热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月1日 本周宏观情绪偏强，带动油粕上行，周末随着情绪回吐以及澳菜籽成功入榨，油粕出现分化，菜粕回吐 较多。随着菜籽供应恢复兑现，后期油厂压榨将逐步增加，需要关注榨利兑现情况以及后期菜籽进口买 船装运节奏。 中国陆续采购加菜籽，ICE菜籽震荡 中加经贸缓和以来，市场陆续出现加菜籽进口成交，成交数量至少在10船以上，部分乐观预期或达15船 以上，平均来看3-5月月均进口可能在5船左右，折合30万吨以上。尽管如此，本周ICE菜籽反弹相对有 限，主力合约徘徊在650加元/吨左右。目前加菜籽累计出口仍同比偏低35%以上，暗示着外盘仍有潜在 供应压力。 首批澳菜籽顺利入榨，关注新船装运情况 本周首批澳菜籽成功通关入榨，菜粕基差报价环比走强，后期油粕交投氛围有望改善。由于中加菜籽贸 易缓和，澳菜籽进口预期有一定恶化，但在前期已经累计采购较多澳菜籽的前提下，后期仍需关注新一 轮澳菜籽装运情况。总的来看，3月以前油厂菜籽供应仍主要取决于澳菜籽，而年 ...

Canola Industry Impact - The Chinese market is effectively closed to the Canadian canola industry due to new tariffs, impacting the entire value chain from farms to processing [1] - Canada is facing 100% tariffs on canola oil and meal, alongside preliminary duties of 75.8% on canola seed, significantly affecting exports [2] - The canola sector is calling for political engagement with China to resolve these trade tensions, emphasizing the need for political solutions [7] Electric Vehicle (EV) Tariffs - Canada imposed a federal surtax on China-made EVs to align with the U.S., which had previously increased its tariffs on such imports [3] - The Canadian government is reviewing its 100% tariffs on electric vehicles from China, assessing the appropriateness of the surtax rate and scope [6] - The auto sector argues that maintaining tariffs is essential to protect local industries from unfair competition, while some advocates suggest removing barriers could provide cheaper vehicles and help meet environmental goals [8][9] Economic Contributions and Comparisons - The canola sector reportedly contributes $43.7 billion to the Canadian economy and employs about 200,000 people, although these figures are contested [15] - A contrasting analysis indicates that canola farming and processing contributed only $5 billion to GDP and employed 21,576 people, compared to the automotive sector's $19.1 billion contribution and 118,120 jobs [15][16] - The debate highlights a division between Western agricultural interests and Eastern industrial priorities, with calls for the government to balance support for both sectors [14]