten the credit box for existing low-credit borrowers, benefiting the prepayment profile of credit-impaired stores [44].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a positive economic return of 2.6% for the quarter, consisting of a $0.34 dividend and a modest $0.11 decline in book value to $8.81 [9][10] - The estimated book value per common share as of April 30 is between $7.74 and $8.06, reflecting a decline in April due to market volatility [10][26] - The leverage ratio was reduced from 7.1x to the mid-6s, indicating a cautious approach in response to market conditions [24][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency RMBS portfolio increased by 9.5% quarter over quarter, with investments focused on higher coupon securities [19] - The company rotated its allocations from lower coupons to higher coupons, capitalizing on attractive valuations [20] - Agency CMBS exposure remained at approximately 15% of the total investment portfolio, with new purchases yielding low double-digit ROEs [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Treasury yields declined by 20 to 40 basis points across the yield curve during the first quarter, driven by concerns over economic growth [12][13] - The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in deeper cuts, with expectations for the target rate to be reduced three to four times in 2025 [14] - Agency mortgages underperformed treasuries in April due to increased interest rate volatility and market sell-offs [9][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on higher coupon Agency RMBS, anticipating improved demand from banks and overseas investors as interest rate volatility declines [20][26] - The strategy includes increasing allocations to specified pools with predictable prepayment characteristics, particularly those with low credit score borrowers [20] - The company is cautious on agency mortgages in the near term but maintains a favorable long-term outlook due to expected improvements in investor demand [10][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted tightening financial conditions and increased uncertainty regarding monetary and fiscal policies, impacting market sentiment [6][10] - The outlook for the second half of the year is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for improved demand for Agency RMBS as the economic environment stabilizes [16][26] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining liquidity and reducing leverage to navigate current market volatility [24][26] Other Important Information - The company has been disciplined in adding exposure to Agency CMBS, focusing on relative value and risk diversification [21] - The funding market for assets has remained stable, with repo spreads consistent and haircuts unchanged [15] - The company has sold remaining credit investments, focusing entirely on agency assets [65] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the decision to take down leverage? - The company reduced leverage by about 0.5 turns due to increased uncertainty regarding monetary, fiscal, and trade policy, which could impact mortgage demand [29][30] Question: What are the current returns on an incremental basis? - Levered ROEs are in the low 20s on higher coupons, indicating attractive spreads [32] Question: Can you comment on changes to the hedge portfolio in April? - The hedge ratio was increased due to uncertainty about near-term monetary policy, maintaining a mix of swaps and treasuries [35][36] Question: How does the smaller portfolio size impact the dividend level? - The company is comfortably covering the dividend despite the portfolio size reduction, with supportive ROEs from reinvestments [38] Question: How do current opportunities in agency compare to previous peaks? - The opportunity in mortgages is attractive, but there is caution regarding potential inflation and its impact on monetary policy adjustments [41][42] Question: What is the outlook for forward rates and the hedge portfolio? - There is uncertainty about future cuts, with a conservative approach to managing the hedge portfolio and leverage [50][52] Question: Are there opportunities in commercial credit? - The company has been hesitant to add credit exposure and has sold remaining credit investments, focusing solely on agency assets [64][65]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a positive economic return of 2.6% for the quarter, consisting of a $0.34 dividend and a modest $0.11 decline in book value to $8.81 [7][22] - The estimated book value per common share as of April 30 is between $7.74 and $8.06, reflecting a decline in April due to market volatility [8][21] - The leverage ratio was reduced from 7.1x to the mid-6s during the quarter, indicating a cautious approach in response to market conditions [21][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency RMBS portfolio increased by 9.5% quarter over quarter, with investments focused on higher coupon securities [17] - The company rotated its allocations from lower coupons to higher coupons, capitalizing on attractive valuations [18] - Agency CMBS exposure remained at approximately 15% of the total investment portfolio, with new purchases yielding low double-digit ROEs [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Treasury yields declined by 20 to 40 basis points across the yield curve during the first quarter, driven by concerns over economic growth [10][11] - The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in deeper cuts, with expectations for the target rate to be reduced three to four times in 2025 [12] - Agency mortgages underperformed treasuries in April due to increased interest rate volatility and market sell-offs [21][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on higher coupon Agency RMBS, anticipating improved demand as interest rate volatility declines [18][23] - The strategy includes increasing allocations to specified pools with predictable prepayment characteristics, particularly in a slowing economic environment [18] - The company is cautious about agency mortgages in the near term but maintains a favorable long-term outlook due to expected improvements in investor demand [8][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about tightening financial conditions and the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on economic growth [5][6] - The outlook remains cautious due to elevated interest rate volatility and policy uncertainty, but there is optimism for a steeper yield curve and improved demand in the long term [23] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining liquidity to navigate potential market stress while capitalizing on investment opportunities as conditions improve [23] Other Important Information - The company noted that prepayment speeds remained low due to limited purchase and refinancing activity, but a decline in mortgage rates is expected to increase prepayment speeds in the coming months [6][7] - The funding market for the company's assets has been stable, with repo spreads remaining attractive [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on leverage management during volatile periods - Management indicated that leverage was reduced by about 0.5 turns in April due to increased uncertainty regarding monetary and fiscal policy [26][28] Question: Comments on returns and spreads - Management noted that levered ROEs are in the low 20s on higher coupons, indicating attractive spreads [30] Question: Changes to the hedge portfolio - The hedge ratio was increased in response to uncertainty about near-term monetary policy, maintaining a mix of swaps and treasuries [34] Question: Impact of portfolio size on dividend levels - Management confirmed that the recent dividend reduction is still comfortably covered by current earnings [36] Question: Opportunity set in agency compared to previous peaks - Management expressed that the current opportunity in mortgages is attractive, but there is caution due to potential inflation and its impact on monetary policy [40][41] Question: Relative value of loan balance pools - Management discussed the rotation from low loan balance pools to more credit-constrained pools, driven by economic uncertainty and pricing dynamics [42][44] Question: Forward rate outlook and hedge portfolio development - Management emphasized a conservative approach to hedging and leverage, given the uncertainty in interest rate cuts [50][52] Question: Opportunities in commercial credit - Management stated that they are currently not looking to add credit exposure and have sold remaining credit investments, focusing solely on agency assets [61][62]

Financial Performance (Q1 2025) - Net income per common share was $0.26, a recovery from the $(0.09) loss in Q4 2024[8] - Earnings available for distribution per common share increased to $0.64 from $0.53 in the previous quarter[8] - The company declared a common stock dividend of $0.34 per share, down from $0.40 in Q4 2024[8] - Book value per common share slightly decreased to $8.81 from $8.92[8] - Economic return was 2.6%, compared to (0.5)% in the prior quarter[8] - The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 7.1x from 6.7x at the end of the previous quarter[8] Portfolio Allocation and Activity - Agency RMBS represented 83.7% of the investment allocation[8] - Agency CMBS accounted for 15.0% of the investment allocation[8] - Non-Agency RMBS made up 0.1% of the investment allocation, totaling $5.9 billion[8] - Agency CMOs comprised 1.2% of the investment allocation[8] - The company issued $36.0 million of common stock under the at-the-market program[10] - The company repurchased Series C Preferred Stock with a carrying value of $2.2 million[10] - The company held $372 million of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments at quarter end[10] Portfolio Update (as of April 30) - Estimated book value per common share ranged from $7.74 to $8.06, a decrease from $8.81 at the end of Q1 2025[47] - The company reduced portfolio size by selling higher coupon Agency RMBS to lower risk in a volatile environment[47] - Estimated debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 6.4x from 7.1x at the end of Q1 2025[47] - The company held $336 million in cash and unencumbered investments[47]