Core Insights - The first major derivatives settlement of 2026 involves over $2.2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options, with Bitcoin contracts dominating the notional value at approximately $1.87 billion [2][7] - The settlement is occurring as Bitcoin trades near $88,972, just above the max pain level of $88,000, which is significant for traders monitoring potential volatility [2][7] Open Interest and Market Positioning - Open interest data indicates a bullish market sentiment, with 14,194 call contracts against 6,806 puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.48, suggesting traders are positioning for higher prices [3] - Overall open interest remains high, with 80,957 calls versus 49,998 puts, leading to a put-to-call ratio of 0.62, reinforcing the bullish outlook [4] Ethereum Options and Market Sentiment - Ethereum's options structure reflects cautious optimism, with traders showing less aggressive positioning compared to Bitcoin, indicating a preference for potential upside rather than defensive strategies [5] - The settlement period is critical as it may concentrate price action around max pain levels, benefiting option sellers if prices gravitate toward these strikes [6][5] Implications for Market Volatility - The timing of this settlement is crucial as it may set the tone for market volatility in the upcoming quarter, with historical data suggesting that major options events can act as volatility unlocks [7] - Positioning data shows that Bitcoin block trades are skewed towards calls at 36.4% of volume, while Ethereum's block trade activity is even more pronounced with calls at 73.7%, indicating a strategic long-term positioning [8] Future Outlook - There is sustained interest in Bitcoin options concentrated in later 2026 maturities, particularly for March and June, while Ethereum shows consistent interest across quarterly tenors throughout the year, suggesting a positive outlook for both assets [9]

Core Insights - The crypto markets are experiencing a significant event with over $27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring on Deribit, marking one of the largest structural resets in crypto history [1][4] - Bitcoin options account for $23.6 billion of the expiring total, while Ethereum options make up $3.8 billion, indicating a substantial market activity [2] - The current prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum are approximately $88,596 and $2,956, respectively [2] Group 1: Options Expiry Details - The options expiry is notably higher than previous weeks, coinciding with the last Friday of the month and the year, covering both monthly and quarterly options [2] - Call options dominate the market, outnumbering puts nearly three to one, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders [3] - The "max pain" levels are set at $95,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000 for Ethereum, where options sellers are likely to profit the most [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - This expiry represents over 50% of Deribit's total open interest, making it the largest on record, prompting analysts to consider how the market will react post-expiry [4] - Rollover activity is prevalent as institutions shift positions to January contracts, which may create noise in short-term options data [5] - Despite the size of the event, Bitcoin's implied 30-day volatility index has decreased to around 42%, suggesting a calmer market environment [7]

Group 1: Bitcoin Options Expiry - Over $3.16 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, with Bitcoin accounting for approximately $2.69 billion of this total [1][2] - The current trading price of Bitcoin is $87,194, reflecting a 0.54% increase over the past 24 hours, with a max pain level for expiring options at $88,000 [2] - Open interest data shows a total of 30,815 contracts, with 17,506 call contracts and 13,309 put contracts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.76 [3][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The positioning around the $88,000 level indicates limited upside momentum unless Bitcoin breaks higher, suggesting a range-bound market [4][5] - Analysts note a slightly heavier put positioning, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin could remain contained through the expiry period [5] Group 3: Ethereum Options Expiry - Approximately $473 million in Ethereum options are expiring, with Ethereum trading at $2,928, which is a 3.37% increase in the last 24 hours, and a max pain level of $3,100 [6] - Ethereum's open interest is more evenly split, with 78,524 call contracts and 83,547 puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 1.06 and a total open interest of 162,071 contracts [7] - The positioning for Ethereum is more distributed across strikes, indicating greater uncertainty about the near-term direction, with notable upside interest above $3,400 [8]

Core Insights - Tidal Trust II has filed with the SEC for a Bitcoin ETF aimed at providing exposure during US market closures, amidst concerns of price manipulation and heavy outflows in the spot BTC ETF market [1][6] Group 1: ETF Filing Details - The Form N-1A proposes the addition of two ETFs: Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF, and Nicholas Bitcoin Tail ETF [2] - The AfterDark ETF will not hold Bitcoin directly but will gain exposure through Bitcoin futures, options, and ETFs or ETPs listed in the US [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund aims for long-term capital appreciation by targeting Bitcoin's overnight return profile while holding short-term US Treasuries and cash equivalents during daytime trading [3] - The fund will trade Bitcoin futures during US overnight hours and close positions shortly after the US market opens, while also utilizing Bitcoin options to establish synthetic long positions [4] Group 3: Market Context and Analyst Commentary - Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst noted that a significant portion of Bitcoin's gains occurs during after-hours trading, suggesting that the AfterDark ETF could potentially yield better returns [5] - Industry analysts have raised concerns about price manipulation during US daytime trading, with observed patterns of Bitcoin price drops around market openings [6]

Core Insights - Approximately $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, testing market resilience as open interest and trader positioning reach new records [1][2] - The options expiry is occurring during a period of subdued volatility, with potential implications for market sentiment towards Bitcoin, Ethereum, and broader digital assets [2][8] Options Expiry Details - On October 24, $5.86 billion in options related to Bitcoin and Ethereum will mature at 8:00 UTC on Deribit, with $5.1 billion in Bitcoin options and $754 million in Ethereum options expiring [2][3] - The 'max pain' points for options expiry are identified at $113,000 for Bitcoin and $3,950 for Ethereum, which may influence trader expectations [4] Market Sentiment and Positioning - Current put-to-call ratios are 0.90 for Bitcoin and 0.77 for Ethereum, indicating cautious optimism towards potential price increases, despite near-term uncertainties [5] - Implied volatility is currently around 40 for Bitcoin and 60 for Ethereum, reflecting a pause in extreme price movements [6][7] - There is strong demand for long-dated Ethereum calls extending into 2026, suggesting optimism about Ethereum's long-term prospects [8] Macroeconomic Context - The options expiry coincides with significant macroeconomic events, including key US inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which could impact market dynamics [8] - Analysts warn that unexpected news could lead to renewed volatility in the market [9] Historical Context - Historically, options expiry has led to short-term price swings and volatility spikes, but conditions typically stabilize after the expiry time as traders adjust to the new market environment [10]

Core Insights - The options open interest (OOI) market has reached approximately $108 billion, significantly larger than the futures open interest (FOI) market at $68 billion, indicating a widening gap between the two markets [1][4] - The growth of the options market is attributed to the recent liquidation event that wiped out over $20 billion in FOI, highlighting the impact of leverage in the futures market [4] - The launch of options trading on BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has contributed to the maturation of the bitcoin financial cycle, making IBIT the largest bitcoin options platform [5] Options Market Dynamics - OOI serves various functions such as hedging, delta-neutral strategies, and volatility trading, while a large FOI indicates higher leverage levels, which can exacerbate market stress [2] - The current OOI level is just below its all-time high of $112 billion, while FOI has decreased from its peak of $91 billion, reflecting a structural shift in market dynamics [4] Market Volatility and Risk Management - A growing options market, especially on regulated platforms, is expected to reduce overall market volatility and encourage sophisticated hedging activities [5] - As OOI becomes more dominant, it may lead to volatility compression, potentially cushioning downside risks during bear markets but also resulting in less pronounced price surges during bullish phases [6]

Trading Offering - Bullish 将提供比特币期权交易 [1] - 顶级交易合作伙伴联盟参与 [1] Market Report - @godbole17 报道了此消息 [1]

Core Insights - Bullish, a digital assets platform listed on NYSE and parent company of CoinDesk, is set to launch crypto options trading on October 8 [1] - The options will be margined and settled in USDC, a stablecoin with a market cap of $73.85 billion, and will feature European-style options with expiries from three weeks to three months [2] - The exchange plans to expand its offerings to include options tied to ether and other indices, reflecting a broader industry trend towards increased demand for hedging instruments in the crypto market [3] Company Developments - Bullish is significantly investing in its institutional offerings, evolving from spot trading to include margin, perpetual, and dated futures, culminating in the introduction of options [4] - The new options product aims to provide a comprehensive derivatives suite that enhances capital efficiency and risk mitigation, accessible through a unified trading account [4] Product Features - Options are derivative contracts that allow the holder the right to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price within a specified timeframe, with call options indicating a bullish market stance and put options providing downside protection [5] - The unique aspect of options trading is its ability to facilitate three-dimensional trading, enabling traders to speculate on price direction, volatility, and time to expiration, thus allowing for more tailored risk management strategies [6] Market Collaboration - Bullish's options have been developed in collaboration with leading options market makers, technology providers, and brokers to cater specifically to the needs of institutional investors [7]

Core Insights - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has become the largest venue for bitcoin options, surpassing Deribit, indicating a shift in crypto derivatives trading driven by institutional capital [1][2] - IBIT's open interest in contracts reached nearly $38 billion, compared to Deribit's $32 billion, marking a significant change in market dynamics [1][4] Group 1: Market Position and Growth - IBIT is now the world's largest spot bitcoin ETF with $84 billion in assets, attracting substantial institutional flows and enhancing market liquidity [2] - The growth of IBIT is pulling trading activity into regulated markets, contrasting with the previously dominant offshore venues [2][4] Group 2: Leverage and Speculation - IBIT's leverage ratio has reached 45%, with the ETF holding 770,000 BTC and options open interest at 340,000 BTC, indicating a high level of speculative positioning [3] - Nearly half of IBIT's underlying exposure is reflected in derivatives, raising questions about the true extent of market leverage [3] Group 3: Market Concentration - IBIT now accounts for 45% of global BTC options open interest, while Deribit holds 41.9%, indicating a concentration of nearly 90% of the BTC options market between these two platforms [4] - The data suggests that institutional platforms like CME remain relatively small compared to ETF-driven and retail-dominated venues [4]

JUST IN: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Surpasses Deribit as Top Bitcoin Options Venue. - Bloomberg https://t.co/BZtchW3kiz ...