【要闻速递】 今日周五（10月10日）亚盘时段，在周三的交易中，金价一举刷新历史纪录，触及全新高点。受此影 响，短线期货交易者纷纷选择获利了结。与此同时，美国政府陷入停摆困境，加之诸多不确定的地缘政 治风险交织，使得市场对贵金属的避险情绪持续高涨，这无疑将在短期内为贵金属价格构筑有力支撑。 具体来看，12月交割的黄金期货合约价格于盘中下挫70.8美元，最终报收于3999.7美元，较现货金价格 高出十余美元。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 地缘方面，以色列与哈马斯接近停火。双方在埃及斡旋下达成协议，以释放巴人质换以军分阶段撤离加 沙至缓冲区，并增加援助物资，为结束两年战争迈出关键一步。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从技术面来看，12月黄金期货多头在短期内拥有显著的整体技术优势。多头的下一个上行价格目标是推 动期货收盘价突破4100.00美元的关键阻力位。空头的下一个短期下行价格目标是将期货价格压至 3850.00美元的关键技术支撑位下方。第一阻力位见于4081.00美元的历史高点，其次为4100.00美元；第 一支撑位见于4019.20美元的隔夜低点，其次为4000.00美元。 美联储FOMC会议纪要披露，今 ...

美国政府提出，此次"停摆"可能导致大量岗位"不可逆转地"裁撤。美国罗申美会计师事务所首席经济学 家乔·布鲁苏埃拉斯表示，此类大规模裁员一旦出现，必将影响美国消费市场，需求减弱会影响欧洲对 美出口，其中尤其或加大德国工业企业的经营压力。 同时，"停摆"会导致大量经济数据延期甚至取消发布，这其中不仅包括与美国经济紧密相关的就业、物 价等数据，也包括美国国际贸易形势、进出口价格趋势等。数据缺失预期给不少外国企业在美国市场的 运营带来不确定性。 如何影响金融市场？ "停摆"释放出体制失调、政治不稳的信号，会加剧投资者对风险的担忧。短期内，黄金等非美避险资产 价格上涨，金融市场动荡；一旦"停摆"持续较长时间，叠加其他不确定性因素，市场担忧很有可能演变 为恐慌。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 当地时间1日零时起，美国联邦政府时隔近七年再"停摆"，部分公共服务被暂停或延迟，经济数据发布 也将受影响。 不少分析人士表示，"停摆"不仅给美国经济带来负面影响，也将给全球市场带来连锁反应，波及全球贸 易、金融稳定，动摇市场对美国经济治理能力的信心。 如何影响国际贸易？ "停摆"期间，海关 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown, which is expected to negatively impact the U.S. economy and create ripple effects in global markets, affecting trade and financial stability [1] Impact on International Trade - Customs will remain open, but many technical staff will be on unpaid leave, leading to delays in documentation and inspections, particularly affecting perishable goods and pharmaceuticals [2] - The last shutdown caused a 15% to 20% increase in cargo dwell time at major ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach [2] - Trade merchants will face difficulties in obtaining import and export licenses due to insufficient personnel, halting new certifications and approvals [2] - The potential for irreversible job cuts during the shutdown could weaken U.S. consumer demand, impacting European exports, especially for German industrial firms [2] - Economic data releases will be delayed or canceled, creating uncertainty for foreign businesses operating in the U.S. market [2] Impact on Financial Markets - The shutdown signals systemic dysfunction and political instability, increasing investor risk aversion and leading to a rise in prices for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Historical data shows that shutdowns typically lead to a significant increase in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, indicating heightened market volatility [3] - Companies directly or indirectly associated with the U.S. government are likely to see their stock prices pressured [3] - The current high valuations in global asset markets leave little room for error, making the shutdown a negative event that could suppress global market risk appetite [3] - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to further declines in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in dollar-denominated assets, affecting global markets [3] Impact on Confidence in the U.S. - The shutdown reveals flaws in the U.S. governance system, undermining confidence in the U.S. economic management capabilities, which could have long-term implications for the global economic order [4] - Standard & Poor's Global indicates that while a short-term shutdown may not affect the U.S. sovereign credit rating, each week of shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% [4] - Concerns about U.S. government credibility and fiscal health are heightened due to the shutdown [4] Impact on Europe - The shutdown is expected to have a nonlinear impact on the European economy, with potential GDP losses of €4 billion for a two-week shutdown and €16 billion for an eight-week shutdown [5] - The situation exacerbates existing global economic uncertainties, with potential for significant economic repercussions if the shutdown continues [5]

Group 1 - Asian stock markets rose on Monday, driven by the upward momentum in US stocks and easing concerns over the Bank of Japan's policy [1][6] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1% at 45,493.66 points, while the South Korean Seoul Composite Index rose 0.7% to 3,468.65 points [6] - The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.14% [6][13] Group 2 - The announcement by Trump regarding comprehensive reforms to the H-1B visa program has introduced new uncertainties for the global tech industry and companies reliant on foreign talent [1][10] - The proposed application fee of $100,000 could significantly impact US companies, particularly tech firms in California, and the Indian IT sector valued at $280 billion [10][11] Group 3 - Despite policy uncertainties, global stock markets remain at record levels, with discussions of a potential market bubble entering the dialogue [11] - Evercore ISI estimates a 25% chance of a bubble scenario where the S&P 500 could reach 9,000 points by the end of 2026, with a base case prediction of 7,750 points [11] - Bloomberg strategists believe that the profitability of tech companies is sufficient to absorb any sudden increases in visa fees [11] Group 4 - Gold prices continued to rise, with a 5-minute increase of $5.96 per ounce, reaching a new high of $3,714.37 per ounce [2][6] - Silver prices rose by 1.48% to $43.75 [5][6] - Cryptocurrency markets saw declines, with Bitcoin down over 2%, Ethereum nearly 7%, Dogecoin close to 11%, and Cardano over 8% [9][10]

全球最大资产管理公司认为，即使金价突破每盎司3600美元，黄金仍具有巨大价值，并可能继续成为投 资者宝贵的多元化配置工具。 贝莱德全球配置团队董事总经理兼投资组合经理拉斯·科斯特里奇（Russ Koesterich）在最新评论中重申 了对黄金的看涨观点，但对此立场添加了新的注脚。 "短期内或有理由将配置比例提高至该区间的上限。如果波动性如秋季通常表现那样上升，黄金往往会 出现相对于股票的强劲表现，"他称。 在今年这个极度波动且充满经济与地缘政治不确定性的时期，科斯特里奇指出，广泛衡量市场恐慌情绪 的VIX指数最近已跌破15点，创下2月以来最低水平。 "即使是股市波动性的小幅上升也可能利好黄金。回顾过去十五年，黄金相对于股票的表现与隐含波动 率的周度或月度变化之间存在非常一致的关系，"他表示，"历史数据显示，波动率飙升20%通常伴随黄 金平均每周超额收益达3%；在VIX指数罕见飙升50%或以上的情况下，黄金平均超额收益超过5%。" 在年初令人失望的开局之后，标普500指数动能已逐渐增强，该指数近期重返历史高点。尽管科斯特里 奇仍看好股票，但他补充称，随着波动性大幅下降，市场风险正在累积。 "自5月以来，投资者重 ...

智通财经APP注意到，就在美联储会议和 5 万亿美元季度的季度三巫日事件笼罩股市，波动性交易员也正密切关注即将发布的就业数据。 市场普遍预期美联储将于周三降息，而股票、交易所交易基金(ETF)及指数的季度期权将于周五到期——一些分析师认为此举将清空做市商头寸。虽然这些 事件通常对押注市场波动加剧的交易员颇具吸引力，但此次他们预计波动性不会立即回归。 由于25个基点的降息已被市场完全定价，投资者将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的鸽派或鹰派言论。更重要的是，市场焦点将转向就业数据， 以寻找央行降息速度与深度的线索。 在美国每周失业救济人数跃升至近四年高点后，若就业数据进一步恶化，可能推动加快降息步伐。虽然这短期内或提振市场，但会增加抛售风险。 OptionMetrics量化研究主管加勒特·德西蒙指出："历史表明，特别是在紧急降息期间，日内市场回报通常为正，但中期回报往往转为负值，因为市场将降息 解读为经济急剧恶化的信号。" 美联储会议日标普 500 指数价格波动 根据花旗集团数据，期权市场定价显示10月3日美国非农就业报告公布日预计波动幅度为0.78%，美联储利率决议日(周三)预计波动幅度为0.72%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, hedge funds reduced their positions in August and remain hesitant to re-enter the U.S. stock market in September [3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - Historically, September is one of the most challenging months for U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones average declining by 1.1% since 1897 and a less than 50% chance of positive returns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [5]. - In August, the Dow Jones index rose by 3.2%, marking the best August since 2020, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively. The Russell 2000 index saw a significant rise of 7%, the best August in 25 years [6]. Group 2: Institutional Caution and Risks - Multiple structural concerns are causing institutions to remain cautious, including heavy valuations and positions. UBS predicts that by 2025, retail investors' direct stock holdings will reach 265% of their disposable income, exceeding the 243% peak in 2021 [8]. - There is a risk of cross-market interest rate linkage, with high yields on 30-year government bonds in Japan and the UK indicating increased pressure in the bond market. A crisis in one market could lead to adjustments in others, as seen in the global asset adjustments following Japan's unexpected rate hike in August 2024 [8]. - Systematic hedge funds are nearing saturation in risk exposure, with a narrower "buffer zone" compared to previous years, particularly as volatility typically rises in the fall [8]. Group 3: Upcoming Influences - The U.S. stock market's short-term trajectory will be influenced by the upcoming non-farm payroll data for August and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [9]. - While the probability of a rate cut has increased, the key uncertainty lies in whether this will be a dovish or hawkish cut, depending on forthcoming inflation and employment data [9].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming two weeks will be critical for the continuation of the global bull market, with key U.S. economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [2][4] Economic Data Releases - The monthly non-farm payroll report will be released on September 5, with economists expecting an addition of approximately 75,000 jobs [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be published on September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's policy decision and economic forecasts on September 17 [5][6] Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index recently reached a historical high of 6501.58 points, with a year-to-date increase of 9.8% and a 30% rise since the low on April 8 [2][5] - Despite the market reaching new highs, there is a notable lack of volatility, with the VIX index only breaching the 20-point level once since late June [2][7] Valuation Concerns - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 is at 22 times, making it one of the most expensive periods since the internet bubble and the post-COVID tech stock surge [2][7] - Investors are increasingly worried about the overvaluation of the S&P 500 as it continues to rise [7][8] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among Wall Street bulls regarding the unusual calm in the market, which historically precedes spikes in volatility [7] - A recent survey indicates that investor optimism towards U.S. stocks has reached its highest level since February, with cash holdings at a historical low of 3.9% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming two weeks will be critical for the continuation of the global bull market, with significant U.S. economic data releases including non-farm payrolls, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1][2] Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - The key events will start with the monthly non-farm payroll report on September 5, where economists expect approximately 75,000 new jobs to be added [3] - Following this, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on September 11, and the Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision and economic forecasts on September 17 [5] - The market is currently pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve during this meeting [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Concerns - The S&P 500 index recently recorded its smallest monthly gain since July 2024 and is approaching historically weak performance in September [1] - Despite the market reaching new highs, the unusual calmness is raising concerns among Wall Street optimists, as the VIX index has only breached the 20-point level once since late June [1][9] - The S&P 500 index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, making it one of the most expensive periods since the internet bubble peak and the post-COVID tech stock surge [1][13] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among Wall Street bulls regarding the market's unusual calmness in the face of seasonal weakness [10] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has averaged a decline of 0.7% in September, with four out of the last five years experiencing monthly declines [11] - Fundstrat Global Advisors' Thomas Lee suggests that investors should remain cautious in September, predicting a potential 5% to 10% decline in the S&P 500 index before a rebound towards 6,800 to 7,000 points by year-end [12] Group 4: Valuation and Cash Positioning - Investors are increasingly worried about the overvaluation of the S&P 500 index, with a current P/E ratio of 22 [13] - Financial experts suggest holding cash in anticipation of a market correction, despite the underlying support for the market from resilient economic conditions and strong corporate profit growth [14] - According to a recent Bank of America survey, investor optimism towards U.S. equities has reached its highest level since February, with cash holdings at a historical low of 3.9% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls and inflation reports, may lead to market volatility, with analysts predicting a potential 5%-10% correction in the S&P 500 index due to seasonal weakness and overvaluation concerns [1][2][10]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - The next 14 trading days will see the release of significant economic indicators, starting with the non-farm payroll report on September 5, where economists expect approximately 75,000 new jobs [3][4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's policy decision on September 17, where a 90% probability of a rate cut is currently priced in by the swap market [4][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Concerns - The S&P 500 index recently recorded its smallest monthly gain since July 2024 and is approaching historically weak performance in September, which has averaged a decline of 0.7% over the past 30 years [2][9]. - Despite the S&P 500 reaching a record high of 6501.58 points on August 28, the market is experiencing an unusual calm, with the VIX index showing minimal volatility since late June [2][11]. Group 3: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 stands at 22 times, making it one of the most expensive periods since the dot-com bubble and the post-COVID tech rally [11]. - Investor sentiment towards U.S. equities is at its highest level since February, with cash holdings at a historical low of 3.9%, indicating a strong bullish outlook despite valuation concerns [13].