Core Insights - The home improvement and hardware retail sector is experiencing significant challenges, including a wave of retailer closures expected to continue through the end of 2025 [1] - The Home Improvement Research Institute has revised its annual consumer sales projection down to a 1.3% increase, halving its previous estimate of 2.6% [2] - Economic factors such as high mortgage rates, declining housing starts, and increased home prices are contributing to reduced consumer visits to home improvement stores [3] Industry Trends - The average 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 6.34% as of November 25, 2025, compared to 3.02% on November 20, 2020, impacting housing market dynamics [3] - The combination of rising home prices and a decrease in home sales has led to fewer customers visiting hardware stores [3] Retailer Closures - Several notable hardware stores have permanently closed, including Ritter's True Value Hardware and Carnation Ace Hardware, due to economic pressures [4] - Jerry's Hardware & Rental plans to close two locations by December 31, 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [5] - C&H Hardware, a 65-year-old store, will shut down on November 26, 2025, citing difficulties in competing with online sales and rising prices [6][8] Competitive Landscape - C&H Hardware's owner noted that competition from online retailers and larger chains like Home Depot and Lowe's has made it difficult to sustain business [7][9] - The store had previously performed well before the COVID-19 pandemic but has faced a decline in sales since then [9]

Company Overview - Dana (DAN) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings of +29% to $0.40 per share, despite a revenue decline of 9.4% to $2.48 billion for the quarter ended June 2025 [3][12] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Dana is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +10.90%, indicating a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12] Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for Dana has been revised 2.35% higher over the last 30 days, reflecting a positive reassessment by analysts [4] - The earnings report is crucial for stock movement; better-than-expected results could drive the stock higher, while a miss may lead to a decline [2][15] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) [10] - Dana currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2, further supporting the expectation of an earnings beat [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Dana had an earnings surprise of -23.53%, with actual earnings of $0.13 per share compared to an expected $0.17 [13] - Over the past four quarters, Dana has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [14] Industry Context - In the Zacks Automotive - Original Equipment industry, Lear (LEA) is expected to report earnings of $3.23 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -10.3%, with revenues projected at $5.89 billion, down 2% [18] - Lear has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [19]