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Kratos Defense Gains 59.8% in the Past 3 Months: How to Play the Stock?
ZACKSยท 2025-09-10 17:51
Core Insights - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) shares have increased by 59.8% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense Equipment industry growth of 2.4%, the Aerospace sector's growth of 4.6%, and the S&P 500's rise of 9.4% [1][10]. Performance Drivers - The stock performance of KTOS is attributed to strong quarterly results, new program developments, and strategic collaborations [4]. - A partnership with Airbus was signed in July 2025 to equip the Valkyrie with mission systems for the German Air Force, enhancing global presence [5]. - U.S. defense contracts and upcoming programs like Air Wolf, Athena, and a new fifth-generation jet drone reinforce KTOS's leadership in advanced UAS solutions [5]. - The establishment of a new advanced manufacturing facility in Bristow, OK, for producing the GEK turbojet engine family is expected to bolster KTOS's role in defense and aerospace propulsion [6]. Future Outlook - KTOS is positioned for sustained long-term growth, supported by a broad portfolio in unmanned systems, hypersonics, and propulsion [7]. - The company anticipates securing a sole-source contract for the Air Wolf tactical jet drone by the end of 2025, with production expected to begin in late 2026 [7]. - Advancements in hypersonic systems like Erinyes, Dark Fury, and Icarus are also part of the company's growth strategy [8]. - A $1.41 billion backlog and clear delivery schedules over the next two years position KTOS to generate consistent revenues [12]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KTOS's 2025 revenues indicates a 15.7% improvement from the prior year, with earnings expected to improve by 4.1% [14]. - For 2026, revenue estimates suggest a year-over-year growth of 17%, while earnings are projected to grow by 39.2% [14]. - Current revenue estimates for the current year (2025) stand at $1.31 billion, with a forecast of $1.54 billion for the next year (2026) [15]. Valuation Metrics - KTOS shares are currently trading at a forward Price/Sales (P/S F12M) ratio of 7.43X, which is below the industry average of 9.48X, indicating a potential discount [17]. - The Return on Equity (ROE) for KTOS is 4.83, which is below the industry average of 8.56, suggesting lower returns on equity compared to peers [20]. Conclusion - Kratos Defense is well-positioned for long-term growth, supported by its expanding drone portfolio, strategic partnerships, advancements in hypersonics and propulsion, and a substantial backlog [21]. - Despite strong growth prospects, challenges such as supply-chain constraints, inflationary pressures, and labor shortages remain [22].