Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has expanded its partnership with Stripe, becoming the first buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider integrated into Stripe Terminal, enhancing its presence in physical retail locations [1][9] - The integration allows customers to select Affirm at checkout, facilitating purchases from $35 to $30,000 with flexible repayment terms [2][3] - This partnership is significant as over 80% of retail spending occurs in physical stores, providing Affirm an opportunity to penetrate in-person transactions [3] Company Performance - Affirm's transaction volume surged 45.6% year over year to 31.3 million in the last reported quarter, indicating strong growth potential from the new partnership [4] - The stock has gained 27.6% year to date, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [7] - Affirm trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.23X, higher than the industry average of 5.84, reflecting a premium valuation [10] Industry Context - Competitors like PayPal and Block are also expanding their BNPL services, with PayPal's total payment volume growing 6% to $443.5 billion and Block's BNPL gross merchandise value increasing 17% year over year to $9.11 billion [5][6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a 103% improvement year over year, indicating strong future growth expectations [12]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is focused on reinventing payments through a diverse merchant network, which has grown to approximately 358,000 active merchants as of March 31, 2025, up from around 292,000 the previous year [1][10] Merchant Network and Partnerships - The merchant partners of Affirm span various industries, including fashion, electronics, travel, and home and lifestyle, utilizing Affirm's buy now, pay later (BNPL) solutions to enhance average order values and customer conversion rates [2] - Recent partnerships include collaborations with Shopmonkey and Xsolla, extending payment solutions to auto repairs and game developers, while partnerships with Williams-Sonoma and KAYAK facilitated entry into the Canadian market [3] Financial Performance - In the first nine months of fiscal 2025, Affirm's gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached $26.3 billion, reflecting a 36% year-over-year increase, with expectations for fiscal 2025 GMV to be between $35.7 billion and $36 billion, indicating a 34.8% rise at the midpoint [5][10] - Merchant network revenues improved by 30% year-over-year during the same period [10] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors in the BNPL space include PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Sezzle Inc. (SEZL), with PayPal reporting over 36 million merchants globally and a 1% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.8 billion [6][7] - Sezzle's merchant base exceeds 40,000 businesses, with total revenues more than doubling year-over-year to $104.9 million, supported by a 64.1% rise in GMV [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Affirm's stock has surged 132.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 41.2% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 5.61, which is below the industry average of 5.88 [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a 101.8% improvement from the previous year, with revenue growth projected at 37% year-over-year [14]

Company Overview and Mission - Sezzle's mission is to financially empower the next generation by enabling merchants to offer customer-friendly credit alternatives [11, 12, 13] - The company aims to provide flexible, reliable, transparent, and secure services to both merchants and consumers [14] - Sezzle highlights its commitment to trust, financial freedom, technology, and the future [16, 17, 18, 19] - Sezzle is transitioning to a Public Benefit Corporation, focusing on purpose-driven actions and benefits for all stakeholders [20] Growth and Market Opportunity - Sezzle experienced triple-digit year-over-year growth in revenue, consumers, and merchants in 2018, 2019, and Q1 2020 [24] - The company operates in large retail markets: US (over $5.4 trillion), Canada ($461.1 billion), and Australia ($215 billion) [25] - Sezzle has over 1.3 million active consumers and over 14.9K active merchants [28] 2019 Performance Highlights - Sezzle completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) at A$1.22 per CDI on July 29, 2019 [30] - The company secured a $100 million credit facility in November 2019, maturing in May 2022 [30] - There was significant growth in 2019, including a 775% increase in merchant fees, a 685% increase in merchant sales, and a 489% increase in active consumers [30] COVID-19 Impact and Response - Sezzle implemented a mandatory work-from-home policy and suspended business travel for employees [76] - The company expanded fee forgiveness and payment flexibility programs for consumers [77] - Sezzle highlights the potential positive impact of the US government's stimulus measures on its stakeholders [81] 2020 Momentum - In May, Underlying Merchant Sales (UMS) surged 321% year-over-year [93] - Active Customers rose 326% year-over-year in May [93]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) shares have increased by 145.7% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 35.1% and the S&P 500's gain of 12.3% [2] - The company's strong performance is attributed to product innovation, strategic execution, and an expanding base of consumers and merchants [2] Financial Performance - In fiscal Q3 2025, 94% of transactions were from repeat customers, indicating the success of Affirm's short-term payment plans [7] - Total transactions rose by 45.6% year-over-year to 31.3 million in the last reported quarter [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a 101.8% year-over-year improvement to 3 cents per share, with fiscal 2026 earnings expected to reach 73 cents [14] Business Strategy - Affirm is focusing on driving repeat usage as a sustainable growth strategy, which is more cost-effective than customer acquisition [6] - The company is expanding its merchant mix to include essential categories like food, travel, and subscriptions, enhancing daily engagement [8] - Affirm is scaling operations internationally, with plans to enter France, Germany, and the Netherlands through a partnership with Shopify [10] Product Development - Affirm's model provides value to merchants by reducing cart abandonment and increasing average order value, while offering consumers flexible payment options [12] - The company is investing in debit solutions and B2B tools to broaden its product ecosystem and increase transaction frequency [13] Market Position - Affirm is trading at 5.68X forward 12-month sales, slightly below the industry average of 5.85X, but above its three-year median of 3.59X [15] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with legacy players like PayPal and Block expanding aggressively in the BNPL space [20]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has partnered with Shopmonkey to become the default pay-over-time option for auto repair customers in the U.S. and Canada, allowing customers to split repair costs into manageable payments, sometimes at 0% APR, with no hidden fees [1][2][9] - This partnership provides Affirm access to a large network of small and mid-sized auto shops, expanding its presence in the auto repair spending category, which averages nearly $800 per year per car owner [2][9] - The collaboration is expected to boost Affirm's transaction volume and customer base, with total transactions growing 45.6% year-over-year to 31.3 million in the last reported quarter [3][9] Company Performance - Affirm handled over $33 billion in gross merchandise volume over the past year, enhancing brand trust and visibility by aligning with practical, recurring expenses [4] - Affirm's merchant network now exceeds 358,000 members, further expanding its reach in the market [4][9] - Year-to-date, Affirm's shares have gained 8.8%, underperforming the broader industry but outperforming the S&P 500 Index [7] Valuation and Estimates - Affirm trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 5.44X, slightly below the industry average of 5.80 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 earnings implies a 101.8% improvement year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential [13]

Core Insights - Walmart's fintech startup OnePay is launching new credit cards in partnership with Synchrony, marking a shift from its previous relationship with Capital One [1][2] - The Walmart card program previously had 10 million customers and approximately $8.5 billion in outstanding loans [3] Company Developments - OnePay was established by Walmart in 2021 with Ribbit Capital and will manage the customer experience through its mobile app [2] - Walmart ended its exclusive partnership with Capital One in 2023, leading to a lawsuit against the bank to expedite the exit [2] Industry Trends - OnePay's strategy to partner with established players like Synchrony and Klarna indicates a trend of fintech companies leveraging existing financial institutions to scale quickly [3][4] - The collaboration with Klarna for buy now, pay later loans further emphasizes OnePay's approach to expanding its financial services offerings [4]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is experiencing stock momentum due to product innovation, an expanding customer base, and strategic initiatives in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector [1] - The stock has surpassed its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a potential uptrend, closing at $54.33, which is 34.2% below its 52-week high of $82.53, suggesting significant upside potential [1][2] Performance Overview - Over the past month, AFRM shares increased by 6.5%, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 6.3% gain but lagging behind the industry average of 13.7% [5] - Major competitors in the BNPL space, such as PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Block, Inc. (XYZ), saw gains of 7% and 35%, respectively [5] Growth Drivers - A notable 94% of transactions in the fiscal third quarter were from repeat users, indicating strong brand loyalty and potential for stable revenue [9] - Affirm is expanding into everyday consumer categories, exemplified by a partnership with World Market, which aims to enhance consistent usage [9] - The company is also broadening its international presence, having entered the U.K. market and planning to expand into Western Europe through Shopify, supported by over 358,000 merchant partners [10] Valuation and Financial Projections - Affirm's forward 12-month sales multiple of 4.51X is lower than the industry average of 5.56X, indicating it is undervalued compared to peers [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 100.6% year-over-year improvement in fiscal 2025 earnings to $0.01 per share, with fiscal 2026 earnings expected to reach $0.70 [15] - Revenue projections for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are anticipated to grow by 37% and 23.7%, respectively, with fourth-quarter revenue estimates between $815-$845 million and Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) between $9.4-$9.7 billion [15] Challenges and Competitive Landscape - As of March 31, 2025, Affirm had $1.9 billion in funding debt, with a long-term debt-to-capital ratio of 71.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.3% [16] - Operating expenses have been increasing, with a rise of 76.6% in fiscal 2022, 25.9% in fiscal 2023, and 5.4% in fiscal 2024, necessitating effective cost management to protect margins [17] - The BNPL market is becoming increasingly competitive, with rivals like PayPal, Klarna, and Block expanding their offerings, which may challenge Affirm's merchant retention efforts [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PayPal processed $1.7 trillion in volumes last year, indicating a significant scale in the ecommerce market [3] - Transaction margin has turned positive and has been growing for the last four quarters, reversing a trend of flat to negative growth [10] - Venmo grew over 20% in the last quarter, showcasing strong growth in customer engagement and monetization [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Branded checkout growth is in the mid-single digits, with branded experiences nearing high single digits [5] - The unbranded business has turned positive, indicating successful repricing and value-added services [11] - PayPal's offline product has seen 4 million debit card customers since its launch, with users transacting six times more than online-only users [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen shifts in advertising spend from the U.S. to Europe due to macroeconomic factors [4] - PayPal maintains a leading position in both the U.S. and international markets, with a significant share of ecommerce transactions [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovation and has restructured its leadership team to drive transformation [8] - PayPal is prioritizing agentic commerce, aiming to facilitate seamless transactions through intelligent agents [17] - The strategy includes enhancing the branded business with personalized offers and rewards to differentiate from competitors [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a dynamic market environment but emphasizes stable trends and positive customer growth [5] - The company is optimistic about achieving 10% transaction margin dollar growth and 20% EPS growth in the long term [100] - Management highlights the importance of consumer behavior shifts towards agentic purchasing as a future growth driver [25] Other Important Information - PayPal has launched a partnership with Perplexity to drive branded PayPal and Venmo checkout [24] - The company is leveraging its extensive consumer data to create personalized shopping experiences for merchants [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key milestones or areas investors should monitor for confidence in PayPal's growth outlook? - Management emphasizes the importance of consumer growth and the momentum from recent innovations as indicators of future success [102] Question: Why is the current focus on the SMB market important? - The SMB market is seen as a vast opportunity, with PayPal aiming to consolidate services under one platform to better serve small businesses [89] Question: How does PayPal plan to differentiate its guest checkout experience? - PayPal's Fastlane product is highlighted as the best converting guest checkout experience, with a strategy for multiprocessor adoption to enhance scalability [95]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has expanded its presence in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) market through partnerships with Costco and Mattress Firm, aimed at facilitating consumer financing for larger purchases during sales events [1][4]. Group 1: Partnerships and Offerings - Customers at Costco.com can utilize Affirm for online transactions of $500 or more, with real-time eligibility checks and transparent monthly payment options [2]. - The partnership with Mattress Firm allows customers to access flexible bi-weekly and monthly payment plans in over 2,200 stores, featuring potentially 0% APR during the Memorial Day Sale [3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Growth - These partnerships are expected to significantly increase Affirm's transaction volume and customer base, enhancing trust through association with reputable brands [5]. - Affirm's merchant network now includes over 358,000 partners, positioning the company as a competitive alternative to traditional credit [5]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Over the past year, Affirm's stock has increased by 75.1%, outperforming the industry growth rate of 32% [6].

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has experienced significant stock volatility following its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings report, with a sharp decline in stock price due to disappointing fourth-quarter guidance, followed by a rebound after announcing a new partnership with World Market [1][2]. Financial Performance - Affirm reported fiscal Q3 2025 earnings of $0.01 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.09 and improving from a loss of $0.43 in the prior year [3]. - Revenue increased by 36% year-over-year to $783.1 million, aligning with the company's guidance range of $755–$785 million [3]. - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $8.6 billion, up 36% from the previous year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.1 billion [4]. - Transactions totaled 31.3 million, reflecting a 45.6% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by repeat customers [4]. Growth Prospects - The company anticipates Q4 revenue between $815-$845 million and GMV between $9.4-$9.7 billion, although this guidance fell short of Wall Street expectations [5]. - Repeat customer transactions accounted for 94% of total transactions in Q3, indicating strong brand loyalty and potential for more predictable revenue [6]. - Affirm is expanding internationally, with plans to enter Western Europe, starting with France, Germany, and the Netherlands, in partnership with Shopify [7]. Business Model and Innovations - Affirm's model benefits both merchants and consumers by reducing cart abandonment and offering flexible payment options, including 0% APR monthly installments, which rose 44% year-over-year and accounted for 13% of GMV [8]. - The company is investing in complementary financial products, such as debit solutions and business-to-business tools, to enhance customer relationships and usage frequency [9]. Earnings Estimates and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a 95.8% year-over-year improvement in fiscal 2025 earnings, with fiscal 2026 earnings expected to surge nearly 960% [10]. - Revenue projections for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are expected to grow by 36.9% and 23.3%, respectively [10]. - Affirm's stock has increased by 67% over the past year, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [11]. Competitive Landscape - Affirm is trading at a premium valuation of 4.47X forward 12-month sales, higher than its three-year median of 3.49X, while competitors PayPal and Block are trading at 2.09X and 1.39X, respectively [14]. - The BNPL market remains competitive, with traditional financial institutions and credit card companies entering the space, exemplified by Walmart's switch from Affirm to Klarna [18]. Conclusion - Affirm's fiscal Q3 performance showcased strong revenue growth and rising transaction volumes, particularly from loyal customers, alongside an expanding merchant network and international market push [19]. - However, challenges such as elevated debt levels, rising expenses, and intense competition may impact margin stability and market share expansion [19].