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摩根士丹利:中国汽车半导体国产化-投资者反馈
摩根· 2025-07-11 02:22
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating for the Greater China Tech Semiconductors industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for auto semiconductor localization in China, driven by the dominance of Chinese EVs in the global market, government support, and sufficient mature node foundry supply [1][19]. - Three key investment themes are identified within the China auto semiconductor supply chain, focusing on power semiconductors, autonomous driving chips, and microcontroller units (MCUs) [20][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Themes - The report identifies three main investment themes in the China auto semiconductor supply chain: 1. **Power Semiconductors**: Companies like Yangjie Technology and Starpower are highlighted for their strong positions in the market, with Yangjie showing a stable net margin of approximately 18% over the last three years [2][20]. 2. **Autonomous Driving Chips**: Companies such as Horizon Robotics and Alchip are noted for their roles in the growing ADAS market, with increasing adoption in more affordable EVs [21][23]. 3. **Microcontroller Units (MCUs)**: GigaDevice is recognized for its potential to benefit from localization trends, despite the current low self-sufficiency ratio of 3% in auto MCUs [21][40]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that global auto semiconductor vendors from Europe, Japan, and the US dominate the market, with Greater China's share accounting for less than 5% [8][22]. - The growth of the electric vehicle (EV) market in China is highlighted, with expectations for EV production to nearly triple by 2030, leading to increased semiconductor content per vehicle [22][36]. Self-Sufficiency and Growth Potential - The report projects that China's auto semiconductor self-sufficiency will reach 28% by 2027, with significant growth opportunities in power discretes and MCUs due to their current low self-sufficiency ratios [10][46]. - The report indicates that local power semiconductor companies are willing to sacrifice margins for market share, which may lead to increased competitiveness against global players [26]. Export Opportunities - The potential for direct exports of auto semiconductors from China is deemed low, with the focus instead on leveraging EV exports, which are expected to grow by 31% in 2025 [4][19]. Stock Recommendations - The report provides a list of recommended stocks, with Yangjie Technology and OmniVision favored for their growth prospects in the auto segment, while Horizon Robotics faces challenges due to heavy R&D investments [2][18].