Core Viewpoint - The traditional luxury car brands BBA (Benz, BMW, Audi) experienced significant sales declines in China in 2025, indicating a structural loss in the face of the rising dominance of domestic electric vehicle brands and changing consumer preferences [6][10][11]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, Benz, BMW, and Audi's sales in China were 57.5 million, 62.55 million, and 61.7 million units respectively, representing declines of 19%, 12.5%, and 5% year-on-year [10][11]. - The collective decline of BBA is not a short-term fluctuation but a reflection of the structural challenges posed by the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, which saw a penetration rate nearing 60% in 2025 [11][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market share of domestic brands rose to 65% in 2025, while retail sales of fuel vehicles plummeted by 30%, impacting BBA's traditional stronghold [11][12]. - The loyalty of BBA customers has significantly decreased, with less than 18% of previous BBA buyers indicating they would repurchase from the same brand [15][16]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - New energy vehicle brands like AITO, Li Auto, Tesla, and Xiaomi are capturing a significant portion of the market, with a high percentage of their new customers coming from BBA [16]. - BBA's attempts to maintain market share through price reductions and new model launches may not be sufficient to reverse the trend, as consumer preferences shift towards new energy and smart vehicle technologies [13][20]. Group 4: Future Strategies - In 2026, Audi plans to launch new models on the PPE electric platform, while Benz aims to introduce 15 new vehicles, focusing on enhancing local technological capabilities [17][20]. - BMW's upcoming iX3 model, set to launch in late 2026, will feature advanced electric drive systems and local AI functionalities, which will be crucial for its competitiveness in the new energy market [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Brilliance's net income increased by 15.5% YoY in 1H25, primarily due to a lower comparative base from substantial withholding tax in 1H24, while BBA's earnings declined by 25% YoY, indicating challenges in sustaining high ordinary dividend payouts in the mid-to-long run [1][5]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, Brilliance's net income rose to RMB1.7 billion, reflecting a 15.5% increase YoY [1] - BBA's sales volume decreased by 19.8% YoY to 262,005 units, with revenue falling by 23.1% YoY to RMB85.8 billion [2] - BBA's net profit dropped by 25% YoY to RMB8.2 billion, with earnings per vehicle remaining steady at RMB31,321 and a net margin of 9.6% [2] Operational Challenges - The headquarters business reported an operating loss of RMB131 million in 1H25, a decline from an operating profit of RMB203 million in 1H24, primarily due to increased expenses from the resumption of production at Jinbei Shenyang [3] - The joint venture Yuxin with TCL incurred an investment loss of RMB12 million in 1H25 [3] Dividend Policy and Cash Flow - The company resumed its interim regular dividend, declaring HK$0.8 per share, which exceeded expectations, but cash reserves are diminishing [4] - Cash outflows in 1H25 included special dividend payments of RMB4.7 billion and investments totaling RMB1.2 billion, while cash inflows were driven by BBA regular dividends of EUR510 million (approximately RMB4.2 billion) [4] - As of the end of 1H25, net cash declined to RMB7 billion from RMB10.8 billion at the end of 2024, with projections indicating further decline to RMB5.3 billion by year-end [4] Valuation Adjustments - The 2025-26 net profit forecasts have been revised upward by 2-5% to RMB2.9 billion and RMB2.7 billion, respectively, reflecting BBA's stronger-than-expected profitability [5] - The target price has been adjusted to HK$3.70 based on a 6x 2025 P/E ratio, while maintaining a HOLD rating due to concerns over the sustainability of regular dividends and ongoing losses from new business ventures [5]