坎昆升级（Dencun Upgrade）通过 EIP-4844 等提案大幅降低 L2 数据存储成本，推动行业进入 "性能过剩 但生态不均" 的分化阶段。这种分化并非简单的 "强者恒强"，而是呈现交易集中度、技术路线、生态活 力、流动性分布的多维失衡，具体表现如下： 一、交易格局：头部链垄断超 60% 交易量，中小项目陷入萎缩 坎昆升级后，不同技术路线的 L2 项目性能与成本分化加剧。Optimistic Rollups（如 Arbitrum、 Optimism）成为最大受益者，Arbitrum 手续费从 0.62 美元降至 0.01 美元，降幅高达 97.01%，Optimism 手续费降幅也超 90%，凭借低成本吸引大量小额交易用户。而 ZK Rollups 系（如 Linea、Scroll、Polygon zkEVM）由于技术架构差异，手续费降幅不足 50%，仍维持在 0.5 美元以上，成本劣势导致用户流失明 显。这种分化背后是技术 trade-off 的现实体现：ZK Rollups 虽具备即时最终性优势，但数据压缩与证明 生成的成本未能通过坎昆升级有效降低，短期内难以缩小与 Optimistic Ro ...

吴说获悉，KOL manya 批评 Monad 是糟糕的加密项目，因为该团队花费 4 年时间构建、从 VC 筹集 5 亿美元，但 MON 代币却从 ATH 下跌了 90%。这也引起了 CT 热议，有评论认为不能以价格行为就将 其称为糟糕，像 Solana、Avalanche、Near、Aptos 和 Arbitrum 在推出后都经历了 80-95% 的下跌，VC 资金也不会转化为代币表现，以及炒作加速了预期而非基本面。 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan analysts indicate that the Fusaka upgrade for Ethereum, set to launch in December 2025, will temporarily boost transaction volume and active address numbers by increasing data capacity and reducing fees [1] Group 1: Ethereum Network Dynamics - The report highlights a trend of mainnet usage migrating to Layer 2 networks such as Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism, which may impact Ethereum's long-term viability [1] - Alternative blockchains like Solana are attracting users due to lower costs and higher efficiency, further straining Ethereum's market position [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Speculation - The speculative demand driven by ICOs, NFTs, and memecoins during the 2021-2022 bull market has significantly declined, affecting Ethereum's transaction activity [1] - Applications like Uniswap and dYdX are shifting towards dedicated chains, which undermines Ethereum's fee generation and burning mechanisms, leading to an increase in ETH supply and downward pressure on prices [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that on January 14, only three Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) chains generated daily transaction fees exceeding $5,000, namely Base (approximately $147,000), Arbitrum (approximately $39,000), and Starknet (approximately $9,000) [1] - Base's revenue accounts for nearly 70% of the total revenue generated by all Ethereum L2 chains, indicating a significant competitive advantage [1] - The combined revenue of all other L2 chains is slightly above $15,000, showcasing a stark contrast in performance compared to Base [1]

Core Insights - The fourth quarter of 2025 was challenging for crypto markets, with most major assets ending the year negatively, yet analysts suggest a potential rebound may occur in 2026 due to three key signals [1] Group 1: Bullish Divergences - The first signal is the formation of bullish divergences on weekly charts for several altcoins, indicating weakening bearish momentum and a potential trend reversal. Analysts highlight Optimism, Arbitrum, Near, and Avalanche as examples [2] Group 2: Altcoin Dominance - The second indicator is the Others.D index, which tracks the market dominance of cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 by market capitalization. Analysts note that Others.D is nearing a breakout from a multi-year falling wedge, suggesting potential bullish movement [3][4] - Currently, Others.D is around 6.88%, with an upside target of 13.77% if a breakout occurs [4] Group 3: Trading Volume - The final signal comes from centralized exchange volume data, showing that the ratio of altcoin volume (excluding the top five cryptocurrencies) is significantly higher compared to previous cycles, indicating increased interest in altcoins [6]

Onchain Traffic & Asset Availability - High-quality assets are projected to increase onchain traffic by multiples in 2026 [1] - Example: Google on Arbitrum issued by Robinhood [1]

🚨 🚨 🚨 20,000 #ETH (54,768,893 USD) transferred from #Arbitrum to #Binancehttps://t.co/d6UT2AFrng ...

Arbitrum Ecosystem Expansion - MessariCrypto's report on Arbitrum, titled "Arbitrum Everywhere: Beyond the Limits," will be released next week during EFDevcon [1] - RobinhoodApp is pioneering Arbitrum's app-to-chain model [1] - Protocols like USDai_Official and Theo_Network are launching institutional-grade products on Arbitrum [1]

Or this Arbitrum proposal "A Vision for the Future of Arbitrum""Many of the bottlenecks facing the ArbitrumDAO is due to the lack of participation from The Arbitrum Foundation and Offchain Labs…We think it is time to rectify it and to be more actively involved to support the ArbitrumDAO."or“We expect the number of proposals will significantly diminish in favor of more informal feedback loops… before anything reaches the DAO.” ...

Cryptocurrency Transfer - 20,000 ETH 从 Arbitrum 转移到 Binance [1] - 转移的 ETH 价值约为 6813 万美元 [1]