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Mizuho's Jared Holz talks Insmed sinking double digits on sinus drug trial news
Youtube· 2025-12-18 23:09
Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant drop in stock price after discontinuing the development of a drug for chronic sinusitis, which failed to meet trial endpoints, despite a year-to-date increase of 141% and a market cap exceeding $35 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Development and Market Impact - The discontinued drug was expected to generate sales of approximately $3 to $5 billion, with some estimates as high as $5 billion [3][4]. - The company still holds optimism for another drug, Brenzo, which is projected to achieve close to $10 billion in sales despite the recent setback [7]. - The probability of success for the next indication, a rare skin disease, is considered low, below 30% [6]. Group 2: Acquisition and Future Prospects - The recent acquisition of an antibody was seen as an attempt to bolster the pipeline, although it raised questions due to the timing of the announcement [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current stock price pullback to $165 presents a potential buying opportunity, with models indicating that the valuation is not excessive [10]. - Future growth is anticipated to be more modest, with expectations of a 20% to 30% increase rather than the previous year's 140% [11].