Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Short - term basis repair is completed, and further upward movement is difficult. With multiple factors affecting the market, the sugar price is under pressure to fall [3] Price and Spread Data - Sugar futures: SR01 closed at 5294 with a daily decline of 1.3% and a weekly increase of 2.26%; SR03 closed at 5287 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 3.46%; etc [4] - Sugar basis: On December 25, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 24 with a daily increase of 28 and a weekly decrease of 102; etc [9] - Import price: On December 26, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4157 with a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 75; the out - of - quota price was 5270 with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 98; etc [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short term, there is still hedging pressure on cotton prices to be digested. In the long term, if the supply expectation remains unchanged, the cotton supply - demand in the new year may be tight, and cotton prices have room to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders before the holiday [14] Price and Spread Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures: Cotton01 closed at 14565 with an increase of 270 (1.89%); Cotton05 closed at 14535 with an increase of 280 (1.96%); etc [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 782 with a daily decrease of 242; the spread of cotton01 - 05 was 30 with a daily decrease of 10; etc [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The overall trading of late Fuji inventory is slow, and transactions are mostly on - demand. Merchants' restocking is temporarily over [18] Price and Spread Data - Apple futures: AP01 closed at 9694 with a daily increase of 0.03% and a weekly increase of 1.14%; AP03 closed at 9360 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.8%; etc [19] - Apple spreads: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 483 with a daily increase of 2.11% and a weekly increase of 16.39%; etc [19] Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - In the short term, red date prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new year in China is loose, and prices will still be under pressure [26] Price and Spread Data - Red date futures spreads: The spread of red date futures (01 - 05) shows certain trends in different years; etc [27]

Core Insights - The domestic commodity market showed mixed trends, with apples rising nearly 4% while gold and silver fell over 4% and 3% respectively [1][4] Group 1: Apple Market - Apple futures surged by 3.96%, reaching a new high since November 2023, driven by tightening supply of quality apples as they enter storage [2] - The main contract for apples has seen a significant increase in open interest, with a cumulative rise of over 35,000 contracts in the last four trading days [2] - Analysts suggest that while the short-term fundamentals support higher prices, apples priced above 9,000 yuan/ton may face seasonal demand challenges [2] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Prices - U.S. soybean prices hit $11 per bushel, the highest since July last year, leading to increases in both soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices, which rose by 2.39% and 1.40% respectively [3] - The rise in meal prices is primarily supported by higher import costs for U.S. soybeans, which have reached a five-month high [3] - Despite the price increases, the overall supply of oilseeds remains ample, and domestic soybean crushing levels are high, which may limit further demand for protein meals [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with Shanghai gold falling over 4% and silver over 3%, attributed to improved market risk appetite following U.S.-China trade discussions [4] - Citigroup has revised its short-term gold price target down from $4,000 to $3,800, indicating a bearish outlook for gold prices in the near term [4] - The future performance of gold is contingent on key factors such as potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and the strength of the U.S. economy [4] Group 4: Other Commodities - Iron ore prices increased by nearly 2% due to reduced port inventories despite increased overseas shipments [3] - Other commodities like synthetic rubber, palm oil, and copper also saw declines, with synthetic rubber dropping over 2% and several others falling more than 1% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic agricultural futures market on May 16 showed mixed performance among various agricultural products, with notable price movements in live pigs, apples, red dates, and eggs [1] Price Movements - The main live pig futures fell by 1.12%, closing at 13,700.00 CNY/ton [1] - Apple futures increased by 0.96%, closing at 7,811.00 CNY/ton [1] - Red date futures decreased by 0.38%, closing at 9,125.00 CNY/ton [1] - Egg futures also fell by 0.38%, closing at 2,891.00 CNY/500 kg [1] Opening and Closing Prices - Egg opening price was 2,886.00 CNY, previous close was 2,885.00 CNY, and last settlement was 2,902.00 CNY [1] - Live pig opening price was 13,780.00 CNY, previous close was 13,780.00 CNY, and last settlement was 13,855.00 CNY [1] - Red date opening price was 9,115.00 CNY, previous close was 9,145.00 CNY, and last settlement was 9,160.00 CNY [1] - Apple opening price was 7,726.00 CNY, previous close was 7,730.00 CNY, and last settlement was 7,737.00 CNY [1] Basis Data - As of May 15, there was a "backwardation" phenomenon in the contracts for apples, red dates, eggs, and live pigs, indicating that spot prices were higher than futures prices [1] - For apples, the spot price was 9,100 CNY, futures price was 7,730 CNY, with a basis of 1,370 CNY and a basis rate of 15.05% [1] - For red dates, the spot price was 9,200 CNY, futures price was 9,145 CNY, with a basis of 55 CNY and a basis rate of 0.60% [1] - For eggs, the spot price was 3,375 CNY, futures price was 3,013 CNY, with a basis of 362 CNY and a basis rate of 10.73% [1] - For live pigs, the spot price was 14,680 CNY, futures price was 13,855 CNY, with a basis of 825 CNY and a basis rate of 5.62% [1]