Key Takeaways Carnival shares fell 18.6% as rising costs, dry-dock plans and Caribbean capacity debate pressured sentiment.Record 2026 bookings and strong 2027 momentum reflect resilient demand and broad pricing strength.Celebration Key and RelaxAway expansions boost yields and reinforce Carnival's competitive positioning.Shares of Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) have declined 18.6% in the past three months compared with the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry’s 14.3% fall and the Zacks Consumer ...

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is set to launch a redesigned loyalty program, Carnival Rewards, in June 2026, shifting from a cruise-day-based model to one that links tier progression to total guest spend, including onboard purchases and co-branded credit card transactions [1][6]. Group 1: Customer Engagement Strategy - The new loyalty program is viewed as a long-term differentiator aimed at enhancing customer lifetime value and increasing engagement across the fleet [2]. - The transition is expected to be revenue-deferral intensive initially, with an estimated yield reduction of approximately 50 basis points in 2026, but the program is projected to be cash flow positive from the start [2][6]. - Management anticipates that it will take about two years for redemptions and recognized revenues to fully offset deferred amounts, making the program accretive to yields beyond 2028 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - Onboard revenues are strengthening, with onboard spending in Q2 of fiscal 2025 exceeding expectations due to strong demand in various discretionary services [4]. - With over 93% of full-year 2025 capacity booked and minimal new ship deliveries through 2026, maximizing per-guest revenues is central to Carnival's strategy, and the new loyalty structure is expected to incentivize pre-cruise and onboard purchases [5]. - CCL shares have surged 65.7% in the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 35.6%, while other competitors like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line have also seen significant gains [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - CCL is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 13.89X, below the industry average of 20.08X, indicating a potential undervaluation [7]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL's fiscal 2025 earnings per share has been revised upward from $1.88 to $1.99 over the past 30 days, reflecting strong analyst confidence [8]. - Projections indicate a 40.1% rise in CCL's fiscal 2025 earnings, compared to expected increases of 31.4%, 10.4%, and 16.5% for competitors Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise, and OneSpaWorld, respectively [12].

Core Insights - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is focusing on its loyalty program strategy to enhance guest engagement and drive additional revenues, with strong cruising demand expected to continue into 2025 [1][8] - Customer deposits reached $6.33 billion as of March 31, 2025, an increase from $5.5 billion in the previous year, indicating robust forward demand [1] Loyalty Program and Guest Engagement - Loyalty members accounted for nearly 40% of bookings in 2024 and spent 25% more per trip, demonstrating strong engagement and supporting the company's retention efforts for 2025 and beyond [2] - There is a notable increase in cross-brand bookings among loyalty members, indicating a preference for staying within the Royal Caribbean Group ecosystem [2] - Loyalty members show a higher inclination for direct bookings, aided by a doubling of mobile app usage for bookings in 2025, which helps reduce distribution costs [2] Enhancements and New Offerings - Royal Caribbean is enhancing its guest ecosystem with destination-driven improvements, such as the upcoming Royal Beach Club in Nassau, aimed at increasing guest satisfaction and maximizing ancillary spending [3] - The company is building loyalty across various touchpoints, including exclusive locations and digital booking flows, which supports higher guest value and repeat travel [3] Industry Trends - Other cruise lines, such as Carnival Corporation and Norwegian Cruise Line, are also evolving their loyalty strategies to enhance guest retention and spending [4] - Carnival is shifting its loyalty model to reward total spend rather than just cruise nights, with a new program called "Carnival Rewards" aimed at creating a more personalized loyalty experience [5] - Norwegian Cruise is focusing on operational refinements and experiential upgrades without introducing a spend-based loyalty framework, maintaining its loyalty proposition based on cruise frequency [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - Royal Caribbean's shares have increased by 86.3% over the past three months, outperforming the industry's growth of 43% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.82X, significantly higher than the industry's average of 2.5X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RCL's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase of 30.7% and 14.5%, respectively, with EPS estimates for 2025 having risen in the past 60 days [12]

Core Insights - Consumer demand for experiential travel is rebounding, benefiting cruise operators like Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) [1] - Both companies are leveraging strong brand portfolios and improving fundamentals to capitalize on elevated demand and pricing power [1] Carnival Corporation (CCL) - Carnival is achieving robust yield growth and operational momentum, exceeding its 2026 targets for EBITDA per berth growth and return on invested capital 18 months ahead of schedule [3] - The company is set to launch Celebration Key, a flagship private Caribbean destination, and is enhancing its "Paradise Collection" strategy with upgrades to existing destinations [4] - Carnival is revamping its fleet and launching a new loyalty program, Carnival Rewards, expected to boost guest engagement [5] - Financially, Carnival has refinanced $7 billion of debt and improved its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio from 4.1x to 3.7x in Q2 2025, focusing on regaining investment-grade status [6] Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) - Royal Caribbean is executing its "Perfecta Performance" strategy, reporting yield growth of 5.6% and a 35% EBITDA margin in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand and pricing power [7] - The company is expanding its exclusive destination portfolio with the Royal Beach Club in Nassau, aimed at enhancing guest engagement and boosting ancillary revenues [8] - RCL's digital initiatives, including a widely adopted mobile app, are improving direct bookings and revenue capture [9] - However, RCL faces near-term cost pressures related to ship deployment and elevated expenses tied to destination rollouts and dry dock activities [10] Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival's fiscal 2025 sales and EPS suggests increases of 5.4% and 38%, respectively, with earnings estimates rising 3.8% in the past 60 days [11] - For Royal Caribbean, the estimates indicate year-over-year increases of 9.4% in sales and 30.7% in EPS, with a 6% rise in earnings estimates over the same period [13] - Carnival stock has increased by 31.7% over the past three months, while Royal Caribbean shares have risen by 42.6% [15] - Carnival's forward P/E ratio is 12.92X, below the industry average of 18.59X, while RCL's is 17.92X [18] Investment Outlook - Carnival presents a more attractive near-term buying opportunity due to operational efficiency and financial gains, while RCL may require a wait-and-see approach due to cost pressures [27][28]

Group 1: Core Strategy and Program Launch - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is set to launch "Carnival Rewards," a new customer loyalty program in June 2026, aimed at enhancing long-term guest engagement through data-driven personalization and monetization [1][9] - The new program will reward guests based on total spending, including onboard expenditures and co-branded credit card usage, moving away from the traditional model based on cumulative cruise days [2][9] - The initiative is expected to generate positive cash flow initially, but will result in a temporary yield reduction of approximately 50 basis points in 2026, with expectations of becoming accretive by 2028 [3][9] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) operates a unified loyalty program focused on vacation frequency and experiential engagement, with loyalty members accounting for 40% of total bookings in 2024 and spending 25% more per trip than non-members [5] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is enhancing its fleet and destination offerings but has not yet introduced a spend-based loyalty framework, maintaining a focus on cruise frequency [6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - CCL shares have increased by 22.8% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 8.5% [7] - CCL trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.70X, significantly lower than the industry average of 18.32X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings increase of 32.4% for fiscal 2025 and 13.7% for fiscal 2026, with EPS estimates for fiscal 2025 having risen in the past 30 days [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record revenues and yields for eight consecutive quarters, with EBITDA up 26%, operating income increasing by 67%, and net income more than tripling year-over-year [9][10]. - Net income exceeded guidance by $185 million, driven by strong performance across all metrics [28]. - Yields grew by almost 6.5%, surpassing guidance by 200 basis points, with both ticket and onboard spending outperforming expectations [9][28]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer deposits reached an all-time high, increasing by over $250 million compared to the previous year [30]. - Cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day (ALBD) were up 3.5%, which was 200 basis points better than guidance [29][30]. - The company reported that EBITDA margins were 200 basis points higher than 2019 levels, marking the highest margins achieved in nearly twenty years [10][12]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a strong close in demand across all core programs, contributing to improved ticket prices and onboard spending [28]. - The company is 93% booked for 2025, indicating strong demand despite geopolitical uncertainties [66]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to set new targets in early Q2 next year after exceeding its 2026 fee change targets ahead of schedule [11][13]. - The launch of Celebration Key, a new private island destination, is expected to enhance customer experience and drive demand [17][19]. - The company is focused on achieving yield improvement by driving demand that outpaces supply, with significant investments in marketing and fleet enhancements [21][22]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but stated that it has not yet had a discernible impact on business [6][7]. - The company remains optimistic about its ability to meet or exceed guidance, despite acknowledging a more unpredictable environment [15][69]. - Management indicated that onboard spending has remained strong even during periods of volatility, suggesting resilience in consumer behavior [74]. Other Important Information - The company has successfully met its carbon intensity reduction target, achieving a 20% reduction compared to 2019 levels [12]. - The new loyalty program, Carnival Rewards, is expected to enhance customer engagement and increase lifetime value, although it may have a short-term impact on yields [24][36]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you speak to improvements in product and experience that are translating to pricing and onboard spend? - Management highlighted ongoing incremental improvements across the business, emphasizing the importance of innovation and guest experience [46][49]. Question: What are the pricing expectations for Celebration Key itineraries? - Management confirmed that Celebration Key is seeing a premium in pricing, aligning with expectations, and marketing efforts are being ramped up [56][57]. Question: How has booking demand been affected by recent geopolitical events? - Management noted volatility in bookings during April, but improvements were seen in May and June, indicating a recovery in demand [66][68]. Question: Can you characterize demand for Europe in Q3? - Management reported strong demand for Europe in Q3, with onboard revenues outperforming expectations [75][76]. Question: What is the impact of the new loyalty program on customer engagement? - Management stated that the new loyalty program is designed to enhance engagement without pushing for direct bookings, benefiting both the company and travel agents [60].