1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated with an upward trend, and the import window for domestic spot refined copper remained open. The US March composite PMI output index was 51.4, lower than February's 51.9, hitting a new low since April last year. The manufacturing and service industries showed a differentiated trend. The service industry index dropped to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, a two - month high. The market continued to focus on the US - Iran conflict. Trump said that the US - Iran negotiations "might be quite close to reaching an agreement", and Iran agreed to never have nuclear weapons. Reports indicated that the US intended to cease fire for a month and proposed 15 peace negotiation plans. The expectation of a缓和 in the US - Iran attitude was the main factor for the recent improvement in market sentiment, but the US - Iran negotiations and the conflict's direction remained uncertain. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 11,800 tons to 359,275 tons, Comex inventory increased by 681 tons to 533,628 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 11,405 tons to 262,710 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons to 13,911 tons. In terms of demand, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increased after the copper price declined. The US - Iran conflict remained the focus, and there was a seesaw effect between crude oil and copper. The conflict's direction would be the main trading factor in the future, meaning high market volatility still existed. After the copper price quickly declined to release the accumulated risks from the macro - environment and fundamental contradictions, it was expected to enter a shock - bottoming stage with "support at the bottom and lack of upward drive". The core logic was that the macro - suppression was weakening at the margin but not reversed, while the fundamental support was substantially strengthening. The strategy suggested changing from being cautiously bearish to range - bound operation, gradually laying out long positions at key support levels, and paying attention to the copper price performance in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2605 closing at 2,962 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.19%. The open interest increased by 4,909 lots to 236,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2605 closing at 23,810 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.42%. The open interest increased by 5,051 lots to 266,000 lots. Aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly, with the overnight main contract AD2604 closing at 22,855 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.68%. The open interest decreased by 74 lots to 3,979 lots. In the spot market, the SMM alumina price rebounded to 2,757 yuan/ton. The spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed to 140 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 quotation rebounded to 23,440 yuan/ton, with a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Wuxi A00. The processing fees of aluminum rods in many places remained stable, with the processing fee in Nanchang increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The processing fee of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, the processing fee of 6/8 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fee of low - carbon aluminum rods increased by 36 yuan/ton. The support logic of overseas raw material costs was gradually weakening. After the domestic production resumption increment was released, combined with the upcoming large - scale arrival of imported alumina, the inventory was under pressure. The high premium in the futures market accelerated the registration of warehouse receipts, and alumina lost its upward momentum and turned weak. Multiple oil fields in the Middle East were attacked, and energy pressure entered the long - term logic, but the aluminum plant shutdown rhythm did not cause a new supply shock. The market's core contradiction shifted from the high premium of overseas geopolitics to the weak reality of domestic inventory accumulation and slow demand start, as well as the logic of the upward repair of the copper - aluminum ratio. If there was no unexpected disturbance in the geopolitical situation, the aluminum price would be mainly adjusted weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the inventory - depletion inflection point, and new geopolitical variables should be vigilant [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 3.64% to $17,915/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.65% to 140,330 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory increased by 96 tons to 282,888 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 374 tons to 58,006 tons. In terms of the premium, the LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at a discount of 150 yuan/ton. Under the dual effects of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight rates, the nickel ore price continued to strengthen. At the same time, both the weekly nickel iron quotation and transaction price increased, while the first - grade nickel showed great pressure in the weekly social inventory. On the demand side, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the 89 major warehouses of the national mainstream stainless - steel market was 1.1274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32%. There were disturbances on the MHP supply side, but the auxiliary material cost increased, and the transaction coefficient rose. In addition, the output of ternary materials in March was expected to increase by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons. Under the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, there were again disturbances on the supply side. Given the continuous strengthening of the cost side, there might still be short - term long - trading opportunities with reference to the cost line, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. At the same time, there was an expectation of supplementary quotas in July, and the large inventory pressure of first - grade nickel would also put pressure on the nickel price [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price trend, macro - economic data, geopolitical situation, inventory changes, demand situation, and future price trend and strategy suggestions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price trend, spot market situation, raw material cost, inventory pressure, and future price trend and attention points [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price trend, inventory changes, cost situation, demand situation, and future price trend and trading suggestions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes of flat - copper, waste copper, downstream products, and smelting processing fees; inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventory; and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss [4]. - **Lead**: Price changes of lead products, lead - concentrate prices and processing fees, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and import profit and loss [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes of aluminum products, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventory, and import profit and loss [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes of nickel products, nickel - ore and nickel - iron prices, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventory, and import profit and loss [5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes of zinc products, TC, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventory, and import profit and loss [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes of tin products, tin - concentrate prices, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and import profit and loss [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][12][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [22][23][24][25][26][27]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [34][35][36][37][39]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Current position, professional titles, work experience, media interviews, and honors [47]. - **Wang Heng**: Current position, educational background, research direction, honors, work content, and media interviews [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: Current position, educational background, research direction, honors, work content, and media interviews [48].

Core Insights - The market is experiencing mixed volatility, with indicators suggesting potential price movements ahead due to upcoming data releases and market catalysts [3][4][5]. Company Analysis BYU - BYU is currently in a "bounce and fade" setup, following six consecutive weeks of selling, indicating a potential for short covering and subsequent sell-side activity [6][7]. - A trade strategy involves buying a 124 put and selling a 120 put, creating a $4 wide put spread for a $1.70 debit, capitalizing on the current volatility [8][9]. - The stock has seen a significant decline of approximately 16% over the last 30 trading days, with key technical levels identified at 130 and 140 for resistance, and 108 for support [9][10][12]. Jets ETF - The Jets ETF, representing major airlines, is in an oversold condition, with significant sell-side activity halting around the $24 support level [15][17]. - A trade strategy includes buying a 26 call and selling a 29 call for an 80-cent debit, anticipating a reflexive bounce in the near term [19][20]. - Technical analysis highlights the importance of the $24 support level, with potential resistance at $25.71 and further upside targets at $28 to $29 [21][26]. Microsoft - Microsoft is currently trading sideways, but there is a bearish outlook with expectations of a significant break below the $400 level, which could impact the broader S&P 500 [28][29]. - A proposed trade involves a $10 wide put spread, buying 390 puts and selling 380 puts for a $3.23 debit, anticipating a downward move [32][33]. - Technical indicators suggest resistance around the 405 to 408 range, with a critical support area identified between 383 to 404 [37][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the oil market due to conflicting information from U.S. officials regarding military actions in the Middle East, which has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices and raised concerns about the stability of energy supply [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. benchmark crude oil prices experienced a sharp decline of nearly 20% following a misleading post about U.S. naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz, which was later retracted by the White House [1][3]. - The oil market is highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, with prices dropping 12% on a single day, marking the largest daily decline in four years, as traders reacted to mixed signals from U.S. officials [7][12]. - A related exchange-traded fund (ETF) linked to crude oil futures lost $84 million in value within minutes due to the initial misleading information [5]. Group 2: Energy Sector Crisis - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy giants to the brink of crisis, with rising global gasoline and diesel prices becoming a significant issue in the U.S. election year [9]. - Key oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, have cut production, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, exacerbating supply concerns [9]. - Saudi Aramco's CEO warned that prolonged disruptions in energy flow could have catastrophic consequences for the oil market, labeling the current situation as the biggest crisis faced by the oil and gas industry in the region [9]. Group 3: Military and Political Developments - U.S. military actions against Iran are reportedly escalating, with officials indicating a commitment to a decisive approach, despite previous statements suggesting the conflict was nearing resolution [11]. - There is significant partisan division in the U.S. Congress regarding military strategy, with some lawmakers expressing concerns over the lack of clear objectives [11]. - The White House has indicated that rising energy costs are temporary, but ongoing geopolitical risks and mixed messaging may lead to continued market volatility [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened lower and continued to decline, with the software and financial sectors leading the losses [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 821.91 points, a decrease of 1.66%, closing at 48,804.06 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 1.13%, and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 1.04% [1] Group 2 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) surged by 11.05%, indicating increased market volatility [1] - Following the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that the Trump administration's comprehensive tariffs on imported goods were unconstitutional, the White House issued new trade threats, causing uncertainty in trade policies [1] - Investors shifted towards U.S. Treasury bonds for safety, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling by 3.6 basis points to 3.44%, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield decreasing by 5 basis points to 4.03% [1] Group 3 - Nvidia's earnings report is anticipated this Wednesday, as the company holds nearly 8% weight in the S&P 500 Index [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rare divergence, with the S&P 500 index showing stability while individual stocks exhibit significant volatility, indicating potential turmoil ahead [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index has recorded its narrowest trading range since the 1960s, while individual stock volatility is approximately seven times that of the index, marking the largest gap in at least 30 years [1][3] - Investor behavior is being significantly impacted by this unusual market environment, with hedge funds net selling U.S. stocks at the fastest pace since March of last year [1][5] - The current market structure has historical precedents, having appeared before major turning points such as the 2008 financial crisis and the introduction of significant tariffs by Trump [1][4] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly adopting defensive strategies, leading to a reassessment of concentrated positions due to stock and sector-specific sell-offs [5][6] - Evidence of declining investor confidence is mounting, with significant sell-offs prompting many to reconsider the risks associated with high concentration in their portfolios [6] Group 3: AI Impact - The initial bullish sentiment surrounding artificial intelligence has shifted to one of uncertainty, reshaping investment logic from seeking opportunities to avoiding potential collapses [2] - The rapid adoption of AI is seen as surpassing the pace of the internet boom in the late 1990s, leading to unprecedented levels of disruption this year [6] - Concerns regarding AI's impact are affecting major tech companies, with significant declines observed in stocks like Microsoft and Meta since the rotation began last October [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies and External Events - The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (TMEC) is set for a mid-term review in summer 2026, which may increase market volatility due to negotiations over rules of origin [1] - The Bank of Mexico lowered the benchmark interest rate to 7% in December 2025, with expectations of a gradual reduction to around 6.5% in 2026, while inflation is projected to return to the 3% target range by the third quarter [1] - Mexican President López Obrador criticized the US sanctions on Cuba as "unjust" and announced continued humanitarian aid, which may impact expectations regarding US-Mexico relations [1] Group 2: Stock Market Trends - The Mexican automotive industry is facing potential changes as Chinese companies like BYD and Geely are reported to be bidding for the Nissan-Mercedes-Benz plant in Mexico, which could reshape the local automotive manufacturing landscape and indirectly affect related industry stocks [2] - This event, combined with pressures from US tariff policies, has heightened geopolitical uncertainty for Mexican assets [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Economic Observer and other institutions indicate that the Mexican fund market in 2026 will be influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, and a trend of global capital diversification towards emerging markets, which may exert short-term pressure on the peso and capital flows [3] - In the long term, the Mexican government aims to optimize the investment environment through tax reforms, but there are risks associated with fluctuating trade policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman signals a potential shift in the Fed's communication strategy, with expectations of reduced public statements and press conferences, which could lead to increased market volatility [1][2][3] Group 1: Nomination and Expectations - President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve Chair, marking a departure from the previous nomination process that involved public appearances and statements [1] - Warsh's silence following his nomination has raised eyebrows among economists, who see it as indicative of a significant change in the Fed's operational approach [1] Group 2: Communication Strategy - Economists anticipate that Warsh will implement a less frequent communication strategy, diverging from the current practice of regular public statements by Fed officials [2][3] - Morgan Stanley's Michael Gapen noted that a reduction in communication aligns with Warsh's view that the Fed has over-intervened in market dynamics, which may lead to higher market volatility [2] - Ameriprise's Anthony Saglimbene suggested that Warsh's communication style could be more concise and less formal than previous chairs, potentially benefiting the market by reducing confusion [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America indicates that volatility in the gold and silver markets will remain high following a significant drop in precious metal prices from historical highs [1][4]. Group 1: Market Volatility - Current gold price volatility exceeds any period since the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, while silver is experiencing its most severe market turbulence since 1980 [1]. - The recent surge in precious metal prices was driven by speculative interest, geopolitical concerns, and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, but this trend abruptly halted with gold experiencing its largest drop in over a decade and silver facing its worst day on record [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Despite the recent volatility, gold investors remain resilient, although even the most dedicated supporters are feeling uneasy due to the dramatic fluctuations [7]. - Discussions among retail investors on social media platforms reflect a mix of strategies, with some advocating for buying the dip while others express concerns about market overcrowding and the potential for continued volatility [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Financial advisors suggest maintaining a balanced portfolio, with gold and silver holdings recommended to be kept at a relatively small percentage compared to fixed income and equities [8]. - Predictions for gold prices remain optimistic, with Deutsche Bank maintaining a forecast of $6,000 per ounce, while the market's direction will largely depend on Asian investors and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran [8][9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Advisors expect lower interest rates and ongoing international unrest to support gold prices, but caution investors to prepare for potential price corrections that could create attractive entry points [9]. - Some financial planners express skepticism about gold and silver as investments, citing their historical volatility and lower returns compared to stocks, advising clients to consider selling if they already hold these assets [9][10].

Core Insights - The US dollar has strengthened significantly this week, particularly impacting currencies sensitive to commodity prices, following a sharp decline in gold and silver prices [4] - The market's reaction to the volatility in precious metals reflects a heightened demand for safe-haven currencies and rapid shifts in investor sentiment [4] - The recent rebound of the dollar was unexpected for some investors, as short positions on the dollar had dominated the market last month [4] Group 1 - The dollar's rise is linked to a notable drop in gold, which experienced its largest single-day decline in over a decade, and silver, which saw an intraday drop of 16% [4] - The strengthening of the dollar is further supported by technical factors and capital flows, with increased expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [5] - The volatility in precious metals and currency markets has surpassed that of the stock market, indicating ongoing impacts from risk aversion and policy uncertainty [5] Group 2 - The current scenario of a strong dollar and pressured precious metals suggests a structural adjustment in global financial markets, with policy news and commodity price changes continuing to dictate market dynamics [5] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in their strategies to navigate potential volatility, while closely monitoring Federal Reserve policy changes and supply-demand dynamics in the commodity markets [5]

Core Insights - The volatility in the U.S. stock market is significantly lower compared to other asset classes, with gold and oil experiencing notable fluctuations [1] - Geopolitical risks are driving increased volatility in commodities and currencies, while stock market volatility remains concentrated at the individual stock level [1][2] - Gold has seen a remarkable rise in 2026, achieving its largest monthly gain since 1999, despite a recent sharp decline [1][2] Group 1: Market Volatility - U.S. stock market volatility is subdued, while gold and oil markets are experiencing heightened fluctuations [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains below its one-year average, indicating low overall market volatility despite individual stock movements [1] - The divergence in stock price movements has led to a decrease in overall volatility metrics, with individual stocks like Microsoft showing significant price drops [2] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold's recent performance has been characterized by a significant increase in both spot prices and volatility, with a record inflow into gold ETFs [2] - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has attracted over $20 billion in the past eight months, reflecting strong investor interest [2] - The implied volatility of GLD has reached historical highs relative to the S&P 500, indicating a strong demand for bullish bets on gold [2] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar has faced significant downward pressure, particularly against the Japanese yen, following geopolitical developments and comments from President Trump [4][5] - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has led to a more stable bond market, with investors showing interest in shorting long-term bond volatility [5] - Despite low implied volatility in the bond market, there is a narrowing path for potential U.S. interest rate cuts, as indicated by options on secured overnight financing rates (SOFR) [5]