Key Takeaways CAR expects Q4 2025 revenues to rise 1.9% and earnings to jump 47.8% year over year.CAR's growth is driven by vehicle rentals, airport share and Zipcar's self-service car-sharing demand.CAR boosts profitability via fleet efficiency, tech partnerships, Avis First launch and share repurchases.Avis Budget Group (CAR) has a Growth Score of A, which condenses key financial metrics to reflect a fair sense of the quality and sustainability of its growth.The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues and ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $3.51 billion for Q3 2025, a 1% increase from $3.48 billion in the same quarter last year, marking the first revenue growth in eight quarters [5][20] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% year-over-year, despite a challenging revenue per day (RPD) environment and significant fleet recalls [20][21] - Consolidated pricing declined by 1%, with RPD in the Americas decreasing by 3%, while international RPD grew by 5% excluding exchange rate effects [21][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas segment experienced a 3% decline in RPD, attributed to softer leisure pricing, while the international segment saw a shift towards higher-margin leisure and inbound business, contributing to a nearly 40% year-over-year increase in EBITDA [21][66] - The company retained older vehicles to meet peak summer demand, which increased depreciation expenses and impacted per unit fleet costs [21][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a mixed demand environment, with leisure demand remaining healthy but uneven across segments and geographies [49] - The government segment was affected by the shutdown, impacting commercial demand [49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing customer experience as a key differentiator, emphasizing service reliability and value over price competition [10][12] - The launch of Avis First is part of a broader transformation strategy aimed at moving the business out of the commodity trap and improving brand equity [15][18] - The company plans to maintain a strong balance sheet while investing in fleet and technology modernization, with a long-term view on customer experience and brand loyalty [25][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about stabilizing revenue and improving customer experience, while acknowledging challenges from rising costs and vehicle recalls [18][25] - The company expects the impact of vehicle recalls to persist into early 2026, affecting overall performance [24][63] Other Important Information - The company has available liquidity of nearly $1 billion and an additional borrowing capacity of $1.9 billion in ABS facilities [24] - Adjusted free cash flow was negative $517 million year-to-date, driven by voluntary fleet contributions [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on summer season performance and RPD decline - Management noted a 3% decline in RPD for the summer, with stronger performance in July and August, and a softening in September due to typical seasonal behavior [30][32] Question: Impact of recalls on financial performance - Management estimated the full-year impact of recalls to be in the range of $90 to $100 million, primarily affecting costs [38][63] Question: Trends in the international segment - The international segment has seen a strategic shift towards higher RPD leisure demand, resulting in a significant EBITDA increase [66] Question: Future of RPD and competitive environment - Management believes RPD can be structurally higher due to cost inflation and is focused on maintaining return on invested capital thresholds [44][45] Question: Long-term strategy for customer experience - The company is committed to a long-term investment in customer experience, aiming to build a sustainable EBITDA base while enhancing service quality [53][56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $3.51 billion for Q3 2025, a 1% increase from $3.48 billion in the same quarter last year, marking the first revenue growth in eight quarters [5][20] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% year-over-year, despite challenges in the RPD environment and fleet recalls [20][21] - Consolidated pricing declined by 1%, with a 3% decrease in RPD in the Americas, while International RPD grew by 5% excluding exchange rate effects [21][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas segment experienced a decline in RPD due to softer leisure pricing, while the International segment saw an increase driven by a shift towards higher-margin leisure and inbound business [21][66] - The company retained older vehicles to meet peak summer demand, which increased depreciation expenses and impacted fleet costs [21][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a mixed demand environment, with leisure demand remaining healthy but uneven across segments and geographies [49] - The government segment was affected by the shutdown, impacting commercial demand [49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing customer experience as a key differentiator, emphasizing service reliability and value [10][12] - Avis First was launched as part of a broader transformation strategy, aiming to deliver a premium customer experience and build brand loyalty [15][16] - The company plans to invest in fleet and technology modernization while maintaining a strong balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders opportunistically [25][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about stabilizing revenue and improving customer experience, while acknowledging challenges from rising costs and vehicle recalls [18][25] - The company expects the impact of vehicle recalls to persist into early 2026, affecting overall performance [24][63] Other Important Information - The company has available liquidity of nearly $1 billion and additional borrowing capacity of $1.9 billion in ABS facilities [24] - Adjusted free cash flow was reported at -$517 million year-to-date, driven by voluntary fleet contributions [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on summer season performance and RPD decline - Management noted a 3% decline in RPD for the summer, with stronger performance in July and August, and acknowledged the need for a structurally higher base RPD [30][32] Question: Impact of recalls on financial performance - The estimated impact of recalls on costs for the full year is projected to be between $90 million and $100 million, affecting utilization and fleet costs [38][63] Question: Trends in the International segment - The International segment has seen a deliberate shift towards higher RPD leisure demand, resulting in a nearly 40% year-over-year increase in EBITDA [66] Question: Future outlook on RPD and competitive environment - Management indicated that while they cannot provide specific guidance on RPD for next year, they expect it to increase due to cost inflation and are focused on maintaining return on invested capital [45][56] Question: Fleet management and utilization strategies - The operations team effectively managed fleet repositioning to maximize utilization despite recalls, which had a significant impact on performance [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $3.51 billion for Q3 2025, a slight increase from $3.48 billion in the same quarter last year, representing a $39 million increase [5] - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% year-over-year, despite a challenging revenue per day (RPD) environment in the Americas and significant fleet recalls [19][20] - Overall pricing declined by 1%, with a 3% decrease in RPD in the Americas, while RPD in International grew by 5% excluding exchange rate effects [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas experienced a 3% decline in RPD, attributed to softer leisure pricing, while the International segment saw a shift towards higher-margin leisure and inbound business, contributing to a nearly 40% year-over-year increase in EBITDA [20][63] - The company retained older vehicles to meet peak summer demand, which increased depreciation expenses and impacted per unit fleet costs [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a mixed demand environment, with leisure demand remaining healthy but uneven across segments and geographies [47] - The government segment was affected by the shutdown, and the commercial side faced challenges, particularly in the government-adjacent business [47] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing customer experience as a differentiating factor, aiming to deliver dependable service at the best value proposition [10][12] - The launch of Avis First is part of a broader transformation strategy to move out of the commodity trap and improve brand equity [14][15] - The company plans to maintain a strong balance sheet while investing in fleet and technology modernization, as well as returning capital to shareholders opportunistically [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about stabilizing revenue and emphasized the importance of cost discipline to reinvest in product and people for revenue growth [7][17] - The company expects the impact of vehicle recalls to linger into early 2026, affecting overall performance [21][60] - Management is focused on maintaining a baseline of over $1 billion in normalized annual EBITDA while investing in customer experience [54] Other Important Information - The company reported available liquidity of nearly $1 billion and an additional borrowing capacity of $1.9 billion in its ABS facilities as of September 30 [22] - The company is actively working with OEM partners to accelerate repairs and return vehicles to service [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on summer season performance and RPD decline - Management noted a 3% decline in RPD for the summer, with stronger performance in July and August, and attributed the decline to typical seasonal behavior [28][30] Question: Interest expense outlook for next year - Management indicated that half of the $3 billion in term maturities next year were issued at lower interest rates, while the other half would be refinanced at higher rates [32][34] Question: Impact of recalls on various metrics - Management estimated a $90 to $100 million impact from recalls for the full year, affecting costs significantly [36][60] Question: Expectations for RPD and competitive landscape - Management believes RPD can be structurally higher due to cost inflation and is focused on return on invested capital rather than market share [42][44] Question: Demand dynamics and upcoming events - Management highlighted mixed demand, with leisure remaining strong but challenges in the government segment, and expressed optimism about upcoming events like the World Cup [46][49] Question: International segment performance - Management reported a strategic shift towards higher RPD leisure demand in the International segment, resulting in substantial EBITDA increases [62][63]

Core Viewpoint - Avis Budget Group's stock has experienced a significant decline following disappointing second-quarter earnings, despite previous optimism in the rental car sector [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter was flat at $3.04 billion, slightly exceeding the consensus estimate of $3 billion [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29%, rising from $214 million to $277 million [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) on a GAAP basis were reported at $0.10, down from $0.41 a year ago and significantly below estimates of $1.83 [5]. Strategic Developments - Avis announced a multiyear strategic partnership with Waymo to launch fully autonomous ride-hailing services in Dallas, with Avis managing the fleet [5]. - The company introduced Avis First, a premium service offering features like frictionless curbside pick-up and drop-off, dedicated concierge, and current-year vehicles [5]. Future Outlook - For the full year, Avis is targeting adjusted EBITDA between $900 million and $1 billion, with per-unit fleet costs projected at $310 to $320 per month [6]. - The company did not provide guidance for the third quarter, but the summer season is critical for profitability [6]. - Despite the recent stock decline, Avis is positioned well with product innovations, and if the economy remains strong, there is potential for stock recovery [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing challenges with revenue per day (RPD) due to tariffs and recalls affecting fleet management, which has led to a conservative approach in accounting for gross depreciation [60][64]. - The company expects a normalized EBITDA of at least $1 billion going forward, despite current challenges [80][81]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The introduction of Avis First aims to redefine the premium car rental experience, with expectations that it will capture a significant share of rental days similar to premium airline seats [106][112]. - The company is focusing on maintaining a fleet of newer, low-mileage vehicles for the Avis First offering, which may involve reallocating resources within the existing fleet [50][51]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall car rental market is competitive, with the company aiming to differentiate itself through innovative offerings rather than competing solely on price [95]. - The company is seeing signs of demand recovery in the leisure segment, which is stronger than the commercial segment [58]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is prioritizing value-creating innovation as a core responsibility, with a focus on enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [9][10]. - The partnership with Waymo is seen as a strategic move to position the company within the autonomous vehicle ecosystem, leveraging its fleet management expertise [30][32]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current operational challenges due to tariffs and recalls but remains optimistic about long-term growth opportunities in the mobility ecosystem [65][66]. - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined approach to investments, ensuring that growth translates into free cash flow while enhancing customer experience [102][103]. Other Important Information - Avis First has been launched in over a dozen locations, with plans to expand to over 50 markets by the end of the year [22][112]. - The company is actively managing its fleet to adapt to market conditions, including being cautious with vehicle purchases in light of tariff uncertainties [85][86]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation of competitive process for Waymo partnership - Management indicated that discussions with multiple AV parties were ongoing, and both parties were aware of the competitive landscape [37]. Question: Long-term vision for Avis Budget's business model - The company sees its core competency in mega fleet management continuing, with potential expansion into autonomous ride-hailing as a future growth area [40][41]. Question: Bandwidth for future partnerships - Management expressed confidence in their capacity to take on future partnerships while maintaining focus on the core rental car business [47]. Question: Fleet considerations for Avis First - The company plans to include more premium vehicles in the fleet for Avis First, ensuring a high-quality customer experience [50][51]. Question: Guidance on RPD and market conditions - Management noted that RPD has been challenged but is seeing signs of improvement due to tightening industry supply and strong leisure demand [58][92]. Question: Revenue model for AV strategy - The specifics of the revenue model for the Waymo partnership are not disclosed, but management emphasized alignment on profitability variables [70][71]. Question: Measuring success of investments - The company evaluates investments based on growth, free cash flow generation, and customer experience enhancement [102][103].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing challenges with revenue per day (RPD) due to tariffs and recalls affecting fleet management and vehicle availability [60][64][66] - The guidance for the second half of the year is between $900 million to $1 billion, reflecting the impact of these challenges [66][80] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The introduction of Avis First is aimed at creating a premium product offering that enhances customer experience and differentiates the brand from competitors [11][12][14] - Avis First is expected to be operational in over 50 markets by the end of the year, with a pricing strategy designed to be margin accretive from day one [23][113] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The leisure travel segment is currently stronger than commercial travel, indicating a shift in demand patterns post-pandemic [58] - The overall industry supply is tightening, which is expected to positively influence RPD in the coming months [93] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on structural growth through value-creating innovation, such as the Avis First initiative and partnerships with autonomous vehicle companies like Waymo [10][24][34] - Avis aims to expand its footprint in the mobility ecosystem, leveraging its core competencies in fleet management to capture a larger share of the market [32][78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the competitive environment but emphasizes the importance of not competing solely on price, instead focusing on enhancing customer value through differentiated offerings [96] - The company is optimistic about the future, with plans to grow its market presence and innovate within the car rental industry [34][113] Other Important Information - The company has faced significant challenges due to recalls affecting 4% of its fleet, particularly impacting higher RPD segments [64][66] - The partnership with Waymo is seen as a strategic move to position Avis as a key player in the autonomous vehicle space, with initial testing already underway [30][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you confirm whether the Waymo agreement was the result of a competitive process? - Management indicated that discussions with multiple AV parties were ongoing, suggesting a competitive landscape for the partnership [38] Question: What is the long-term vision for Avis Budget's business model? - The focus remains on mega fleet management, with plans to expand into autonomous ride-hailing as the market evolves [42] Question: How do you view the bandwidth for future partnerships? - Management expressed confidence in their capacity to take on additional partnerships while maintaining focus on the core rental car business [48] Question: What is the expected impact of Avis First on fleet management? - The initiative will involve a careful selection of premium vehicles, with a focus on enhancing the overall customer experience [52][54] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges posed by tariffs and recalls? - Management is taking a disciplined approach to fleet management and is in ongoing discussions with OEMs to navigate these challenges [85][86] Question: What metrics will be used to measure the success of new investments? - The company will focus on growth, free cash flow generation, and customer experience as key metrics for evaluating success [104][105] Question: What is the expected uptake for Avis First? - While it is early to determine trends, management is optimistic about the potential for Avis First to capture a significant share of rental days [107][113] Question: How do you see the market for the Waymo solution evolving? - Management anticipates that the partnership will expand into additional markets, with a focus on developing a sustainable revenue model [115]

Core Insights - Avis Budget Group reported Q2 2025 revenues of $3.0 billion, net income of $5 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $277 million, reflecting a 29% increase from the previous year [1][20][21]. Financial Performance - Revenues for Q2 2025 were $3.0 billion, slightly down from $3.048 billion in Q2 2024, with revenue per day, excluding exchange rate effects, decreasing by 1% [9][20]. - Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas increased to $220 million from $186 million year-over-year, attributed to lower fleet costs and improved vehicle utilization [9][20]. - International Adjusted EBITDA rose to $82 million from $48 million, driven by stronger pricing and decreased fleet costs, despite a decrease in rental days [9][20]. Operational Highlights - The company launched Avis First, a premium car rental service, on July 21, 2025, aimed at enhancing customer experience with features like dedicated concierge service and premium vehicles [3][8]. - Avis Budget Group announced a multi-year partnership with Waymo to initiate fully autonomous ride-hailing operations in Dallas, Texas, positioning itself as a key player in the evolving mobility ecosystem [3][8]. Debt and Liquidity - In May 2025, Avis issued $600 million in unsecured Senior Notes, using the proceeds to repay existing borrowings and improve liquidity [9][20]. - The company amended its $1.1 billion floating rate term loan, extending its maturity from August 2027 to July 2032, and reported a liquidity position of nearly $950 million at the end of the quarter [9][20]. Key Metrics - The average rental fleet size was 698,633 vehicles, with vehicle utilization at 70.7%, an increase from 70.2% in the previous year [25][40]. - Rental days in the Americas were 33,292, up 1% from the previous year, while international rental days decreased by 4% to 11,653 [25][40]. - Per-unit fleet costs decreased by 12% to $303 per month, reflecting improved operational efficiency [25][40].