热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月1日 本周宏观情绪偏强，带动油粕上行，周末随着情绪回吐以及澳菜籽成功入榨，油粕出现分化，菜粕回吐 较多。随着菜籽供应恢复兑现，后期油厂压榨将逐步增加，需要关注榨利兑现情况以及后期菜籽进口买 船装运节奏。 中国陆续采购加菜籽，ICE菜籽震荡 中加经贸缓和以来，市场陆续出现加菜籽进口成交，成交数量至少在10船以上，部分乐观预期或达15船 以上，平均来看3-5月月均进口可能在5船左右，折合30万吨以上。尽管如此，本周ICE菜籽反弹相对有 限，主力合约徘徊在650加元/吨左右。目前加菜籽累计出口仍同比偏低35%以上，暗示着外盘仍有潜在 供应压力。 首批澳菜籽顺利入榨，关注新船装运情况 本周首批澳菜籽成功通关入榨，菜粕基差报价环比走强，后期油粕交投氛围有望改善。由于中加菜籽贸 易缓和，澳菜籽进口预期有一定恶化，但在前期已经累计采购较多澳菜籽的前提下，后期仍需关注新一 轮澳菜籽装运情况。总的来看，3月以前油厂菜籽供应仍主要取决于澳菜籽，而年 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Agri-food - **Countries**: China and Canada Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Trade Agreement Overview**: A new trade agreement between China and Canada was announced, involving the removal of punitive tariffs on Chinese EVs and a reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola seeds, establishing a "new strategic partnership" [3][4][5] 2. **Impact on EV Exports**: The quota for Chinese EVs set at 49,000 units annually represents less than 3% of Canada's total new vehicle market, indicating a limited impact on China's overall export growth [2][3][9] 3. **Projected Economic Benefits**: The agreement is expected to unlock nearly CAD3 billion in export orders for Canadian producers, with a target of increasing Canadian exports to China by 50% by 2030 [4][27] 4. **Market Dynamics**: The new quota aligns closely with pre-tariff levels of Chinese EV exports to Canada, with expectations that over 50% of imported vehicles will be affordable models priced under CAD35,000 within five years [4][8] 5. **Macroeconomic Implications**: The overall macroeconomic impact on China is expected to be limited, with the additional revenue from this agreement representing under 0.1% of total export value [9][15] 6. **Geopolitical Context**: The agreement signifies a potential easing of trade tensions and barriers, enhancing China's diplomatic leverage amid changing geopolitical dynamics [2][15] Additional Important Content 1. **Local Manufacturing and Investment**: The agreement includes expectations for joint-venture investments in Canada, which may necessitate increased Chinese investment and technology transfers, raising concerns about intellectual property and compliance with local regulations [16] 2. **Canola Seed Tariff Reduction**: The reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola seeds from 85% to approximately 15% is expected to stabilize China's domestic edible oil supply chains, which are heavily reliant on Canadian imports [17][25] 3. **Trade Flow Disruptions**: Previous tensions under the Trudeau administration led to significant disruptions in trade flows, particularly affecting canola, valued at around CAD4 billion annually [5][18] 4. **Future Uncertainties**: There are uncertainties regarding the compliance of the trade agreement with the USMCA, which is up for renegotiation, potentially impacting the long-term viability of the deal [26] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the implications of the trade agreement between China and Canada, particularly in the EV and agri-food sectors.