Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) and Annaly Capital Management (NLY) are leading players in the mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) sector, both providing attractive long-term returns and substantial dividend yields, but differing in portfolio strategies and risk profiles [1] Capital Distribution & Dividend Yield - AGNC has a dividend yield of 15.34% with a payout ratio of 81%, but has not increased its dividend in the last five years [2] - NLY announced a cash dividend of 70 cents per share for Q1 2025, a 7.7% increase from the previous payout, with a current dividend yield of 14.37% and a payout ratio of 101% [3] - AGNC has a share repurchase plan authorizing up to $1 billion of common stock until December 31, 2026 [6] - NLY has a share repurchase program allowing for the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of common stock until December 31, 2029, but has not executed any repurchases since its announcement [7] Business Model & Portfolio Diversification - AGNC focuses exclusively on agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which exposes it to volatility, while NLY employs a diversified capital allocation strategy that includes residential credit and mortgage servicing rights, reducing rate sensitivity [8][11] - NLY's diversified strategy is expected to contribute to long-term growth and stability, allowing it to capitalize on various market cycles [12] Interest Rate Sensitivity - AGNC is significantly affected by interest rate changes due to its concentrated agency MBS exposure, leading to increased borrowing costs and profit margin pressures [13][14] - AGNC's interest expenses surged from $75 million in 2021 to $2.9 billion in 2024, reflecting its vulnerability to rate hikes [15] - NLY's diversified portfolio allows it to better withstand interest rate volatility, resulting in lower increases in borrowing costs compared to AGNC [16] Benefits From Mortgage Rates - Both AGNC and NLY are expected to benefit from declining mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropping from 6.95% to 5.80% year-over-year [19] - NLY is likely to see stronger book value appreciation due to tightening spreads in the Agency MBS market, while AGNC may benefit from increased refinancing activity [20][21] Earnings Estimates - AGNC's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicate year-over-year declines of 11.2% and 3.9%, respectively [22] - NLY's earnings estimates for the same period suggest year-over-year growth of 6.3% and 1.4% [25] Price Performance & Valuations - Over the past year, AGNC gained 12.6% and NLY rose 17.7%, outperforming the industry average of 8.6% [29] - AGNC trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) multiple of 1.10X, while NLY trades at 0.99X, both above the industry average of 0.98X [31][34] Conclusion - NLY's recent dividend hike and diversified strategy position it as a more attractive option for long-term stability and growth compared to AGNC, which has faced challenges due to its concentrated agency MBS exposure [36][38]

Haibin Zhu haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch Securitized Product Research John Sim AC john.sim@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC US Equity Research Strategic Research 23 June 2025 J P M O R G A N J.P. Morgan Perspectives Defying Expectations: Housing Bubble Has Yet to Burst Emerging Markets Asia, Economic and Policy Research Securitized Product Research Nick Maciunas AC nicholas.m.maciunas@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Ayako Fujita ayako.fujita@jpmorgan.com ...

The company enjoys a decent financial position. As of March 31, 2025, AGNC Investment's liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was $6 billion. The company's leverage increased modestly to 7.5X at the end of the first quarter (from 7.2X in the prior quarter). It has a long-term debt of $62 million as of the same date. Hence, given its decent liquidity profile, the capital distribution plan seems sustainable. The Case for ABR Key Takeaways Within the mREIT industry, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC ...

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) benefits from a well-diversified capital allocation strategy, with an investment portfolio totaling $84.9 billion as of March 31, 2025, which includes residential credit, mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [1][9] Investment Strategy - The diversified investment strategy is expected to contribute significantly to long-term growth and stability, allowing the company to capitalize on various opportunities while mitigating risks from overexposure to specific areas [2] - In 2022, NLY divested its Middle Market Lending portfolio and exited the commercial real estate sector, reallocating capital to enhance its core housing finance strategy and focus on residential credit, MSR, and Agency MBS [3] - The inclusion of MSRs is particularly advantageous as their value tends to rise with increasing interest rates, providing a hedge against declines in agency MBS values, which may lead to more consistent returns [4] Competitive Landscape - AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) adopts a proactive portfolio management approach, frequently adjusting asset allocations and hedging strategies to reduce risks and capture yield opportunities [5] - Starwood Property Trust (STWD) focuses on commercial real estate, holding a diversified portfolio of $1.02 billion as of Q1 2025, and maintains steady income through principal repayments and targeted acquisitions [6] Performance Metrics - NLY shares have increased by 9.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 4.8% [7][9] - The forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio for Annaly is 0.98X, slightly above the industry average of 0.96X [10] - Earnings estimates for NLY indicate a year-over-year increase of 6.3% for 2025 and 1.4% for 2026, with upward revisions in the past 60 days [13]

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corp. is adopting a proactive and defensive portfolio management strategy aimed at long-term growth by frequently adjusting asset allocations and hedging strategies to mitigate risks while seizing yield opportunities [1] Portfolio Management - The company has maintained a robust hedge position, covering 91% of its Investment Securities Repo, TBA positions, and other debt as of March 31, 2025, indicating a strong focus on protecting against interest rate volatility [2] - AGNC has strategically reduced its exposure to more volatile non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and shifted towards higher-coupon Agency MBS, which enhances prepayment probability and supports better cash flow visibility [3] Market Positioning - With spreads between Agency MBS and benchmarks reaching near-pandemic highs in early April 2025, AGNC's $77.9 billion Agency MBS portfolio is well-positioned for compelling forward returns, particularly on a leveraged basis, as these securities are backed by Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) [4] - Despite potential fluctuations in short-term earnings due to market volatility, AGNC's disciplined active management and defensive positioning provide a solid foundation for long-term growth [5] Competitive Landscape - AGNC competes with Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Starwood Property Trust (STWD) within the mortgage REITs industry, with differing investment approaches among the companies [6] - Annaly pursues a diversified strategy combining traditional Agency MBS with non-agency and credit-sensitive assets, focusing on acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) to enhance returns [7] - Starwood focuses primarily on commercial real estate, including commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and real estate debt investments, maintaining steady income through principal repayments and targeted acquisitions [8] Performance Metrics - AGNC shares have gained 6.4% year to date, outperforming the industry's growth of 2.8% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-tangible book ratio of 1.08X, above the industry's average of 0.96X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGNC's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year declines of 11.2% and 3.9%, respectively, with estimates remaining unchanged over the past 30 days [15]

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) has demonstrated strong stock performance, gaining 8% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the industry average of 1.7% and its peers AGNC Investment and Arbor Realty Trust [1][4]. Price Performance - NLY's stock has outperformed AGNC Investment, which grew by 5.7%, and Arbor Realty Trust, which fell by 20.9% during the same period [4]. Interest Rate Impact - The Federal Reserve's reduction of interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024 has led to a slight decline in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.84% as of June 12, 2025, down from 6.95% a year prior [6]. - Lower mortgage rates are expected to improve housing affordability and increase loan demand, which will benefit NLY [7]. Financial Outlook - NLY is likely to see improvements in book value due to rising purchase originations and refinancing activities, as well as tightening spreads in the Agency market, which will enhance net interest spread and overall yield [8]. - The company has a strong dividend profile, currently yielding 14.7%, higher than the industry average of 11.7%, with a recent 7.7% increase in its dividend payout [9]. Liquidity and Capital Management - As of the end of Q1 2025, NLY had $7.5 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in unencumbered Agency MBS, providing substantial liquidity [11]. - The company has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1.5 billion, which will expire on December 31, 2029, although no shares have been repurchased under this plan yet [12]. Diversification Strategy - NLY's diversified capital allocation includes residential credit, mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), totaling an investment portfolio of $84.9 billion as of March 31, 2025 [13][15]. - The inclusion of MSRs is significant as they tend to increase in value when interest rates rise, providing a hedge against declines in agency MBS [16]. Valuation Analysis - NLY is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-tangible book (P/TB) multiple of 0.98X, which is higher than the industry average of 0.96X, indicating a premium valuation [17][20]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upward over the past 60 days, indicating a constructive sentiment around NLY's stock [22].

Key Takeaways Mortgage rate declines and Fed cuts are boosting AGNC's loan demand and reducing funding costs. AGNC offers a 15.43% dividend yield and has a $1B stock repurchase plan active through 2026. Despite gains and MBS strength, AGNC trades at a premium valuation versus industry and peers.AGNC Investment Inc.'s (AGNC) performance and prospects are significantly influenced by mortgage rates. Mortgage rates have been witnessing a decline lately. Per a Freddie Mac report, the average rate on a 30-year ...

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment has a high dividend yield of approximately 16%, but its stock price has been declining, raising questions about the sustainability of its payout and whether it is a good investment opportunity [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that primarily invests in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which carry virtually no credit risk [1]. - The company has faced significant challenges due to rising mortgage interest rates and widening spreads between MBS yields and Treasury yields [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - AGNC's tangible book value (TBV) has decreased by 45% from $15.75 at the end of 2021 to $8.70 per share by the end of 2023, and further declined to $8.25 at the end of Q1 2025 [4]. - The company has maintained its dividend payout despite a challenging environment, although this has impacted its TBV [10]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have contributed to higher mortgage rates, which have negatively affected AGNC's performance [2]. - The yield curve has been inverted, which is unfavorable for AGNC's income generation model, but it has recently flipped to a positive slope, potentially benefiting the company [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated potential rate cuts, which could lower AGNC's short-term funding costs and improve MBS valuations, positively impacting TBV [5][6]. - If MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads narrow as banks re-enter the MBS market, AGNC could see a recovery in both its book value and share price, leading to potential total returns of 20% to 25% annually in the coming years [13][14]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - AGNC is characterized as a high-risk, high-reward income investment, with the current market conditions possibly turning in its favor after enduring the impact of higher interest rates [15]. - For income-focused investors, AGNC presents a high yield with strong potential upside, although it requires active management and understanding of associated risks [16].

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment Corp. is actively managing its portfolio to navigate market volatility and interest rate fluctuations, maintaining a strong liquidity position while facing challenges in the financial landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - Strong Portfolio Management: AGNC employs an active portfolio-management strategy, with interest rate hedges covering 91% of its investment securities as of March 31, 2025, and has shifted towards higher-coupon securities for stability [2]. - Agency MBS Investments Driving Returns: The company holds $77.9 billion in Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), benefiting from government guarantees, which positions it well for spread-widening opportunities [3]. - Stable Financial Position: AGNC has $6 billion in unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, with a modest increase in leverage to 7.5X, allowing for flexibility in future investments [4]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Impressive ROE: AGNC's return on equity (ROE) stands at 20.36%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.82%, showcasing effective management of shareholders' funds [5]. - Price Performance: Over the past month, AGNC shares have increased by 3.1%, while the industry has grown by 4.3% [8]. Group 3: Challenges - Volatile Mortgage Market: The performance of AGNC is affected by mortgage market volatility and economic conditions, leading to a 25% dividend cut in 2020, which has been maintained since [6]. - Fluctuating Interest Rates: The company is adjusting its portfolio in response to interest rate changes and market volatility, reducing Agency RMBS and focusing on risk management, although strong returns are anticipated to be challenging in the short term [7].

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) presents a more attractive investment opportunity compared to Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) due to its stronger liquidity, sustainable dividend, and positive financial outlook, while ABR faces significant risks and challenges [1][19]. Group 1: Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - NLY is focused on improving liquidity and reducing leverage, with total assets available for financing amounting to $7.5 billion, including $4.7 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2]. - The company has a monthly dividend yield of 14.9% and a payout ratio of 101%, with a recent cash dividend increase of 7.7% to 70 cents per share, indicating confidence in cash flow and growth prospects [3]. - NLY's investment strategy includes traditional Agency MBSs for downside protection and investments in non-agency and credit-focused asset classes to enhance returns, supported by a scaled mortgage servicing rights (MSR) platform [4]. - As of March 31, 2025, NLY's investment portfolio totaled $84.9 billion, and the company expects book value improvement as mortgage rates decline, which will enhance net interest spread and overall yield [5][6]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NLY's 2025 and 2026 sales indicates year-over-year increases of 492.8% and 13.2%, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 6.3% and 1.4% in the same periods [13]. Group 2: Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) - ABR focuses on originating and servicing loans for multi-family, single-family, and commercial real estate assets, with expectations of improved mortgage originations as housing affordability challenges decline [7]. - The current dividend yield for ABR is 12.66%, but the company recently reduced its dividend by 30.3% to 30 cents per share, reflecting concerns over its weak liquidity position, which includes cash and cash equivalents of $508 million against long-term debt of $4.8 billion [8]. - ABR has significant exposure to multi-family loans, with seven non-performing loans totaling $196.7 million foreclosed in the first quarter of 2025, indicating credit risk [9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ABR's 2025 sales suggests a year-over-year decline of 17.9%, with earnings expected to fall by 32.2% in the same year, although a slight recovery is anticipated in 2026 [17].