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无强制评级后信评格局生变:主体评级和债项评级数量倒挂,灰色操作模式初现
Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of mandatory credit ratings in China's bond market has led to a significant shift in the operations of credit rating agencies, with a notable increase in the number of issuer ratings compared to bond ratings, indicating a market-driven approach to credit assessment [1][2][5]. Group 1: Changes in Credit Rating Practices - Since the removal of mandatory ratings, the number of issuer ratings has increased significantly, with 2,787 issuer ratings in Q4 2023, a 64.81% year-on-year increase, surpassing the 2,744 bond products rated in the same period [1]. - In 2023, the total number of issuer ratings reached 10,707, which is on par with the number of bond ratings, indicating a shift in focus towards issuer assessments [1]. - The number of bonds rated without a bond rating has risen sharply, with 15,944 such bonds issued in 2024, accounting for 63.74% of the total, compared to 5,768 bonds (59.85%) in 2021 [4]. Group 2: Cost Implications for Issuers - Despite the removal of mandatory ratings, issuers have not seen a significant reduction in rating costs, as investors still require credit ratings for compliance purposes [2]. - Rating agencies have adjusted their fee structures, leading to higher overall costs for issuers, particularly for those with longer-term bonds that require annual issuer rating fees [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Rating Agency Operations - The shift towards issuer ratings has resulted in a "reverse" situation where the number of issuer ratings exceeds that of bond ratings for several major rating agencies [5][6]. - Major rating agencies have reported varying numbers of issuer and bond ratings, with some agencies issuing significantly more issuer ratings than bond ratings, reflecting the changing market demand [6][7]. - The trend of bundling ratings for multiple entities under a single issuer has emerged, allowing agencies to charge higher fees and potentially inflate issuer ratings [2][9]. Group 4: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The regulatory environment is evolving, with the China Interbank Market Dealers Association encouraging issuers to select multiple rating agencies to enhance the credibility of ratings through cross-verification [8]. - As of the end of 2024, 965 issuers had received ratings from two or more agencies, with a 6.42% inconsistency rate in ratings, indicating ongoing challenges in rating standardization [9]. Group 5: Future Directions for Rating Agencies - Leading rating agencies are focusing on expanding their international business and investor services, enhancing their influence in global markets and providing consulting services to investors [10].