United's stock and other airline shares get a reality check from rising oil prices, market jitters - MarketWatch# United's stock and other airline shares get a reality check from rising oil prices, market jitters## United Airlines' stock leads S&P 500 declinersPublished: Feb. 27, 2026 at 2:03 p.m. ETShareResize---Listen(2 min)United Airlines' stock was on track for its worst percentage decline since April. Photo: Getty ImagesUnited Airlines' stock was leading S&P 500 index decliners on Friday and heading fo ...

Core Insights - Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA) reported strong traffic numbers for December 2025, driven by high air travel demand, with revenue passenger miles (RPM) increasing year-over-year [1][7] Group 1: Traffic and Capacity - CPA's available seat miles (ASM) increased by 10% year-over-year in December to match the demand surge [2][7] - RPM surged by 10.9% year-over-year, indicating robust passenger volume growth [2][7] - The load factor improved to 86% in December 2025, up from 85.3% in December 2024, reflecting that traffic outpaced capacity expansion [2][7] Group 2: Price Performance - CPA's shares have risen by 41.7% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Zacks Airline industry, which saw an 11.8% increase [3] Group 3: Competitor Performance - Ryanair reported a 7% year-over-year increase in passengers transported, totaling 14.5 million in December 2025, with a load factor of 92% [5] - LATAM Airlines experienced a 10.5% year-over-year increase in revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK) and transported 7.9 million passengers, a 7.6% increase year-over-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, an 8.6% decline year-over-year, with revenues projected at $15.38 billion, reflecting a 4.7% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.8% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts forecast 'Operating revenue- Passenger revenue' at $13.99 billion, a 5.4% increase from the prior-year quarter [5]. - The estimate for 'Operating revenue- Other operating revenue' is $975.07 million, suggesting an 8.5% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Operating revenue- Cargo' is expected to be $462.81 million, indicating an 11.2% decline from the year-ago quarter [5]. Key Metrics - The 'Passenger load factor - Consolidated' is projected to reach 83.0%, up from 82.3% in the same quarter last year [6]. - Analysts predict 'ASMs (Available seat miles)' will be 83.32 billion, compared to 78.30 billion in the same quarter last year [7]. - The estimated 'RPMs (Revenue passenger miles)' is 69.17 billion, an increase from 64.46 billion in the previous year [8]. - 'Fuel gallons consumed' is expected to be 1181 million gallons, up from 1115 million gallons year-over-year [9]. Stock Performance - United Airlines shares have returned +1.7% over the past month, compared to a +2.1% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [11]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [11].