BloombergTrades focused on Latin American currencies are among the top performers. The Brazilian real, for instance, has already returned 4.5% so far in 2026, building on last year’s 23.5%. The country’s interest rates are at 15% even though inflation has slowed toward the central bank’s target range. The Mexican peso’s carry trade has returned 4.3% this year, with Deutsche Bank maintaining a bullish stance on the currency.Citi strategists too are among those recommending buying the real against the dollar ...

Emerging-market assets and precious metals are extending a storming start to 2026 as tensions between the US and Europe weigh on the dollar and re-energize diversification flows around the world. Most Read from Bloomberg The MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index rose for a second day Friday and notched a fifth straight week of gains — its longest winning streak since May. The gauge is up about 7% this year, outpacing the S&P 500’s roughly 1% advance. Asian technology shares have underpinned the rally, whi ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Thursday closed up +0.22 (+1.49%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +4.80 (+1.14%). Sugar prices settled higher on Thursday after a rally in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) to a 2.25-month high against the dollar prompted short covering in sugar futures.  The stronger real discourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart An excessively long position in London ICE white sugar futures could exacerbate any price decline.  La ...

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.22 (+1.48%), reaching a 2-week high, while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +4.30 (+1.01%), achieving a 1-week high [1] - The recent rally in sugar prices is attributed to the strengthening of the Brazilian real, which discourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers [1] Production Increases - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, with a reported +8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Sugar Surplus Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [4] India’s Production Impact - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while also reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [5]

Group 1 - Currencies from Brazil, South Africa, and Mexico outperformed other emerging-market currencies as trade concerns eased, with thin trading volumes due to the US bond market being closed for a holiday [1] - Investor appetite for riskier assets increased, with the Brazilian real and South African rand each climbing 1.3%, supported by higher commodity prices and indications of potential trade negotiations between the US and China [2][3] - The Chilean peso and Peruvian sol also performed well as copper prices rose, with China's imports of copper and iron ore reaching their highest levels this year in September [4] Group 2 - Despite a rebound in the Brazilian real after a nearly 3% selloff, it is expected to remain under pressure due to fiscal concerns related to government efforts to expand social benefits ahead of 2026 [5] - Currencies from Eastern Europe faced pressure, influenced by the common currency and political instability in France, while the Israeli shekel lagged due to expectations of a peace deal with Hamas [6]

Core Insights - The yen has weakened significantly, reaching 152.34 against the dollar and a record low against the euro, following Sanae Takaichi's unexpected victory as the new leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party [2][4] - Market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike have diminished, with a 25% chance of a move at the BOJ's upcoming meeting, down from 57% prior to the leadership vote [5] Currency Performance - The yen's depreciation has sparked renewed interest in the carry trade strategy, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies [5] - Bank of America has revised its forecast for the yen to end the year at 155 per US dollar, up from a previous estimate of 153, citing increased political and fiscal risks [6] Market Reactions - Hedging costs against further yen depreciation have surged, with premiums for hedging now at their highest level in over three years [7] - Analysts from ING noted that the new government under Takaichi is expected to influence a stronger economy, leading to a steeper yield curve and an equity rally [5]