lululemon athletica inc. ( LULU ) was once a market darling, especially during COVID-19, as "sweat-at-home" was a prevailing trend back then. Fast forward to today, this stock is one of the most hated names in the market owing to its massive underperformance against theBuyside analyst covering global stocks on Seeking Alpha since 2018. I've been investing personally and professionally across major equity markets for about a decade. Subscribe for equity research and trading ideas.Opinions are not qualified i ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike is recognized as a leader in the global athletic apparel and footwear market but is currently facing challenges, with shares trading 64% below their peak in November 2021, as it undergoes a strategic pivot to regain consistent sales and profit growth [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For fiscal 2026, consensus analyst estimates predict revenue growth of less than 1%, indicating stabilizing demand levels [4]. - Earnings per share are expected to decline by 28% due to President Trump's tariffs adding $1.5 billion to annual product costs, alongside pressure on margins from increased wholesale revenues [5]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - Nike is refocusing on core areas that solidified its industry position, emphasizing fresh sports-centered products and realigning with retail partners after a shift towards direct-to-consumer e-commerce during the COVID-19 pandemic [6]. - The company is leveraging its marketing capabilities to strengthen connections with customers [6]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - The fashion industry presents challenges due to changing consumer tastes, but Nike's established brand and experience provide a durable competitive advantage, allowing the company time to adapt and strengthen its market position [8]. Group 4: Investment Potential - Achieving a 100-fold return on investment from $10,000 to $1 million in 25 years would require an annualized growth rate of about 20%, which is considered slim [9].

Group 1 - Under Armour has a high short interest of approximately 33.4% of its float, indicating significant negative sentiment among investors [2][3] - The company reported Q3 fiscal 2026 results on February 6, exceeding expectations and prompting a reassessment of its stock [2][7] - Following the earnings report, Under Armour's stock surged by 19.4%, reaching a new 52-week high of $7.70, but later faced a decline after Citigroup downgraded the stock from "Neutral" to "Sell" [3] Group 2 - Under Armour, based in Baltimore, Maryland, specializes in athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.9 billion [4] - The stock has shown a significant upward trend, increasing by 39.34% over the past six months and 48.8% over the last three months, despite a modest 2.87% rise over the last 52 weeks [5] - Valuation-wise, Under Armour's shares are trading at 0.60 times sales, which is below the industry average and its own five-year historical multiple, potentially attracting value-oriented investors [6]

Core Insights - Under Armour reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with earnings per share of $0.09 compared to analyst expectations of a $0.02 loss, leading to a more than 11% increase in shares intra-day [1] - Revenue for the quarter totaled $1.33 billion, a 6% decline on a currency-neutral basis but slightly above the consensus estimate of $1.31 billion [1] Revenue Breakdown - North America revenue fell 10% to $757 million, negatively impacting overall results [2] - International revenue increased 3% to $577 million, with a 1% growth on a currency-neutral basis; EMEA revenue rose 2%, Asia-Pacific declined 5%, and Latin America increased 13% [2] Financial Metrics - Adjusted operating income reached $26 million, excluding litigation reserves and transformation and restructuring costs [3] - Gross margin declined by 310 basis points to 44.4%, primarily due to higher tariffs [3] Future Outlook - Under Armour forecasts fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $0.10 to $0.11, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $0.05 [3] - The company expects full-year revenue to decline by approximately 4%, an improvement from the previous outlook of a 4% to 5% decrease [3]

Core Insights - Tapasya Fund achieved a net return of 23.5% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's return of 17.9% [1] - The fund's performance was supported by the theme of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which helped the market reach over 38 new all-time highs [1] - The fund aims to avoid sector-specific bubble bursts to mitigate portfolio risks during market downturns [1] Company Analysis: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) - Lululemon's one-month return was 3.51%, but it experienced a significant decline of 46.35% over the past 52 weeks, with a market capitalization of $25.161 billion as of January 08, 2026 [2] - The investment thesis for Lululemon is based on its potential for international expansion, particularly in China, despite facing challenges from tariffs and competition [3] - Lululemon's Q3 2025 net revenue rose 7% to $2.6 billion, but it is not among the top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with a decrease in hedge fund holdings from 55 to 42 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry's bullish perspective on Lululemon suggests that the company's recent struggles may present a buying opportunity for investors, as he believes the pessimism surrounding the stock is overdone [1][20][24] Company Overview - Founded in 1998 and headquartered in Vancouver, Lululemon designs and markets athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for both men and women, targeting consumers with active lifestyles [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $24.8 billion and operates globally through various channels, including company-owned stores, outlets, and e-commerce platforms [5] Recent Performance and Challenges - Lululemon's stock has declined over 60% from its all-time high of $516.39 in December 2023, primarily due to softening U.S. demand, product cycle issues, and increased competition [6][12] - The company has faced operational challenges, including management's acknowledgment of stale product lines and the need for improved execution, leading to two cuts in full-year guidance [4][12] - Lululemon is set to exit the Nasdaq 100, which may trigger further selling as index funds rebalance [3] Financial Results - In Q3, Lululemon reported a 7.1% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.57 billion, driven by a 33% surge in international revenues, while net revenues in the Americas fell by 2% [12][18] - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 was $2.59, down 9.8% year-over-year, reflecting margin pressures from higher markdowns and tariffs [13] - The company has a strong balance sheet with $1 billion in cash and no debt, and it plans to continue share buybacks [14] Future Outlook - For Q4, Lululemon expects revenues between $3.5 billion and $3.59 billion, with EPS projected at $4.66 to $4.76, indicating near-term margin pressure but a steadier long-term trajectory [18] - The company plans to open 17 net new stores in Q4 and 46 for the full fiscal year 2025, with a focus on international expansion, particularly in China [15][17] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus rating for Lululemon is currently "Hold," with only three out of 30 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy" [22] - Following a recent rally, LULU stock has surpassed the average price target of $205.65, but the highest target of $303 suggests potential upside of nearly 42% [23]

Core Insights - Nike reported fiscal second-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue, but shares fell over 9% intra-day due to margin pressure and weakness in China [1][2] Financial Performance - Earnings per share were $0.53 on revenue of $12.43 billion for the quarter, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.37 per share on revenue of $12.2 billion [1] - Revenue strength was primarily driven by North America, where sales increased by 9% year over year to $5.6 billion [2] Regional Performance - China sales declined by 17% to $1.42 billion, missing analyst expectations of $1.6 billion, indicating a weak spot for the company [2] Margin Analysis - Gross margin decreased by 300 basis points to 40.6%, impacted by increased promotional activities to clear excess inventory, especially in North America, and higher tariffs that raised input costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - Activist investor Elliott Management has acquired a stake exceeding $1 billion in Lululemon Athletica, indicating a strategic move to influence the company's direction and management [1] Company Summary - Elliott Management is actively seeking a potential CEO candidate to lead Lululemon Athletica, aiming to revitalize the company's performance in the athletic apparel sector [1] Industry Summary - The athletic apparel industry is facing challenges, prompting activist investors like Elliott Management to intervene and push for changes in leadership and strategy to enhance company performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are showing a bullish stance on Lululemon Athletica, indicated by significant options trading activity, suggesting that there may be upcoming developments that could impact the stock price [1][2]. Options Trading Activity - Benzinga's options scanner identified 29 uncommon options trades for Lululemon Athletica, with a split sentiment among big-money traders: 41% bullish and 41% bearish [2][3]. - The total amount for put options was $1,085,113, while call options totaled $1,437,728, indicating a notable interest in both directions [3]. Price Projections - The analysis of volume and open interest suggests that major players are targeting a price range for Lululemon Athletica between $150.0 and $300.0 over the past quarter [4]. Volume and Open Interest Trends - Insights into volume and open interest are crucial for understanding liquidity and interest levels in Lululemon Athletica's options, particularly within the strike price range of $150.0 to $300.0 over the past month [5]. Largest Options Trades - Significant options trades include: - A call trade with a total price of $460,000 at a strike price of $220.00, expiring on 09/18/26 [9]. - A put trade valued at $363,300 with a strike price of $175.00, expiring on 12/19/25 [9]. - Additional bearish call trades with varying strike prices and sentiments, indicating mixed market expectations [9]. Current Market Status - Lululemon Athletica has a consensus target price of $222.0 from three market experts, with individual ratings reflecting a range of sentiments from Neutral to Buy [12][13]. - Trading volume for Lululemon Athletica stands at 1,808,405, with the stock price at $182.71, showing a slight increase of 0.22% [15].

Core Insights - Investors are showing a bullish sentiment towards Lululemon Athletica, with significant options trading activity indicating potential price movements [1][2][3] Options Trading Activity - A total of 12 uncommon options trades were identified, with 58% of the sentiment being bullish and 33% bearish [2][3] - The total amount for put options was $152,970, while call options totaled $681,144, indicating a stronger interest in calls [3] - Significant investors are targeting a price range of $160.0 to $230.0 for Lululemon over the past three months based on trading activity [4] Volume and Open Interest Trends - The analysis of volume and open interest provides insights into liquidity and investor interest in Lululemon's options, particularly within the $160.0 to $230.0 strike price range over the last 30 days [5] Recent Options Activity - Noteworthy options activity includes various trades with different sentiments and strike prices, such as: - A call option with a strike price of $180.00 totaling $299.5K [9] - A put option with a strike price of $170.00 totaling $66.9K [9] - A put option with a strike price of $175.00 totaling $60.0K [9] Current Market Position - Analysts have issued ratings for Lululemon, with a consensus target price of $222.0, while some analysts have different ratings and target prices, such as $303 from BTIG and $180 from Goldman Sachs [12][13] - The current trading volume for Lululemon is 355,150, with the stock price at $181.56, reflecting a 2.28% increase [15]