Core Viewpoint - Ryanair has raised its full-year growth forecast due to a 4% increase in average fares and a 9% rise in revenue, expecting fares to exceed their 7% growth target by 1 to 2% driven by strong consumer demand [1]. Financial Performance - Average fares increased by approximately 4% in the third quarter, while revenue grew by 9% [1]. - Full-year fare guidance has been adjusted from a 7% growth target to an 8% to 9% growth target [6]. - Full-year traffic guidance has been revised from 207 million passengers to 208 million passengers [6]. Market Dynamics - The airline industry is experiencing a supply constraint, which is contributing to higher airfares. Delays in aircraft deliveries have impacted the overall supply [7]. - The current delivery schedule for aircraft is not expected to significantly change the capacity outlook for summer 2026 [9]. Competitive Landscape - Ryanair's public feud with Elon Musk over the refusal to install Starlink's Wi-Fi has inadvertently boosted ticket sales, with a reported increase of 2% to 3% in bookings over the last five days [4]. - The CEO of Ryanair expressed gratitude towards Musk for the publicity generated from their feud, which has led to a significant increase in ticket sales [3][4].

Core Insights - Ryanair's first half net profit exceeded estimates, prompting an increase in the 2026 passenger forecast [1] - The airline experienced a 3% increase in passenger traffic year-over-year, reaching 119 million passengers in the first half [2] - Cost management was effective, with costs per passenger rising only 1% despite significant increases in air traffic control charges and environmental costs [3] Passenger Traffic and Forecast - Ryanair expects to finish the year with approximately 207 million passengers, slightly above the initial target of 206 million, representing a 3.5% increase [4][5] - The airline is cautious about fare increases in the second half, not expecting the same growth rates as in the first half [5][6] Aircraft and Capacity - Ryanair has an order book of 206 Boeing Max 8200 aircraft, with 204 already received, and expects to receive the remaining six by February next year [7][8] - The airline anticipates a growth in passenger capacity to 215 million by summer, with plans to grow to 300 million passengers annually by FY34 [8] Market Dynamics - The European airline market is experiencing capacity constraints, with ongoing issues related to Pratt & Whitney engines and consolidation among carriers [10][11] - Ryanair's cost per passenger is significantly lower than competitors, allowing it to capture market share from weaker airlines [12] - Airports are actively seeking growth opportunities with Ryanair, which is expanding in various regions including Sweden, Italy, and Morocco [13]