CSI 300 ETFs

Search documents
瑞银:A股2025年下半年展望-五类资金流向与五种宏观情景配置
瑞银· 2025-06-18 00:54
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several A-share stocks, including PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and NAURA Technology, among others, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a 6% year-over-year growth in CSI 300 A-share EPS for 2025, driven by a low base effect and potential policy easing, despite deflationary pressures limiting upward revisions [2][27]. - A-share valuations are expected to remain range-bound in the near term due to uncertainties surrounding US-China trade relations, but medium-term catalysts could arise from stronger policy easing and structural reforms [2][40]. - The "national team" (Central Huijin) has played a significant role in stabilizing the A-share market, particularly during periods of market correction, with substantial investments in CSI 300 ETFs [3][60]. Fund Flows and Market Styles - The report identifies five types of fund flows impacting market styles amid macro uncertainties, including significant inflows from the "national team," medium/long-term investors favoring high-dividend stocks, and retail investors driving small-cap outperformance [3][60]. - The report notes that high-dividend stocks have attracted long-term investors, particularly insurers, as they seek to mitigate risks associated with falling risk-free rates [65][66]. Sector Preferences and Investment Themes - The report outlines sector preferences based on different macro scenarios, suggesting that export-oriented sectors may benefit from trade friction de-escalation, while defensive sectors could be favored in adverse conditions [4]. - It highlights that consumption and property sectors may see the most benefit from stronger policy stimulus, while AI and services sectors could attract inflows under modest easing conditions [4]. Top A-share Picks - The report lists top A-share picks within UBS-S coverage, including PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and NAURA Technology, with respective price targets and expected upside percentages [5].