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美洲娱乐:前排报告:影院行业及票房追踪,2025年5月
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-05 02:50
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the theater industry or specific companies like Cinemark and IMAX Core Insights - Domestic Box Office (DBO) is tracking +26% Year-to-Date (YTD) through May 2025 compared to the previous year, but remains -28% YTD compared to 2019 levels [4] - The second quarter DBO is projected to be $3.0 billion, representing a +55% increase YoY and -8% compared to 2019 [4] - Cinemark's attendance is up +18% YTD through May, with fluctuations in market share observed [3][30] - Consumer sentiment metrics indicate that Cinemark outperforms peers in areas such as pricing and concessions, although it has lost some ground in screen and sound quality [9][60][66] Box Office Performance - The DBO for May 2025 showed a significant increase of +76% YoY [13] - Major titles like "Sinners," "Final Destination: Bloodlines," and "Lilo & Stitch" have performed well, while big action titles like "Thunderbolts" and "Mission Impossible 8" have underperformed [4][39] - The report anticipates a total DBO of $9.5 billion for 2025, with an increase in expectations for 2Q25 DBO by +$90 million [10] Attendance and Market Share - Cinemark's mobile app downloads increased by +86% YoY in May, with monthly active users (MAUs) up +33% [49][51] - Attendance data from Placer AI indicates that Cinemark's theater attendance is +54% YoY in May [30] - Cinemark has maintained market share gains post-COVID, attributed to investments in quality and loyalty programs [21] Consumer Sentiment - Net Purchase Intent (NPI) for Cinemark remained flat month-over-month in April 2025, indicating positive consumer sentiment compared to peers [9][60] - Cinemark has consistently outperformed competitors in consumer sentiment metrics related to pricing and concessions [60][64] Film-by-Film Estimates - The report includes detailed film-by-film estimates for 2024-2026, indicating a strong pipeline of upcoming releases that could impact box office performance [71]