Core Insights - Carter's, Inc. (CRI) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 25, with projected revenue growth but a decline in earnings year-over-year [1][11] Revenue Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is $580 million, reflecting a 2.8% increase from the previous year [2] - Strong demand in the baby and toddler categories, along with positive trends in international markets, particularly Canada and Mexico, are expected to contribute to revenue growth [5][4] Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is 43 cents per share, indicating a significant decrease of 43.4% from the same quarter last year [2][11] - The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 39.9%, with the last quarter's earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 24.5% [3] Factors Influencing Performance - Improved online engagement, competitive promotions, and favorable timing of the Easter holiday have positively impacted comparable sales [5][4] - U.S. wholesale sales are projected to increase by 7.2% year-over-year in the second quarter [7] Margin and Profitability Challenges - The company's pricing strategy, which included approximately $12 million in price reductions in the first quarter and plans for an additional $20 million, has pressured gross margins despite supporting sales growth [8][10] - Higher operating costs, including fixed cost deleverages and ongoing investments in digital infrastructure, are expected to constrain profitability, with adjusted operating income predicted to decline by 40.2% year-over-year to $23.6 million [10][11] Valuation Perspective - Carter's is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.39X, which is below both its five-year high of 21.14X and the industry average of 29.33X, indicating an attractive investment opportunity [14] Market Performance - CRI shares have decreased by 15.7% over the past three months, contrasting with a 24% growth in the industry [15]

Core Viewpoint - Carter's, Inc. is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, influenced by challenging macroeconomic conditions and reduced consumer demand [1][3][4]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $621.3 million, reflecting a 6.1% decrease from the previous year [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is 53 cents per share, indicating a 48% decline from the year-ago quarter [2]. - Carter's has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 45.7%, with the last quarter's earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 39% [2]. Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces persistent inflation and high interest rates, which are significant hurdles for its core demographic of families with young children [3]. - Consumer demand for Carter's products has weakened due to reduced discretionary income and the absence of pandemic-era financial support [3]. - The retail segment is expected to experience continued softness in consumer spending, while the wholesale business shows some resilience [4]. Financial Performance Expectations - Carter's projected net sales for the first quarter of 2025 are between $615 million and $625 million, down from $661 million in the previous year [7]. - Adjusted earnings are expected to be between 45 and 55 cents per share, a decline from $1.04 reported in the prior-year quarter [7]. - The company anticipates adjusted operating income of $30 million to $35 million, down from $55 million in the year-ago quarter, with an expected adjusted operating income of $31.4 million, representing a 43% year-over-year decrease [7]. Sales Projections - Total sales in the U.S. Retail business are expected to decline in the mid-single-digit to high-single-digit range [8]. - U.S. Wholesale sales are anticipated to decrease by high-single digits year-over-year, while international sales are expected to dip in the mid-single digits [8]. - Comparable sales in the U.S. Retail business are projected to be down mid- to high-single digits, with a model predicting a 6% decline in U.S. Retail and a 6.9% decline in U.S. Wholesale [8]. Cost and Margin Pressures - The company has been experiencing higher selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) as a percentage of sales, due to fixed cost deleverage from lower sales and increased distribution and transportation costs [5]. - The higher SG&A expense rate is expected to strain operating margins and reduce profitability [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Carter's is focusing on strategic initiatives to improve long-term performance, including enhancing merchandise assortments and refining inventory management [9]. - The company is implementing measures such as improved pricing and optimized inventory management, along with strengthening its e-commerce capabilities [9]. Valuation Perspective - From a valuation standpoint, Carter's is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.89X, which is below its five-year high of 21.14X and the industry average of 21.58X, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors [12]. - CRI's shares have lost 30.5% in the past three months, compared to a 24.5% decline in the industry [13].